ATOAtmos Energy CorporationUtilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $161.96 · now $162.03 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATO has typically landed between $151.14 and $175.62 — a range of −6.7% to +8.4% from the issuance price $161.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($161.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ATO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $161.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$151.14worst · -6.7%$175.62best · +8.4%
  • now $162.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $164.29 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $159.2–$169.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $151.14–$175.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,686 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−32.2%−32.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−27.3%−27.3%+0.0%
2020-02-24−23.8%−30.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+27.1%+0.0%+37.5%
2011-08-08+18.8%+0.0%+19.6%
2021-12-01+17.2%+0.0%+17.2%

4,686 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.9B
market cap
$8.13
EPS (TTM)
22.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$4.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr25.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.69
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $162.03$-195.83$229.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-166.51
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$183.53
  • Analyst target · range $183.00–$200.00$186.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-17$162.03

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Mar
79%
+3.9%
n=19
Apr
74%
+2.5%
n=19
May
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Jul
84%
+3.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$191$1602026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $50K — WARE WILLIAM JAMES2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $77K — DONOHUE SEAN2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $77K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector WARE WILLIAM JAMES — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONOHUE SEAN — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11WARE WILLIAM JAMESdirectorPurchase300 @ $167.59$50K+159.6% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open488Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03DONOHUE SEANdirectorSale450 @ $171.15$77K−33.9% of holding−3.4%−7.9%877Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14COCKLIN KIM RdirectorSale15,000 @ $150.98$2.3M−8.0% of holding−0.6%+1.1%172,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-11-11Geiser EdwarddirectorPurchase2,500 @ $144.89$362K+2451.0% of holding−5.1%+8.7%2,602Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15ROBBINS J MATTofficerGift1,50025,866Form 4
2026-09-01Jeffries James Henry IVdirectorAward / grant1,0001,000Form 4
2026-07-01Geiser EdwarddirectorAward / grant1881,689Form 4
2026-07-01GARZA RAFAEL GdirectorAward / grant65257Form 4
2026-05-02AKERS JOHN KdirectorOption exercise16,850142,214Form 4
2026-05-02AKERS JOHN KdirectorWithheld for tax6,235135,979Form 4
2026-05-02Forsythe Christopher TofficerOption exercise3,97063,585Form 4
2026-05-02HARTSFIELD KAREN EofficerOption exercise2,81534,028Form 4
2026-05-02MCDILL JOHN SofficerOption exercise2,81537,414Form 4
2026-05-02ROBBINS J MATTofficerOption exercise2,81528,408Form 4
2026-05-02Forsythe Christopher TofficerWithheld for tax1,56362,022Form 4
2026-05-02MCDILL JOHN SofficerWithheld for tax1,04236,372Form 4
2026-05-02ROBBINS J MATTofficerWithheld for tax1,04227,366Form 4
2026-05-02HARTSFIELD KAREN EofficerWithheld for tax1,04232,986Form 4
2026-05-02FAULK MICHELLEofficerOption exercise1751,272Form 4
2026-05-02FAULK MICHELLEofficerWithheld for tax701,202Form 4
2026-05-02FAULK MICHELLEofficerOption exercise175650Form 4
2026-05-02HARTSFIELD KAREN EofficerOption exercise2,8154,195Form 4
2026-05-02Forsythe Christopher TofficerOption exercise3,9706,220Form 4
2026-05-02AKERS JOHN KdirectorOption exercise16,85026,365Form 4
2026-05-02ROBBINS J MATTofficerOption exercise2,8154,195Form 4
2026-05-02MCDILL JOHN SofficerOption exercise2,8154,195Form 4
2026-04-01Geiser EdwarddirectorAward / grant1761,492Form 4
2026-04-01GARZA RAFAEL GdirectorAward / grant60192Form 4
2026-03-07COMPTON KELLY HdirectorOption exercise1,0827,959Form 4
2026-03-07Ale John C.directorOption exercise1,0821,082Form 4
2026-03-07COCKLIN KIM RdirectorOption exercise1,082173,714Form 4
2026-03-07COMPTON KELLY HdirectorOption exercise1,082920Form 4
2026-03-07COCKLIN KIM RdirectorOption exercise1,0820Form 4
2026-03-07Ale John C.directorOption exercise1,082920Form 4
2026-03-06WARE WILLIAM JAMESdirectorAward / grant920920Form 4
2026-03-06Coogler Mitzi HdirectorAward / grant920920Form 4
2026-03-06Geiser EdwarddirectorAward / grant9203,051Form 4
2026-03-06QUINN NANCY KdirectorAward / grant92067,991Form 4
2026-03-06COCKLIN KIM RdirectorAward / grant920920Form 4
2026-03-06DONOHUE SEANdirectorAward / grant9209,792Form 4
2026-03-06GARZA RAFAEL GdirectorAward / grant92022,666Form 4
2026-03-06TOLIVER TELISAdirectorAward / grant9203,051Form 4
2026-03-06YOHO FRANK HdirectorAward / grant9209,313Form 4
2026-03-06COMPTON KELLY HdirectorAward / grant9202,002Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
John BoozmanSenatesale2026-07-132026-06-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2026-01-162025-12-02$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-19$15–50K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2025-06-142025-05-20$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2024-12-092024-11-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2024-08-212023-09-01$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2024-08-062024-07-05$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-04-172023-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-02-082022-01-20$15–50K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousesale2021-02-232021-01-28$1–15K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousepurchase2021-02-232021-01-13$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2020-10-092020-09-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.