ATLOAmes National CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.13 · now $32.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATLO has typically landed between $29.28 and $35.73 — a range of −8.9% to +11.2% from the issuance price $32.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-262026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ATLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.28worst · -8.9%$35.73best · +11.2%
  • now $32.13 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.52 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.27$33.78
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.28$35.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-09−42.7%−43.2%+0.0%
2009-01-16−41.9%−41.9%+0.0%
2009-02-05−40.7%−40.7%+5.2%
3 best
2008-07-15+54.3%+0.0%+56.4%
2008-07-02+41.9%−4.4%+54.2%
2008-07-14+41.8%−4.5%+49.4%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-262026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.4%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.3%
n=20
May
40%
−1.1%
n=20
Jun
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
25%
−2.6%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Nov
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
+4.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$33$182026-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Baker Jeffery C2026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Cassabaum Michelle R2026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Beals Douglas W2026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Schreier Richard2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $4K — Cassabaum Michelle R2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Cassabaum Michelle R2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Hagan Patrick G2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Hagan Patrick G2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Cassabaum Michelle R2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Cassabaum Michelle R2026-01-30: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Cassabaum Michelle R2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Trost Scot A.2025-12-02: 1 insider purchase, $434 — Bauer Scott T2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $4K — Swartz Kevin L2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $4K — PUTZIER JEFFREY K2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $11K — Beals Douglas W2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $916 — Cassabaum Michelle R2025-10-24: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Hagan Patrick G2025-08-29: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Cassabaum Michelle R2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2025-10: 2 open-market purchases, $7K2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $19K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $5K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $7K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $13K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $4K2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $26K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $10K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Baker Jeffery C — Purchase on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beals Douglas W — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeother Schreier Richard — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector Hagan Patrick G — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed same daydirector Hagan Patrick G — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed same daydirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed same daydirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Trost Scot A. — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed same dayother Bauer Scott T — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Swartz Kevin L — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradeother PUTZIER JEFFREY K — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beals Douglas W — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hagan Patrick G — Purchase on 2025-10-24, filed same daydirector Cassabaum Michelle R — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Baker Jeffery CdirectorPurchase300 @ $31.88$10K+8.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase180 @ $31.54$6K+1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,308Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20Beals Douglas WdirectorPurchase325 @ $31.16$10K+11.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14Schreier RichardotherPurchase316 @ $31.60$10K+4.2% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open7,848Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase140 @ $30.20$4K+1.4% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open10,128Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase170 @ $28.83$5K+1.7% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open9,988Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase200 @ $27.69$6K+2.1% of holding+8.0%not yet — horizon still open9,600Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase100 @ $27.65$3K+1.1% of holding+9.0%not yet — horizon still open9,400Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-30Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase84 @ $28.08$2K+0.9% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open9,818Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase205 @ $27.25$6K+2.2% of holding+10.6%+5.3%9,734Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase280 @ $26.11$7K+3.1% of holding+5.9%+10.4%9,193Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-10Trost Scot A.directorPurchase200 @ $22.88$5K+25.0% of holding−3.2%+23.3%1,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-02Bauer Scott TotherPurchase20 @ $21.68$434+0.5% of holding+5.4%+26.5%4,009Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Swartz Kevin LdirectorPurchase200 @ $20.80$4K+3.9% of holding+3.2%+21.7%5,380Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-17PUTZIER JEFFREY KotherPurchase200 @ $21.25$4K+5.5% of holding+13.7%+26.0%3,827Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13Beals Douglas WdirectorPurchase500 @ $21.37$11K+20.4% of holding+11.6%+22.8%2,950Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-31Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase44 @ $20.82$916+0.5% of holding+3.9%+32.3%8,913Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-24Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase300 @ $20.85$6K+3.3% of holding+4.1%+34.1%9,300Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-29Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase278 @ $19.83$6K+3.2% of holding−2.4%+31.3%8,869Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase164 @ $18.29$3K+1.9% of holding+9.8%+37.4%8,591Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20Baker Jeffery CdirectorPurchase500 @ $17.18$9K+17.0% of holding+0.8%+26.8%3,449Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-11Johnson Dan EotherPurchase210 @ $17.75$4K+15.6% of holding−0.1%+21.5%1,558Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03Wilson Michael AofficerPurchase200 @ $17.50$4K+13.3% of holding−0.2%+8.8%1,700Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02BAUDLER HORRAS BETTY AdirectorPurchase100 @ $17.50$2K+0.5% of holding−0.9%+10.9%22,275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase314 @ $17.54$6K+3.9% of holding−0.8%+10.1%8,427Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-28BAUDLER HORRAS BETTY AdirectorPurchase100 @ $17.52$2K+0.5% of holding−3.2%+12.1%22,175Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Beals Douglas WdirectorPurchase400 @ $17.29$7K+19.5% of holding−3.8%+11.5%2,450Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-22Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase200 @ $17.65$4K+2.3% of holding−1.3%+10.8%9,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21Schreier RichardotherPurchase279 @ $17.90$5K+4.0% of holding−3.2%+5.2%7,276Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21Snodgrass AdamotherPurchase200 @ $17.80$4K+22.6% of holding−3.2%+5.2%1,084Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Thomas Robert AotherPurchase164 @ $17.75$3K+7.7% of holding−2.6%+7.1%2,300Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Thomas Robert AotherPurchase36 @ $17.65$635+1.7% of holding−3.4%+6.9%2,136Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Beals Douglas WdirectorPurchase275 @ $17.59$5K+15.5% of holding−4.0%−0.5%2,050Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-30Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase122 @ $17.05$2K+1.5% of holding−4.9%−2.4%8,113Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase500 @ $16.65$8K+6.0% of holding−3.5%+2.4%8,800Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25Clausen Justin CofficerPurchase119 @ $16.81$2K+13.1% of holding−1.6%+3.0%1,025Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-28Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase288 @ $18.62$5K+3.7% of holding−1.1%−0.4%7,991Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-31Cassabaum Michelle RdirectorPurchase70 @ $18.14$1K+1.0% of holding+5.8%−2.3%7,374Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Hagan Patrick GdirectorPurchase200 @ $16.75$3K+2.5% of holding+5.4%+6.3%8,300Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-06Johnson Dan EotherPurchase210 @ $17.23$4K+19.4% of holding−1.4%+4.6%1,291Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-05Trost Scot A.directorPurchase200 @ $17.56$4K+33.3% of holding−2.3%+4.5%800Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Wilson Michael AofficerPurchase300 @ $17.51$5K+25.0% of holding−4.2%+5.2%1,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.