Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.48 · now $25.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASMB has typically landed between $19.65 and $33.87 — a range of −22.9% to +32.9% from the issuance price $25.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,935 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-12-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ASMB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $25.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.21 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.3–$28.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.65–$33.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2012-06-22 | −69.3% | −71.0% | +0.0% |
| 2014-02-10 | −68.8% | −69.5% | +0.0% |
| 2012-06-20 | −68.6% | −70.1% | +3.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-10-10 | +101.7% | +0.0% | +101.7% |
| 2016-09-30 | +95.8% | +0.0% | +95.8% |
| 2019-10-09 | +94.0% | +0.0% | +103.5% |
3,935 overlapping windows · 2010-12-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Sale | 29 @ $23.25 | $674 | −0.2% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Sale | 312 @ $26.65 | $8K | −2.7% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | White Nicole S | officer | Sale | 188 @ $26.65 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Sale | 16 @ $27.49 | $440 | −0.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | White Nicole S | officer | Sale | 9 @ $27.49 | $247 | −0.0% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,147,960 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −5.5% | +2.7% | 1,147,960 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,295,920 | — | +103.9% of holding | −5.5% | +2.7% | 4,505,391 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,147,960 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −5.5% | +2.7% | 1,147,960 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,295,920 | — | +103.9% of holding | −5.5% | +2.7% | 4,505,391 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,147,960 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −5.5% | +2.7% | 1,147,960 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,147,960 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −5.5% | +2.7% | 1,147,960 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | McHutchison John G | director | Sale | 757 @ $9.85 | $7K | −4.0% of holding | +20.0% | +148.0% | 18,347 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Okazaki Jason A | director | Sale | 355 @ $9.85 | $3K | −2.3% of holding | +20.0% | +148.0% | 14,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | White Nicole S | officer | Sale | 197 @ $9.85 | $2K | −1.7% of holding | +20.0% | +148.0% | 11,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Sale | 180 @ $9.85 | $2K | −3.8% of holding | +20.0% | +148.0% | 4,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Houghton Michael | director | Purchase | 3,202 @ $15.61 | $50K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.9% | +6.2% | 3,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 940,499 @ $21.37 | $20.1M | +74.1% of holding | −10.3% | +4.9% | 2,209,471 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | ALTIG ANTHONY E | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | McHutchison John G | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Houghton Michael | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson-Pratt Lisa | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mahony Susan | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Consylman Gina | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 471,698 | 4,977,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | White Nicole S | officer | Award / grant | 14,000 | 48,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Delaney William E IV | officer | Award / grant | 26,000 | 45,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Okazaki Jason A | director | Award / grant | 94,250 | 111,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gaggar Anuj | officer | Award / grant | 26,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | White Nicole S | officer | Award / grant | 26,000 | 37,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 3,500 | 14,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 6,500 | 11,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Delaney William E IV | officer | Award / grant | 14,000 | 60,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gaggar Anuj | officer | Award / grant | 14,000 | 42,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Okazaki Jason A | director | Award / grant | 50,750 | 163,354 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 600 | 600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 300 | 5,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | McHutchison John G | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Johnson-Pratt Lisa | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Mahony Susan | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Houghton Michael | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | ALTIG ANTHONY E | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | RINGO WILLIAM R | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Consylman Gina | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 1,655 | 4,797 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | Delaney William E IV | officer | Award / grant | 25,500 | 25,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | Bjorkquist Jeanette M | officer | Award / grant | 1,900 | 1,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | Gaggar Anuj | officer | Award / grant | 24,200 | 24,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | White Nicole S | officer | Award / grant | 20,400 | 20,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-29 | Okazaki Jason A | director | Award / grant | 71,100 | 71,100 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.