Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.87 · now $3.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATOM has typically landed between $2.59 and $6.15 — a range of −33.1% to +59.0% from the issuance price $3.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,520 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-08-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATOM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.63 (-6.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.01–$4.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.59–$6.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,520 windows spanning 2016-08-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-15 | −54.5% | −54.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-17 | −54.2% | −54.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-16 | −54.2% | −54.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-20 | +199.1% | −0.9% | +199.1% |
| 2020-12-09 | +182.3% | +0.0% | +182.3% |
| 2020-12-16 | +181.3% | +0.0% | +181.3% |
2,520 overlapping windows · 2016-08-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
70%
+16.3%
n=10
Feb
50%
+3.9%
n=10
Mar
20%
−12.0%
n=10
Apr
40%
+9.2%
n=10
May
80%
+20.7%
n=10
Jun
40%
−2.8%
n=10
Jul
40%
−0.8%
n=10
Aug
30%
−8.1%
n=10
Sep
18%
−3.6%
n=11
Oct
20%
−6.9%
n=10
Nov
50%
+4.4%
n=10
Dec
50%
+9.6%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 6,312 @ $3.87 | $24K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 258,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 5,446 @ $4.05 | $22K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 682,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 4,515 @ $4.05 | $18K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 687,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,515 @ $4.05 | $10K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 2,192 @ $4.05 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 267,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,085 @ $4.05 | $8K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 247,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 1,988 @ $4.05 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 691,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 1,807 @ $4.05 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 693,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,515 @ $4.05 | $6K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 265,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 1,020 @ $4.05 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $4.05 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 269,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 889 @ $4.05 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 266,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 884 @ $4.05 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 246,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 771 @ $4.05 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 264,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $5.05 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $8.40 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | −37.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $9.37 | $468K | −6.7% of holding | −39.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 695,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $9.44 | $118K | −4.7% of holding | −39.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 8,182 @ $9.46 | $77K | −2.9% of holding | −39.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 6,400 @ $9.44 | $60K | −2.5% of holding | −39.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $9.44 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | −39.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.75 | $88K | −3.6% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 8,012 @ $8.75 | $70K | −2.9% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.20 | $82K | −3.5% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 9,980 @ $8.20 | $82K | −3.6% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 8,863 @ $8.20 | $73K | −3.1% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 7,313 @ $8.50 | $62K | −2.5% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $8.20 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 5,534 @ $9.52 | $53K | −0.8% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 699,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 4,589 @ $9.52 | $44K | −0.6% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 705,152 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,555 @ $9.52 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 256,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 2,227 @ $9.52 | $21K | −0.8% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,119 @ $9.52 | $20K | −0.8% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,390 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 2,020 @ $9.52 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 697,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 1,837 @ $9.52 | $17K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 695,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,539 @ $9.52 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,854 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 1,037 @ $9.51 | $10K | −0.4% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 904 @ $9.51 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 899 @ $9.51 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 259,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 783 @ $9.52 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 4,935 @ $4.95 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 712,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,279 @ $4.95 | $11K | −1.5% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 145,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 2,173 @ $4.95 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 709,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 1,976 @ $4.95 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 717,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,695 @ $4.95 | $8K | −1.0% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 168,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 1,115 @ $4.95 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 148,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 995 @ $4.95 | $5K | −0.6% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 170,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 991 @ $4.95 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 711,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 967 @ $4.95 | $5K | −0.7% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 147,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 863 @ $4.95 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 171,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 438 @ $4.95 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 149,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 426 @ $4.95 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | −22.3% | −33.0% | 172,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 21,834 @ $7.25 | $158K | −11.6% of holding | −29.7% | −43.4% | 166,082 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 4,576 @ $2.39 | $11K | −0.9% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 508,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 2,114 @ $2.39 | $5K | −1.3% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 166,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 2,015 @ $2.39 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 513,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 1,832 @ $2.39 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 506,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Mears Robert J | officer | Sale | 1,540 @ $2.39 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 186,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Sale | 1,035 @ $2.39 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 168,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Sale | 918 @ $2.39 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | −8.5% | +265.2% | 507,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 745,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 265,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 280,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 6,400 | 259,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 254,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 16,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 179,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 6,400 | 11,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 28,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 278,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 32,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 287,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 8,115 | 287,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 42,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 28,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mears Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 8,115 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Gerber John | director | Award / grant | 14,302 | 332,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | SHEVICK STEVEN K | director | Award / grant | 14,302 | 142,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | LE DUY LOAN T | director | Award / grant | 14,302 | 134,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Ramnath Suja | director | Award / grant | 14,302 | 86,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Award / grant | 78,888 | 78,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Mears Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 32,868 | 32,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Mears Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 65,736 | 65,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Award / grant | 170,920 | 170,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Award / grant | 85,460 | 85,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Award / grant | 39,444 | 39,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 57,252 | 226,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Award / grant | 62,022 | 533,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Award / grant | 28,626 | 174,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Award / grant | 28,626 | 259,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Award / grant | 57,252 | 231,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Award / grant | 124,044 | 657,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 28,626 | 254,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Award / grant | 62,022 | 719,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mears Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 28,626 | 283,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 21,834 | 187,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Laurencio Francis | officer | Option exercise | 21,834 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | BIBAUD SCOTT A. | director | Option exercise | 70,172 | 594,837 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.