ASPS · TickerCove

ASPSAltisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.Real Estate · Real Estate - Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.63 · now $5.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASPS has typically landed between $3.76 and $7.74 — a range of −33.3% to +37.5% from the issuance price $5.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,282 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-08-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$5.63 · 13% of range

$4.34 low$13.94 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.8%

typical move · IQR 23.1%

−33.3%worst (p90)+37.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ASPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $5.63 (+0.0%)
typical $5.47 (-2.8%)
middle 50% $4.82–$6.12
90% range $3.76–$7.74

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,282 windows spanning 2009-08-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2014-12-11	−66.8%	−66.8%	+3.3%
2014-12-12	−63.3%	−66.5%	+4.3%
2020-02-24	−62.4%	−62.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-24	+128.3%	+0.0%	+128.3%
2020-04-27	+126.4%	+0.0%	+126.4%
2020-05-06	+125.5%	+0.0%	+127.7%

4,282 overlapping windows · 2009-08-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

47%

−7.3%

n=17

Feb

47%

+1.1%

n=17

Mar

18%

−8.4%

n=17

Apr

59%

+6.1%

n=17

May

53%

+5.2%

n=17

Jun

71%

+8.3%

n=17

Jul

59%

+3.3%

n=17

Aug

47%

−0.5%

n=17

Sep

72%

+2.4%

n=18

Oct

41%

−2.4%

n=17

Nov

71%

+1.8%

n=17

Dec

35%

−6.8%

n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Winkler Matthew T.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $5.60	$11K	+5.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	41,989	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-18	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	43,900 @ $0.33	$14K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	4,288 @ $0.21	$922	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	45,000 @ $0.32	$15K	−50.6% of holding	+6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	43,900	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	5,000 @ $0.25	$1K	−53.8% of holding	+1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	4,288	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	12,400 @ $0.23	$3K	−57.2% of holding	+4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	9,288	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	1,100 @ $0.38	$415	−1.2% of holding	+4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	88,900	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	10,000 @ $0.41	$4K	−10.0% of holding	+1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	90,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	10,000 @ $0.28	$3K	−31.6% of holding	+1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	21,688	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03	Benefit Street Partners LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	48,991 @ $5.78	$283K	+2.8% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,803,045	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31	Benefit Street Partners LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,009 @ $5.43	$5K	+0.1% of holding	−3.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,754,054	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-30	Winkler Matthew T.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $5.04	$5K	+2.6% of holding	+3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	39,989	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	37,000 @ $0.25	$9K	−53.9% of holding	+3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	31,688	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	Winkler Matthew T.	director	Purchase	701 @ $5.10	$4K	+1.8% of holding	+3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	38,989	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Shepro William B	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $5.18	$21K	+85.4% of holding	+7.1%	not yet — horizon still open	8,686	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	38,452 @ $0.27	$11K	−35.9% of holding	+7.1%	not yet — horizon still open	68,688	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	35,619 @ $0.30	$11K	−25.0% of holding	−4.9%	not yet — horizon still open	107,140	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Shepro William B	director	Purchase	3,511 @ $6.02	$21K	+1.5% of holding	+20.3%	not yet — horizon still open	236,750	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	1,100 @ $0.22	$242	−0.8% of holding	−6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	142,759	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	33,350 @ $0.40	$13K	−25.0% of holding	−8.3%	not yet — horizon still open	100,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	4,682 @ $0.24	$1K	−3.2% of holding	−8.3%	not yet — horizon still open	143,859	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	18,322 @ $0.41	$7K	−12.1% of holding	−11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	133,350	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	3,032 @ $0.25	$751	−2.0% of holding	−15.2%	not yet — horizon still open	148,541	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Sale	99 @ $0.24	$24	−0.1% of holding	−6.0%	−33.5%	151,573	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Purchase	20,000 @ $0.48	$10K	+7.9% of holding	+7.1%	+80.8%	272,041	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-28	Shepro William B	director	Purchase	210,498 @ $0.48	$101K	+210.5% of holding	+34.0%	+75.5%	310,498	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-28	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Purchase	210,498 @ $0.48	$101K	+46.6% of holding	+34.0%	+75.5%	662,250	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19	Deer Park Road Management Company, LP	other	Sale	2,629 @ $0.76	$2K	−0.0% of holding	+10.9%	+70.9%	11,729,226	Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade
2025-02-19	Deer Park Road Management Company, LP	other	Sale	1,186 @ $0.76	$907	−0.0% of holding	+10.9%	+70.9%	3,363,265	Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

194 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Benefit Street Partners LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	19,073	1,753,045	Form 4
2026-06-09	Winkler Matthew T.	director	Other acquisition	19,073	38,288	Form 4
2026-05-21	Winkler Matthew T.	director	Award / grant	19,215	19,215	Form 4
2026-05-21	ALDRIDGE JOHN G JR	director	Award / grant	19,215	57,502	Form 4
2026-05-21	Deer Park Road Management Company, LP	other	Award / grant	19,215	11,966,106	Form 4
2026-05-21	MORETTINI JOSEPH L	director	Award / grant	19,215	57,185	Form 4
2026-05-21	Iseley Wesley G	director	Award / grant	19,215	38,289	Form 4
2026-05-21	Shepro William B	director	Award / grant	112,951	115,451	Form 4
2026-05-21	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Award / grant	23,717	131,907	Form 4
2026-05-21	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Award / grant	19,779	69,529	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	2,134	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	1,281	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	1,280	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Option exercise	1,145	50,172	Form 4
2026-03-20	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Withheld for tax	422	49,750	Form 4
2026-03-20	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Option exercise	520	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	4,695	4,695	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Withheld for tax	1,735	2,960	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Gift	2,960	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Shepro William B	director	Gift	2,960	233,240	Form 4
2026-03-20	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Option exercise	313	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Option exercise	312	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Option exercise	1,145	108,467	Form 4
2026-03-20	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Withheld for tax	277	108,190	Form 4
2026-03-20	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Option exercise	313	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Option exercise	520	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Option exercise	312	0	Form 4
2026-02-25	Shepro William B	director	Gift	6,300	2,500	Form 4
2026-02-25	Shepro William B	director	Withheld for tax	3,700	8,800	Form 4
2026-02-25	Shepro William B	director	Gift	6,300	230,280	Form 4
2026-02-25	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,821	55,911	Form 4
2026-02-25	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,394	107,322	Form 4
2026-02-25	Esterman Michelle D.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,394	107,322	Form 4
2026-02-25	RITTS GREGORY J.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,821	55,911	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Gift	3,704	0	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	5,877	5,877	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Withheld for tax	2,173	3,704	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Gift	3,704	223,980	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	3,256	3,256	Form 4
2026-02-20	Shepro William B	director	Option exercise	2,621	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i