ASO · TickerCove

ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $50.42 · now $50.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASO has typically landed between $42.15 and $60.54 — a range of −16.4% to +20.1% from the issuance price $50.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,462 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($50.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$50.42 · 46% of range

$41.38 low$60.83 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 16.8%

−16.4%worst (p90)+20.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

1 open-market sale

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ASO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $50.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $50.42 (+0.0%)
typical $50.65 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $46.41–$54.9
90% range $42.15–$60.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,462 windows spanning 2020-10-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-10	−32.4%	−32.4%	+0.0%
2022-04-25	−30.5%	−30.5%	+0.0%
2025-03-07	−25.9%	−25.9%	+2.7%
3 best
2022-05-24	+40.2%	+0.0%	+40.2%
2021-03-24	+36.2%	+0.0%	+36.9%
2023-11-28	+35.6%	+0.0%	+35.6%

1,462 overlapping windows · 2020-10-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.1%

n=6

Feb

67%

+3.2%

n=6

Mar

50%

+3.7%

n=6

Apr

17%

−4.6%

n=6

May

33%

−1.8%

n=6

Jun

67%

+3.6%

n=6

Jul

83%

+6.7%

n=6

Aug

67%

+1.1%

n=6

Sep

33%

−1.4%

n=6

Oct

40%

−2.2%

n=5

Nov

83%

+7.0%

n=6

Dec

83%

+13.2%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Sale	33,810 @ $50.95	$1.7M	−47.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	36,861	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Sale	27,370 @ $52.82	$1.4M	−25.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	79,794	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Sale	9,123 @ $51.85	$473K	−11.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	70,671	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Sale	6,500 @ $52.80	$343K	−16.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	32,607	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Sale	3,932 @ $54.00	$212K	−9.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	39,107	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Sale	25,580 @ $53.95	$1.4M	−19.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	107,164	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-16	Tweedy Jeffrey C.	director	Sale	1,200 @ $48.00	$58K	−10.2% of holding	−13.4%	not yet — horizon still open	10,567	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-16	Tweedy Jeffrey C.	director	Sale	4,000 @ $60.00	$240K	−33.8% of holding	−18.2%	not yet — horizon still open	7,835	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Sale	3,500 @ $55.01	$193K	−8.2% of holding	+4.4%	−18.4%	39,107	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Sale	15,152 @ $55.24	$837K	−25.4% of holding	−0.1%	−21.3%	44,526	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Sale	1,919 @ $55.84	$107K	−4.3% of holding	−0.1%	−21.3%	42,607	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-26	Turner Christopher Lee	director	Sale	4,400 @ $44.48	$196K	−38.3% of holding	+18.2%	−1.2%	7,084	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Option exercise	25,580	132,744	Form 4
2026-09-14	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Option exercise	25,580	0	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Withheld for tax	638	24,909	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Withheld for tax	638	21,089	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Option exercise	1,621	0	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Option exercise	1,621	0	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Option exercise	1,621	21,727	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Option exercise	1,621	25,547	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Option exercise	1,621	21,727	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Option exercise	1,621	21,727	Form 4
2026-09-08	Ford Earl Carlton IV	officer	Option exercise	1,621	21,727	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Option exercise	1,621	25,547	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Option exercise	1,621	25,547	Form 4
2026-09-08	McCabe Matthew M.	officer	Option exercise	1,621	25,547	Form 4
2026-06-15	Dastugue Michael	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	MARLEY BRIAN T	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Tweedy Jeffrey C.	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	HICKS KEN C	director	Award / grant	5,801	5,801	Form 4
2026-06-15	Beck Wendy A.	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Nealon Thomas M	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	RAFF BERYL	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Palermo Theresa	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Picou Monique	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Hennessy Shannon	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-15	Johnson Clay M	director	Award / grant	3,384	3,384	Form 4
2026-06-09	Lawrence Steven Paul	director	Withheld for tax	4,994	192,724	Form 4
2026-06-09	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Withheld for tax	326	107,055	Form 4
2026-06-09	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Option exercise	827	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Lawrence Steven Paul	director	Option exercise	9,917	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	Lawrence Steven Paul	director	Option exercise	9,917	197,718	Form 4
2026-06-09	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Option exercise	827	107,381	Form 4
2026-06-09	Johnson Samuel J	officer	Option exercise	827	107,381	Form 4
2026-06-09	Lawrence Steven Paul	director	Option exercise	9,917	197,718	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hennessy Shannon	director	Option exercise	1,825	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	HICKS KEN C	director	Option exercise	6,823	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Tweedy Jeffrey C.	director	Option exercise	3,932	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	RAFF BERYL	director	Option exercise	3,932	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Picou Monique	director	Option exercise	3,932	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Palermo Theresa	director	Option exercise	3,932	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Nealon Thomas M	director	Option exercise	3,932	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Eric Burlison	House	sale	2023-03-01	2023-02-06	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i