Issued 2026-09-16 at $247.69 · now $247.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASND has typically landed between $209.83 and $297.60 — a range of −15.3% to +20.2% from the issuance price $247.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,893 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-01-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($247.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ASND has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $247.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $247.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $251.06 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $236.13–$265.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $209.83–$297.6
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-06 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-29 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-07 | −36.6% | −36.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-02-11 | +89.6% | +0.0% | +89.6% |
| 2019-02-07 | +84.8% | +0.0% | +85.0% |
| 2019-02-08 | +84.8% | +0.0% | +84.8% |
2,893 overlapping windows · 2015-01-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Bodenhoff Mads | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $270.19 | $811K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | HOLTUG LARS | director | Sale | 236 @ $264.13 | $62K | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $245.85 | $270K | +122.2% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 900 @ $246.91 | $222K | +45.0% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | SMITH SCOTT THOMAS | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $219.00 | $22K | +2.3% of holding | +28.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | SMITH SCOTT THOMAS | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $223.32 | $56K | +6.2% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,267 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 200 @ $223.76 | $45K | +50.0% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 200 @ $222.30 | $44K | +33.3% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 800 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 100 @ $223.50 | $22K | +12.5% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 900 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 200 @ $239.37 | $48K | +100.0% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 200 @ $236.24 | $47K | ownership Δ n/a | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | JENSEN FLEMMING STEEN | officer | Sale | 19,460 @ $238.49 | $4.6M | −100.0% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Bodenhoff Mads | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Bodenhoff Mads | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 687 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Palmer | House | sale | 2018-11-07 | 2018-10-05 | $1–15K |
| Gary Palmer | House | purchase | 2018-09-29 | 2018-08-06 | $1–15K |
| Gary Palmer | House | purchase | 2018-09-29 | 2018-07-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.