Issued 2026-09-16 at $76.22 · now $76.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATEX has typically landed between $63.70 and $98.17 — a range of −16.4% to +28.8% from the issuance price $76.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,901 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-02-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($76.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATEX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $76.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $76.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $75.09 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.72–$81.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.7–$98.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,901 windows spanning 2015-02-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-05-12 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +0.0% |
| 2016-05-13 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.1% |
| 2016-05-10 | −44.7% | −44.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-01 | +65.6% | −1.2% | +65.6% |
| 2026-06-08 | +61.3% | −2.6% | +63.4% |
| 2026-05-29 | +60.8% | +0.0% | +60.8% |
2,901 overlapping windows · 2015-02-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
+0.3%
n=11
Feb
73%
+13.2%
n=11
Mar
42%
−0.9%
n=12
Apr
50%
+3.9%
n=12
May
50%
−1.7%
n=12
Jun
25%
+3.6%
n=12
Jul
42%
−3.4%
n=12
Aug
67%
+3.5%
n=12
Sep
33%
−6.0%
n=12
Oct
45%
+1.1%
n=11
Nov
55%
+1.2%
n=11
Dec
45%
+0.0%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Martin Heather | officer | Sale | 8,064 @ $84.20 | $679K | −23.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | DANIELS LESLIE B | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $83.83 | $210K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ashe Gena L | director | Sale | 4,064 @ $85.44 | $347K | −44.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,174 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Ashe Gena L | director | Sale | 293 @ $85.44 | $25K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,238 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | DANIELS LESLIE B | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $87.31 | $253K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | DANIELS LESLIE B | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $86.50 | $104K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | DANIELS LESLIE B | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $87.15 | $523K | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,077 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 7,791 @ $92.77 | $723K | −12.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 7,580 @ $91.69 | $695K | −13.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 5,372 @ $93.59 | $503K | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,696 @ $90.61 | $244K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Sale | 4,418 @ $89.12 | $394K | −18.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Sale | 4,392 @ $88.18 | $387K | −15.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Sale | 790 @ $90.00 | $71K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Sale | 400 @ $91.01 | $36K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Heard William | director | Sale | 46,400 @ $90.11 | $4.2M | −2.7% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,670,338 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lang Scott A. | director | Sale | 18,797 @ $90.16 | $1.7M | −28.6% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,843 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lang Scott A. | director | Sale | 10,087 @ $90.87 | $917K | −13.3% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,640 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lang Scott A. | director | Sale | 5,373 @ $88.96 | $478K | −11.5% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,470 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lang Scott A. | director | Sale | 800 @ $91.69 | $73K | −1.0% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,727 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Sale | 1,654 @ $79.52 | $132K | −8.5% of holding | +41.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,731 | Form 4 · filed 69 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Lang Scott A. | director | Sale | 170 @ $80.25 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | +41.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Marquez Elena | officer | Sale | 4,291 @ $79.50 | $341K | −18.9% of holding | +28.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | YAZDI MAHVASH | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $80.00 | $560K | −26.5% of holding | +29.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 35,321 @ $81.32 | $2.9M | −20.9% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,923 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 26,411 @ $82.27 | $2.2M | −19.7% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 16,381 @ $83.72 | $1.4M | −15.2% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Sale | 13,324 @ $84.29 | $1.1M | −14.6% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Sale | 13,375 @ $81.04 | $1.1M | −49.1% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Sale | 4,336 @ $82.14 | $356K | −31.3% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,531 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Fleischhauer Mark | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $79.83 | $279K | −21.5% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Lang Scott A. | director | Purchase | 1,160 @ $21.61 | $25K | +16.3% of holding | +9.1% | +260.4% | 8,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Lang Scott A. | director | Purchase | 2,450 @ $20.41 | $50K | +52.7% of holding | +8.4% | +209.9% | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Ashe Gena L | director | Sale | 6,564 @ $21.07 | $138K | −32.9% of holding | −2.8% | +163.5% | 13,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Lang Scott A. | director | Purchase | 4,650 @ $21.28 | $99K | ownership Δ n/a | −5.6% | +84.6% | 4,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Gray Timothy | officer | Purchase | 50 @ $22.07 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | −6.1% | +48.9% | 77,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Heard William | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $37.97 | $133K | −0.2% of holding | −14.9% | −57.6% | 1,716,738 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Heard William | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $38.40 | $269K | −0.4% of holding | −12.4% | −60.2% | 1,720,238 | Form 4 · filed 28 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Heard William | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $38.93 | $253K | −0.4% of holding | −8.8% | −61.9% | 1,727,238 | Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Heard William | director | Sale | 8,251 @ $38.73 | $320K | −0.5% of holding | −12.6% | −63.4% | 1,733,738 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Heard William | director | Sale | 2,249 @ $41.67 | $94K | −0.1% of holding | +0.9% | −50.2% | 1,741,989 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Heard William | director | Sale | 7,900 @ $41.18 | $325K | −0.5% of holding | +1.6% | −52.8% | 1,744,238 | Form 4 · filed 62 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | OBRIEN MORGAN E | director | Sale | 13,609 @ $33.44 | $455K | −36.2% of holding | −6.5% | −16.6% | 23,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Fleischhauer Mark | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $34.19 | $120K | ownership Δ n/a | −11.7% | −17.2% | 3,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Martin Heather | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,465 | 34,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,561 | 68,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 84,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 27,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuhn Thomas R. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 48,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Heard William | director | Gift | 5,400 | 3,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | YAZDI MAHVASH | director | Award / grant | 1,598 | 21,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fleischhauer Mark | director | Award / grant | 1,598 | 14,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | ALTMAN JEFFREY A | director | Award / grant | 1,598 | 17,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | DANIELS LESLIE B | director | Award / grant | 1,598 | 56,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Heard William | director | Award / grant | 1,598 | 11,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,516 | 76,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Marquez Elena | officer | Withheld for tax | 231 | 18,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Marquez Elena | officer | Option exercise | 1,226 | 22,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Marquez Elena | officer | Option exercise | 1,226 | 2,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Withheld for tax | 48,470 | 76,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Withheld for tax | 39,621 | 125,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Option exercise | 74,530 | 164,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Option exercise | 63,788 | 90,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 50,876 | 117,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 25,511 | 169,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Option exercise | 18,368 | 42,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Withheld for tax | 10,996 | 27,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 137,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 24,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Withheld for tax | 4,661 | 38,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 11,750 | 58,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 6,715 | 143,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 66,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Option exercise | 18,368 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 6,715 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 25,511 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 50,876 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ashe Gena L | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 42,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Option exercise | 74,530 | 149,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lang Scott A. | director | Option exercise | 63,788 | 127,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Guttman-McCabe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 11,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.