ASPN · TickerCove

ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.93 · now $4.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASPN has typically landed between $3.31 and $7.01 — a range of −32.9% to +42.2% from the issuance price $4.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,062 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.93 · 38% of range

$2.57 low$8.82 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.5%

typical move · IQR 31.3%

−32.9%worst (p90)+42.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ASPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.93 (+0.0%)
typical $4.76 (-3.5%)
middle 50% $3.99–$5.53
90% range $3.31–$7.01

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,062 windows spanning 2014-06-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-15	−63.5%	−63.5%	+0.0%
2025-10-24	−63.2%	−65.5%	+0.0%
2025-10-16	−62.9%	−62.9%	+2.3%
3 best
2024-05-01	+96.6%	+0.0%	+96.6%
2024-04-25	+88.9%	−3.1%	+88.9%
2024-04-30	+88.4%	−2.8%	+89.5%

3,062 overlapping windows · 2014-06-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−2.0%

n=12

Feb

42%

+1.3%

n=12

Mar

42%

−5.7%

n=12

Apr

33%

−2.6%

n=12

May

83%

+17.6%

n=12

Jun

50%

+6.1%

n=12

Jul

54%

+2.3%

n=13

Aug

46%

+5.0%

n=13

Sep

54%

+4.6%

n=13

Oct

58%

+2.0%

n=12

Nov

42%

−6.5%

n=12

Dec

42%

+0.1%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-13	Young Donald R	director	Sale	56,845 @ $3.23	$184K	−10.3% of holding	−4.7%	+55.0%	494,011	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13	Daniel Santhosh P	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $7.54	$15K	−10.1% of holding	−13.7%	−61.7%	17,879	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12	Daniel Santhosh P	officer	Sale	4,410 @ $7.31	$32K	−18.2% of holding	−10.7%	−61.0%	19,879	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	Young Donald R	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $5.35	$107K	+3.8% of holding	+20.4%	−47.8%	550,856	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-23	NOGLOWS WILLIAM P	director	Option exercise	14,799	114,156	Form 4
2026-06-23	NOGLOWS WILLIAM P	director	Option exercise	14,799	0	Form 4
2026-05-13	NOGLOWS WILLIAM P	director	Award / grant	8,706	8,706	Form 4
2026-05-13	Robinson Cari	director	Award / grant	8,706	8,706	Form 4
2026-05-13	NOGLOWS WILLIAM P	director	Award / grant	10,370	99,357	Form 4
2026-05-13	SWEETNAM JAMES E	director	Award / grant	10,370	36,321	Form 4
2026-05-13	SWEETNAM JAMES E	director	Award / grant	8,706	8,706	Form 4
2026-05-13	Mitchell Steven R	director	Award / grant	10,370	156,898	Form 4
2026-05-13	Mitchell Steven R	director	Award / grant	8,706	8,706	Form 4
2026-05-13	Kool Kathleen	director	Award / grant	10,370	34,323	Form 4
2026-05-13	Kool Kathleen	director	Award / grant	8,706	8,706	Form 4
2026-05-13	Robinson Cari	director	Award / grant	10,370	22,616	Form 4
2026-03-08	Young Donald R	director	Withheld for tax	4,275	637,834	Form 4
2026-03-08	Landes Gregg	officer	Withheld for tax	1,924	102,931	Form 4
2026-03-08	Whitaker Corby C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,924	205,315	Form 4
2026-03-08	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Withheld for tax	590	77,732	Form 4
2026-03-05	Young Donald R	director	Withheld for tax	8,618	642,109	Form 4
2026-03-05	Whitaker Corby C	officer	Withheld for tax	3,907	207,239	Form 4
2026-03-05	Landes Gregg	officer	Withheld for tax	3,814	104,855	Form 4
2026-03-05	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Withheld for tax	2,368	78,322	Form 4
2026-03-05	Daniel Santhosh P	officer	Withheld for tax	986	15,330	Form 4
2026-03-04	Landes Gregg	officer	Award / grant	77,824	77,824	Form 4
2026-03-04	DEEGAN GLENN E.	officer	Award / grant	55,503	67,176	Form 4
2026-03-04	DEEGAN GLENN E.	officer	Award / grant	75,171	75,171	Form 4
2026-03-04	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Award / grant	55,298	80,690	Form 4
2026-03-04	Whitaker Corby C	officer	Award / grant	77,824	77,824	Form 4
2026-03-04	Landes Gregg	officer	Award / grant	57,462	108,669	Form 4
2026-03-04	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Award / grant	74,893	74,893	Form 4
2026-03-04	Whitaker Corby C	officer	Award / grant	57,462	211,146	Form 4
2026-03-04	Young Donald R	director	Award / grant	156,716	650,727	Form 4
2026-03-04	Young Donald R	director	Award / grant	212,249	212,249	Form 4
2025-10-01	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Award / grant	20,547	20,547	Form 4
2025-10-01	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Award / grant	10,273	14,881	Form 4
2025-10-01	Thoele Grant Douglas	officer	Award / grant	14,563	14,563	Form 4
2025-09-30	DEEGAN GLENN E.	officer	Award / grant	16,416	16,416	Form 4
2025-09-30	DEEGAN GLENN E.	officer	Award / grant	23,347	23,347	Form 4
2025-09-30	DEEGAN GLENN E.	officer	Award / grant	11,673	11,673	Form 4
2025-09-13	Daniel Santhosh P	officer	Withheld for tax	1,563	16,316	Form 4
2025-09-05	Pittman Stephanie	officer	Withheld for tax	1,581	42,257	Form 4
2025-05-23	Johnson Virginia	officer	Withheld for tax	6,129	44,450	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i