ASTH · TickerCove

ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.70 · now $34.30 (2026-09-17, −9.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASTH has typically landed between $27.53 and $48.54 — a range of −27.0% to +28.8% from the issuance price $37.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,367 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-03-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$34.3 · 51% of range

$18.16 low$49.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.3%

typical move · IQR 24.1%

−27.0%worst (p90)+28.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ASTH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $34.3 (-9.0%)
typical $37.58 (-0.3%)
middle 50% $33.04–$42.13
90% range $27.53–$48.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,368 windows spanning 2009-03-11 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-06-17	−99.4%	−99.4%	+0.0%
2009-06-18	−99.4%	−99.4%	+0.0%
2009-06-19	−99.4%	−99.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-09	+750.0%	+0.0%	+750.0%
2009-04-08	+750.0%	+0.0%	+750.0%
2009-04-07	+750.0%	+0.0%	+750.0%

4,368 overlapping windows · 2009-03-11 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

47%

+4.1%

n=17

Feb

35%

+0.7%

n=17

Mar

59%

+2.4%

n=17

Apr

50%

+7.2%

n=18

May

44%

+1.9%

n=18

Jun

44%

+5.4%

n=18

Jul

39%

+9.4%

n=18

Aug

50%

+14.4%

n=18

Sep

44%

+4.5%

n=18

Oct

35%

−1.2%

n=17

Nov

47%

+2.7%

n=17

Dec

59%

+13.0%

n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Vong John	officer	Withheld for tax	96	22,330	Form 4
2026-09-05	Sim Brandon	officer	Withheld for tax	7,163	1,238,861	Form 4
2026-09-05	Basho Chandan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,790	157,820	Form 4
2026-08-31	Kitayama Mitchell W	director	Disposition	8,500	24,337	Form 4
2026-08-14	Schmidt David	director	Disposition	20,000	36,019	Form 4
2026-08-14	Schmidt David	director	Option exercise	20,000	56,019	Form 4
2026-08-14	Schmidt David	director	Option exercise	20,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-07	Sobotka Glenn	officer	Disposition	11,793	2,246	Form 4
2026-06-27	Sim Brandon	officer	Withheld for tax	1,093	1,245,292	Form 4
2026-06-10	Mazdyasni Matthew	director	Award / grant	4,525	39,288	Form 4
2026-06-10	Schmidt David	director	Award / grant	4,525	36,019	Form 4
2026-06-10	Dong Linda	director	Award / grant	4,525	97,133	Form 4
2026-06-10	Kitayama Mitchell W	director	Award / grant	4,991	32,837	Form 4
2026-06-10	Dai, Weili	director	Award / grant	4,525	18,188	Form 4
2026-06-10	Chiang John	director	Award / grant	4,525	35,373	Form 4
2026-05-16	Basho Chandan	officer	Withheld for tax	8,155	159,610	Form 4
2026-04-14	Basho Chandan	officer	Withheld for tax	3,870	167,765	Form 4
2026-04-06	Sim Kenneth T.	director	Award / grant	100,000	739,407	Form 4
2026-04-06	Lam Thomas S.	director	Award / grant	41,667	465,657	Form 4
2026-04-06	Sim Brandon	officer	Award / grant	201,056	1,246,385	Form 4
2026-04-02	Basho Chandan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,092	171,635	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kumar Dinesh M.	officer	Withheld for tax	57,980	177,655	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kumar Dinesh M.	officer	Award / grant	35,300	235,635	Form 4
2026-03-26	Sobotka Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	662	14,039	Form 4
2026-03-05	Lam Thomas S.	director	Withheld for tax	9,266	423,990	Form 4
2026-03-05	Kumar Dinesh M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,697	200,335	Form 4
2026-03-05	Basho Chandan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,240	173,727	Form 4
2026-02-02	Sim Brandon	officer	Option exercise	21,334	1,045,329	Form 4
2026-02-02	Sim Brandon	officer	Option exercise	21,334	0	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kumar Dinesh M.	officer	Withheld for tax	10,759	202,032	Form 4
2026-01-13	Schmidt David	director	Option exercise	20,000	35,763	Form 4
2026-01-13	Schmidt David	director	Withheld for tax	4,269	31,494	Form 4
2026-01-13	Schmidt David	director	Option exercise	20,000	0	Form 4
2026-01-01	Kumar Dinesh M.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,102	212,791	Form 4
2025-12-08	Lam Thomas S.	director	Withheld for tax	25,866	433,256	Form 4
2025-12-08	Lam Thomas S.	director	Option exercise	29,502	459,122	Form 4
2025-12-08	Lam Thomas S.	director	Option exercise	29,502	0	Form 4
2025-11-10	Sim Kenneth T.	director	Option exercise	29,502	639,407	Form 4
2025-11-10	Mazdyasni Matthew	director	Option exercise	20,000	34,763	Form 4
2025-11-10	Sim Kenneth T.	director	Option exercise	29,502	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i