Issued 2026-09-16 at $189.65 · now $189.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATI has typically landed between $162.27 and $235.69 — a range of −14.4% to +24.3% from the issuance price $189.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($189.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $189.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $189.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $197.49 (+4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $181.07–$213.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $162.27–$235.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −74.4% | −74.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −71.2% | −73.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −69.2% | −69.2% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-02-02 | +84.3% | +0.0% | +85.0% |
| 2020-11-04 | +79.5% | +0.0% | +79.5% |
| 2016-02-03 | +73.0% | +0.0% | +73.0% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.4%
n=18
Feb
68%
+9.4%
n=19
Mar
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+5.3%
n=19
May
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
42%
−1.6%
n=19
Aug
37%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
58%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $193.06 | $3.2M | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 97,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $207.54 | $3.4M | −12.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Morehouse David J | director | Sale | 2,485 @ $201.61 | $501K | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $210.01 | $3.5M | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $206.92 | $3.4M | −10.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 9,116 @ $231.72 | $2.1M | −8.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 8,131 @ $230.66 | $1.9M | −6.6% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 4,598 @ $232.43 | $1.1M | −4.4% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $229.56 | $459K | −1.6% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $228.32 | $228K | −0.8% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 31,757 @ $190.99 | $6.1M | −20.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 15,908 @ $183.50 | $2.9M | −8.9% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 11,826 @ $182.66 | $2.2M | −6.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 4,878 @ $184.34 | $899K | −3.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $181.36 | $399K | −1.1% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $180.00 | $360K | −1.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $179.25 | $359K | −1.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 400 @ $187.50 | $75K | −0.3% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 388 @ $185.10 | $72K | −0.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 200 @ $186.36 | $37K | −0.1% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 200 @ $180.85 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,121 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 3,783 @ $197.21 | $746K | −1.9% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-23 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 3,641 @ $197.48 | $719K | −1.8% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 201,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 13,269 @ $202.48 | $2.7M | −6.1% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 25,823 @ $177.97 | $4.6M | −9.3% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 13,865 @ $179.05 | $2.5M | −5.5% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 13,164 @ $179.71 | $2.4M | −5.5% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 3,001 @ $182.75 | $548K | −1.4% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $181.90 | $364K | −0.9% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,015 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 1,896 @ $180.80 | $343K | −0.8% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,015 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 11,982 @ $160.60 | $1.9M | −4.0% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 286,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 8,780 @ $161.12 | $1.4M | −3.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 6,420 @ $158.38 | $1.0M | −2.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 5,568 @ $156.29 | $870K | −1.8% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 3,350 @ $157.51 | $528K | −1.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $159.38 | $414K | −0.9% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $154.02 | $200K | −0.4% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Morehouse David J | director | Sale | 5,324 @ $154.53 | $823K | −12.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Morehouse David J | director | Sale | 1,285 @ $153.11 | $197K | −2.9% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 28,724 @ $146.07 | $4.2M | +11.4% of holding | +5.1% | +25.6% | 280,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 12,435 @ $144.01 | $1.8M | −3.8% of holding | +5.1% | +25.6% | 317,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 8,403 @ $145.17 | $1.2M | −2.6% of holding | +5.1% | +25.6% | 308,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 10,438 @ $146.67 | $1.5M | −3.7% of holding | +10.4% | +42.0% | 269,623 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 47,355 @ $109.57 | $5.2M | −26.3% of holding | +12.0% | +72.5% | 132,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 6,507 @ $108.86 | $708K | −3.5% of holding | +12.0% | +72.5% | 180,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 6,158 @ $110.34 | $679K | +5.1% of holding | +12.0% | +72.5% | 126,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 10,542 @ $97.88 | $1.0M | −9.7% of holding | +15.2% | +63.7% | 98,310 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Busch Tina Killough | officer | Sale | 2,598 @ $93.26 | $242K | −10.9% of holding | +15.8% | +61.5% | 21,274 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 26,998 @ $98.80 | $2.7M | −9.9% of holding | +9.3% | +50.2% | 246,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 24,711 @ $98.21 | $2.4M | −8.3% of holding | +9.3% | +50.2% | 273,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 10,542 @ $97.77 | $1.0M | −8.8% of holding | +9.3% | +50.2% | 108,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 8,291 @ $97.20 | $806K | −2.7% of holding | +9.3% | +50.2% | 298,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 10,543 @ $97.69 | $1.0M | −8.1% of holding | +12.1% | +55.9% | 119,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Sale | 10,543 @ $96.07 | $1.0M | −7.5% of holding | +3.2% | +60.4% | 129,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 21,153 @ $85.87 | $1.8M | −9.5% of holding | +17.3% | +90.3% | 202,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 21,154 @ $82.03 | $1.7M | −8.6% of holding | +14.2% | +85.7% | 223,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 20,312 @ $80.33 | $1.6M | −7.7% of holding | +4.9% | +88.8% | 244,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Sale | 15,941 @ $77.52 | $1.2M | −5.7% of holding | +8.3% | +105.7% | 265,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 40,777 @ $74.48 | $3.0M | −11.4% of holding | +0.2% | +61.3% | 315,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Sale | 7,220 @ $75.30 | $544K | −2.3% of holding | +0.2% | +61.3% | 308,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Foster James Robert | officer | Option exercise | 163 | 57,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lydon-Rodgers Jean | director | Award / grant | 905 | 1,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | BALL M LEROY | director | Award / grant | 905 | 34,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kah Marianne | director | Award / grant | 905 | 35,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Corvi Carolyn | director | Award / grant | 905 | 71,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Sharma Ruby | director | Award / grant | 905 | 7,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hess David P | director | Award / grant | 905 | 34,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lund Elizabeth Hefley | director | Award / grant | 905 | 1,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Morehouse David J | director | Award / grant | 1,743 | 38,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Carlisle Herbert J | director | Award / grant | 905 | 37,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Bhatia Vaishali S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,509 | 58,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Miller Michael Benjamin | officer | Withheld for tax | 413 | 7,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | BALL M LEROY | director | Gift | 350 | 33,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Withheld for tax | 72,907 | 405,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Withheld for tax | 69,369 | 293,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Withheld for tax | 38,871 | 274,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Withheld for tax | 32,352 | 324,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,918 | 140,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,283 | 166,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,453 | 56,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Withheld for tax | 16,021 | 389,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Fields Kimberly A | director | Withheld for tax | 7,028 | 317,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,359 | 163,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,835 | 60,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,256 | 57,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Bhatia Vaishali S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,944 | 61,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Miller Michael Benjamin | officer | Withheld for tax | 374 | 8,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Miller Michael Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 854 | 8,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Option exercise | 42,265 | 75,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Award / grant | 6,517 | 63,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Option exercise | 25,641 | 25,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Bhatia Vaishali S. | officer | Award / grant | 3,152 | 63,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Foster James Robert | officer | Award / grant | 3,127 | 32,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Award / grant | 2,677 | 100,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Option exercise | 70,442 | 171,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Award / grant | 46,318 | 186,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Harris Timothy J | officer | Option exercise | 25,641 | 25,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 362,644 | 186,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Award / grant | 185,276 | 478,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | WETHERBEE ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 64,103 | 64,102 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Macarthur | House | sale | 2015-06-07 | 2015-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2014-11-14 | 2014-10-28 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.