Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.50 · now $10.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATEC has typically landed between $8.10 and $13.33 — a range of −22.9% to +26.9% from the issuance price $10.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATEC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.43 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.33–$11.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.1–$13.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −66.0% | −66.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −65.7% | −65.7% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −64.8% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-08-24 | +139.7% | +0.0% | +139.7% |
| 2016-08-30 | +136.8% | +0.0% | +136.8% |
| 2016-08-31 | +135.0% | +0.0% | +135.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.2%
n=20
Apr
40%
+2.9%
n=20
May
40%
−4.3%
n=20
Jun
65%
+6.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
+2.7%
n=20
Oct
55%
+5.1%
n=20
Nov
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Dec
65%
+4.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Miles Patrick | director | Purchase | 115,000 @ $8.81 | $1.0M | +2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,893,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 8,168 @ $9.65 | $79K | −1.3% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 630,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | MCGINNIS KAREN K | director | Sale | 6,050 @ $8.01 | $48K | −6.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Valentine Keith | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $7.00 | $245K | +17.7% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Valentine Keith | director | Purchase | 43,847 @ $7.54 | $331K | +28.6% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,271 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Valentine Keith | director | Purchase | 56,153 @ $7.49 | $421K | +57.7% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 260,535 @ $12.30 | $3.2M | −24.2% of holding | −11.3% | −27.1% | 815,704 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Koning John Todd | officer | Sale | 79,789 @ $12.36 | $986K | −11.7% of holding | −11.3% | −27.1% | 600,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 163,452 @ $12.52 | $2.0M | −24.5% of holding | −14.6% | −42.8% | 504,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 82,765 @ $12.45 | $1.0M | −4.6% of holding | −9.3% | −42.1% | 1,726,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 33,602 @ $12.22 | $411K | −1.8% of holding | −8.1% | −37.9% | 1,808,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 88,835 @ $12.49 | $1.1M | −13.7% of holding | −9.7% | −39.9% | 559,459 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 60,425 @ $13.79 | $833K | −14.7% of holding | −4.8% | −45.8% | 349,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 37,358 @ $14.71 | $550K | −3.1% of holding | −13.1% | −47.0% | 1,173,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Miles Patrick | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $21.01 | $2.1M | −1.9% of holding | −33.5% | −65.5% | 5,135,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Pelizzon David R | director | Sale | 250,000 @ $19.66 | $4.9M | −2.3% of holding | −12.4% | −66.3% | 10,395,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 19,900 @ $19.64 | $391K | −3.0% of holding | −12.4% | −66.3% | 641,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Demski David M | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $21.20 | $636K | −7.0% of holding | −18.3% | −68.5% | 399,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 32,584 @ $20.84 | $679K | −2.5% of holding | −17.2% | −68.9% | 1,256,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 21,106 @ $20.79 | $439K | −4.6% of holding | −17.2% | −68.9% | 439,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Pelizzon David R | director | Sale | 28,834 @ $21.03 | $606K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | −69.3% | 10,645,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Squadron Capital Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,834 @ $21.03 | $606K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | −69.3% | 10,645,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Squadron Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,834 @ $21.03 | $606K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | −69.3% | 10,645,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Pritzker Jennifer N. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,834 @ $21.03 | $606K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | −69.3% | 10,645,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Pritzker Jennifer N. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 221,166 @ $21.20 | $4.7M | −2.0% of holding | +7.0% | −67.9% | 10,673,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Squadron Capital Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 221,166 @ $21.20 | $4.7M | −2.0% of holding | +7.0% | −67.9% | 10,673,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Squadron Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 221,166 @ $21.20 | $4.7M | −2.0% of holding | +7.0% | −67.9% | 10,673,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Pelizzon David R | director | Sale | 221,166 @ $21.20 | $4.7M | −2.0% of holding | +7.0% | −67.9% | 10,673,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 988 @ $21.45 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | +7.0% | −67.9% | 460,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 12,965 @ $21.47 | $278K | −3.6% of holding | +1.6% | −69.6% | 345,442 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 10,875 @ $21.47 | $233K | −1.6% of holding | +1.6% | −69.6% | 661,332 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 9,924 @ $21.48 | $213K | −2.7% of holding | +1.6% | −69.6% | 358,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Miles Patrick | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $22.11 | $2.2M | −1.9% of holding | −4.7% | −76.5% | 5,264,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Squadron Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.62 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −2.9% | −75.2% | 10,895,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Pelizzon David R | director | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.62 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −2.9% | −75.2% | 10,895,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Pritzker Jennifer N. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.62 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −2.9% | −75.2% | 10,895,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Squadron Capital Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.62 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −2.9% | −75.2% | 10,895,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 70,000 @ $19.51 | $1.4M | −16.0% of holding | +0.3% | −74.6% | 368,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $19.80 | $495K | −3.6% of holding | +0.3% | −74.6% | 672,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Pelizzon David R | director | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.80 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −3.6% | −71.9% | 11,145,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Pritzker Jennifer N. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.80 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −3.6% | −71.9% | 11,145,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Squadron Capital LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.80 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −3.6% | −71.9% | 11,145,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Squadron Capital Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 250,000 @ $20.80 | $5.2M | −2.2% of holding | −3.6% | −71.9% | 11,145,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Rydin Jeffrey P | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $19.32 | $3.9M | −34.2% of holding | +10.0% | −71.8% | 385,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Miles Patrick | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $18.96 | $1.9M | −1.8% of holding | +10.0% | −71.8% | 5,364,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $19.95 | $2.0M | −7.2% of holding | +11.6% | −52.8% | 1,289,142 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-24 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 70,000 @ $16.18 | $1.1M | −13.2% of holding | +29.3% | −47.6% | 461,861 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Miles Patrick | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $13.96 | $1.4M | −1.8% of holding | +15.2% | −21.1% | 5,464,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 2,555 @ $15.34 | $39K | −0.5% of holding | −1.4% | −21.1% | 531,861 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-18 | Sponsel David | officer | Sale | 137,445 @ $15.09 | $2.1M | −20.5% of holding | −2.8% | −17.5% | 534,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Berkowitz Mortimer III | director | Sale | 62,500 @ $15.97 | $998K | −9.2% of holding | −15.1% | −24.5% | 618,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Miles Patrick | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $15.73 | $4.7M | −5.1% of holding | −15.6% | −24.7% | 5,564,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 6,323 @ $16.01 | $101K | −1.0% of holding | −7.3% | −25.4% | 658,707 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 9,302 @ $16.00 | $149K | −1.4% of holding | −5.4% | −23.3% | 665,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 10,876 @ $15.33 | $167K | −0.8% of holding | +5.6% | −18.9% | 1,389,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.00 | $750K | −3.4% of holding | +4.5% | −18.2% | 1,400,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 16,666 @ $15.00 | $250K | −2.4% of holding | +4.5% | −18.2% | 674,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 9,924 @ $14.86 | $147K | −2.2% of holding | +4.5% | −18.2% | 446,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-05 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Sale | 8,168 @ $14.96 | $122K | −1.8% of holding | +4.5% | −18.2% | 438,331 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Lish Scott | officer | Sale | 17,857 @ $14.00 | $250K | −2.5% of holding | +4.9% | −11.2% | 690,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Berkowitz Mortimer III | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 650,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MCGINNIS KAREN K | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 100,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Valentine Keith | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 264,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Demski David M | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 431,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 600,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pelizzon David R | director | Award / grant | 32,012 | 378,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,393 | 638,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 661,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 601,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 574,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 589,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Gift | 600 | 1,725,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Miles Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 219,749 | 5,778,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Koning John Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 68,910 | 680,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Miles Patrick | director | Award / grant | 152,853 | 152,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lish Scott | officer | Award / grant | 311,110 | 927,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lish Scott | officer | Award / grant | 127,378 | 1,055,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lish Scott | officer | Award / grant | 63,689 | 63,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Award / grant | 311,110 | 1,694,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Award / grant | 127,378 | 1,821,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Award / grant | 63,689 | 63,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Sponsel David | officer | Award / grant | 205,094 | 554,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Sponsel David | officer | Award / grant | 93,410 | 648,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Sponsel David | officer | Award / grant | 46,705 | 46,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Koning John Todd | officer | Award / grant | 55,197 | 55,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Koning John Todd | officer | Award / grant | 205,094 | 618,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Koning John Todd | officer | Award / grant | 110,394 | 729,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Miles Patrick | director | Award / grant | 611,673 | 5,643,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Miles Patrick | director | Award / grant | 305,707 | 5,949,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Award / grant | 205,094 | 550,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Award / grant | 84,918 | 635,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Award / grant | 42,459 | 42,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Miles Patrick | director | Award / grant | 48,913 | 5,998,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Hunsaker Craig E | officer | Award / grant | 20,992 | 1,842,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Marshall Tyson Eliot | officer | Award / grant | 12,840 | 648,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Sponsel David | officer | Award / grant | 20,380 | 668,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Koning John Todd | officer | Award / grant | 20,380 | 749,420 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.