ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.Communication Services · Telecommunications Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.27 · now $59.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASTS has typically landed between $39.34 and $101.29 — a range of −33.6% to +70.9% from the issuance price $59.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,703 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-11-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ASTS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$39.34worst · -33.6%$101.29best · +70.9%
  • now $59.27 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.58 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.35–$69.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $39.34–$101.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,703 windows spanning 2019-11-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-11-11−55.2%−55.2%+0.0%
2023-12-26−54.9%−54.9%+2.7%
2023-12-28−52.8%−54.9%+0.0%
3 best
2024-05-15+376.6%+0.0%+391.6%
2024-05-14+368.1%−4.8%+368.1%
2024-05-13+356.3%+0.0%+356.3%

1,703 overlapping windows · 2019-11-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
43%
−2.6%
n=7
Feb
71%
+8.6%
n=7
Mar
29%
−2.6%
n=7
Apr
43%
−10.9%
n=7
May
57%
+46.0%
n=7
Jun
57%
+23.5%
n=7
Jul
57%
+6.5%
n=7
Aug
57%
+15.5%
n=7
Sep
29%
−9.3%
n=7
Oct
50%
+7.5%
n=6
Nov
33%
−2.3%
n=6
Dec
57%
+5.7%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$133$372026-08-31: 3 insider purchases, $619K — Cisneros Adriana …2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $4.3M — Johnson Andrew Martin2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $3.9M — Yao Huiwen2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $451K — Johnson Andrew Martin2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Torres Julio A.2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $116.4M — Mikitani Hiroshi2026-04-14: 1 insider sale, $154.5M — Mikitani Hiroshi2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Yao Huiwen2025-12-24: 1 insider purchase, $50K — LARSON KEITH R2025-12-17: 1 insider purchase, $50K — LARSON KEITH R2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $773K — Gupta Shanti B.2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $49K — LARSON KEITH R2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $159.6M — AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/2025-12-05: 2 insider sales, $3.4M — Yao Huiwen, Bernal Maya2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $560K — Johnson Andrew Martin2025-11-20: 2 insider purchases, $38K — Cisneros Adriana …2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Yao Huiwen2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $769K — Yao Huiwen2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Johnson Andrew Martin2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $2.4M2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $38K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $560K2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $149K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $163.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $3.6M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $270.9M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $8.2M2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $619K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cisneros Adriana — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cisneros Adriana — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cisneros Adriana — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Andrew Martin — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yao Huiwen — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Johnson Andrew Martin — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Torres Julio A. — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Mikitani Hiroshi — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Mikitani Hiroshi — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Yao Huiwen — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LARSON KEITH R — Purchase on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector LARSON KEITH R — Purchase on 2025-12-17, filed same dayofficer Gupta Shanti B. — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LARSON KEITH R — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed same dayother AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Yao Huiwen — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bernal Maya — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Johnson Andrew Martin — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cisneros Adriana — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cisneros Adriana — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Yao Huiwen — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yao Huiwen — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Andrew Martin — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Cisneros AdrianadirectorPurchase8,768 @ $57.00$500K+1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open796,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Cisneros AdrianadirectorPurchase1,384 @ $57.79$80K+0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open787,585Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Cisneros AdrianadirectorPurchase670 @ $58.87$39K+0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open797,023Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11Johnson Andrew MartindirectorSale45,809 @ $93.81$4.3M−8.3% of holding−31.6%not yet — horizon still open503,619Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05Yao HuiwenofficerSale40,000 @ $96.37$3.9M−53.5% of holding−21.2%not yet — horizon still open34,750Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-20Johnson Andrew MartindirectorSale5,000 @ $90.25$451K−0.9% of holding−19.0%not yet — horizon still open565,805Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Torres Julio A.directorSale15,000 @ $76.34$1.1M−25.8% of holding+10.2%not yet — horizon still open43,239Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Mikitani HiroshitenPercentOwnerSale1,350,000 @ $86.22$116.4M−4.6% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open27,980,155Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Mikitani HiroshitenPercentOwnerSale1,690,000 @ $91.42$154.5M−5.4% of holding−22.4%not yet — horizon still open29,330,155Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23Yao HuiwenofficerSale40,000 @ $88.88$3.6M−89.4% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open4,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-24LARSON KEITH RdirectorPurchase625 @ $80.00$50K+45.0% of holding+41.9%+3.3%2,015Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-17LARSON KEITH RdirectorPurchase715 @ $70.02$50K+105.9% of holding+80.5%+6.5%1,390Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10Gupta Shanti B.officerSale10,000 @ $77.34$773K−2.5% of holding+23.1%−4.2%382,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10LARSON KEITH RdirectorPurchase675 @ $72.71$49Kownership Δ n/a+23.1%−4.2%675Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-09AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/otherSale2,288,621 @ $69.75$159.6M−91.5% of holding+32.2%+25.3%211,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Yao HuiwenofficerSale40,000 @ $73.52$2.9M−89.4% of holding+15.1%+11.9%4,750Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05Bernal MayaofficerSale6,000 @ $73.76$443K−4.7% of holding+15.1%+11.9%122,486Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26Johnson Andrew MartindirectorSale10,000 @ $56.00$560K−2.5% of holding+27.2%+78.1%387,485Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-20Cisneros AdrianadirectorPurchase375 @ $50.79$19K+0.0% of holding+65.3%+120.4%784,077Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Cisneros AdrianadirectorPurchase375 @ $50.79$19K+0.0% of holding+65.3%+120.4%783,702Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-16Yao HuiwenofficerSale40,000 @ $40.58$1.6M−89.4% of holding+135.6%+123.6%4,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03Yao HuiwenofficerSale16,000 @ $48.04$769K−26.3% of holding+42.1%+101.1%44,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26Johnson Andrew MartindirectorSale20,000 @ $52.48$1.0M−4.8% of holding−4.3%+62.6%397,485Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-16Gupta Shanti B.officerSale10,000 @ $41.84$418K−3.2% of holding+32.6%+48.2%305,667Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09Wisniewski ScottofficerSale50,000 @ $35.65$1.8M−8.4% of holding+21.6%+97.9%545,595Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09Gupta Shanti B.officerSale15,000 @ $36.08$541K−4.5% of holding+21.6%+97.9%315,667Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Wisniewski ScottofficerSale25,904 @ $126.64$3.3M−3.4% of holding+100.0%+107.6%745,973Form 4 · filed 365 days after the trade
2025-05-16Yao HuiwenofficerSale55,000 @ $26.82$1.5M−100.0% of holding+49.9%+116.6%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-17Wisniewski ScottofficerSale47,000 @ $94.75$4.5M−6.6% of holding−13.3%+27.2%666,681Form 4 · filed 366 days after the trade
2025-03-17Wisniewski ScottofficerSale35,871 @ $28.35$1.0M−5.2% of holding−13.3%+27.2%653,146Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Gupta Shanti B.officerSale24,425 @ $28.00$684K−6.2% of holding−13.3%+27.2%368,807Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Torres Julio A.directorSale20,000 @ $30.73$615K−27.5% of holding−19.2%+10.0%52,628Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10RUBIN RONALD LdirectorSale7,000 @ $32.46$227K−9.6% of holding−19.2%+10.0%65,628Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Yao HuiwenofficerExercise40,00074,750Form 4
2026-08-19Yao HuiwenofficerExercise40,000219,912Form 4
2026-08-17Gupta Shanti B.officerAward / grant75,000474,980Form 4
2026-08-17Bernal MayaofficerAward / grant20,000132,449Form 4
2026-08-17Turco Christopher EdwardofficerAward / grant200,000200,500Form 4
2026-08-17Wisniewski ScottofficerAward / grant75,000782,443Form 4
2026-08-17Johnson Andrew MartindirectorAward / grant75,000556,484Form 4
2026-08-17Avellan Abel AntoniodirectorAward / grant150,00078,692,209Form 4
2026-08-15Gupta Shanti B.officerWithheld for tax12,767399,980Form 4
2026-08-15Wisniewski ScottofficerWithheld for tax12,297707,443Form 4
2026-08-15Johnson Andrew MartindirectorWithheld for tax12,297481,484Form 4
2026-08-15Johnson Andrew MartindirectorWithheld for tax9,838493,781Form 4
2026-08-15Wisniewski ScottofficerWithheld for tax9,838719,740Form 4
2026-08-15Bernal MayaofficerWithheld for tax2,919112,449Form 4
2026-06-22Avellan Abel AntoniodirectorOther acquisition2,500,0002,500,000Form 4
2026-06-22Avellan Abel AntoniodirectorOther acquisition2,500,0002,500,000Form 4
2026-06-12Torres Julio A.directorAward / grant2,12445,363Form 4
2026-06-12Wibergh JohandirectorAward / grant2,1247,527Form 4
2026-06-12Cisneros AdrianadirectorAward / grant2,124786,201Form 4
2026-06-12RUBIN RONALD LdirectorAward / grant2,12473,363Form 4
2026-06-12SARNOFF RICHARDdirectorAward / grant2,12480,363Form 4
2026-06-06Wibergh JohandirectorWithheld for tax20828,793Form 4
2026-05-30Avellan Abel AntoniodirectorWithheld for tax32,75478,542,209Form 4
2026-05-30Gupta Shanti B.officerWithheld for tax21,275412,747Form 4
2026-05-30Johnson Andrew MartindirectorWithheld for tax16,377549,428Form 4
2026-05-30Wisniewski ScottofficerWithheld for tax16,377729,596Form 4
2026-05-30Bernal MayaofficerWithheld for tax2,621115,368Form 4
2026-05-22Yao HuiwenofficerAward / grant30,00074,750Form 4
2026-05-19Yao HuiwenofficerExercise40,00044,750Form 4
2026-05-19Yao HuiwenofficerExercise40,000259,912Form 4
2026-05-18Gupta Shanti B.officerWithheld for tax11,350434,022Form 4
2026-05-18Gupta Shanti B.officerAward / grant66,667445,372Form 4
2026-05-06Johnson Andrew MartindirectorWithheld for tax29,513570,805Form 4
2026-03-31Avellan Abel AntoniodirectorWithheld for tax22,49078,574,963Form 4
2026-03-31Wisniewski ScottofficerWithheld for tax15,241771,877Form 4
2026-03-31Johnson Andrew MartindirectorWithheld for tax12,167600,318Form 4
2026-03-31Gupta Shanti B.officerWithheld for tax8,357378,705Form 4
2026-03-24Gupta Shanti B.officerAward / grant54,687387,062Form 4
2026-03-24Wisniewski ScottofficerAward / grant123,437787,118Form 4
2026-03-24Johnson Andrew MartindirectorAward / grant100,000612,485Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.