ASH · TickerCove

ASHAshland Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.48 · now $70.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASH has typically landed between $61.58 and $79.64 — a range of −12.6% to +13.0% from the issuance price $70.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$70.48 · 82% of range

$46.47 low$75.64 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.4%

typical move · IQR 10.8%

−12.6%worst (p90)+13.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ASH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $70.48 (+0.0%)
typical $70.2 (-0.4%)
middle 50% $66.4–$74
90% range $61.58–$79.64

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-11-04	−63.7%	−65.8%	+0.0%
2008-10-30	−63.1%	−63.1%	+7.9%
2008-10-31	−60.5%	−64.1%	+5.0%
3 best
2009-03-18	+140.4%	−5.9%	+140.4%
2009-03-05	+139.6%	+0.0%	+139.6%
2009-03-20	+136.3%	+0.0%	+155.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

−0.1%

n=18

Feb

53%

−0.5%

n=19

Mar

63%

+4.4%

n=19

Apr

53%

+9.2%

n=19

May

74%

+3.7%

n=19

Jun

53%

−0.4%

n=19

Jul

53%

+1.3%

n=19

Aug

53%

−0.2%

n=19

Sep

26%

−3.0%

n=19

Oct

56%

−0.3%

n=18

Nov

72%

−0.0%

n=18

Dec

61%

+2.4%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-01-31	NOVO GUILLERMO	director	Purchase	31,294 @ $64.24	$2.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−6.1%	−24.4%	31,294	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Assis Alessandra Faccin	officer	Purchase	3,150 @ $64.00	$202K	ownership Δ n/a	−6.1%	−24.4%	3,150	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-05	BONI ERIC N	officer	Sale	451 @ $78.07	$35K	−3.1% of holding	−4.2%	−29.7%	14,182	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	MUSA OSAMA M	officer	Award / grant	14,230	14,230	Form 4
2026-08-11	LAMPKIN ROBIN E.	officer	Option exercise	1,806	6,825	Form 4
2026-08-11	LAMPKIN ROBIN E.	officer	Withheld for tax	526	6,299	Form 4
2026-08-11	LAMPKIN ROBIN E.	officer	Option exercise	1,806	1,806	Form 4
2026-07-29	MUSA OSAMA M	officer	Option exercise	1,267	30,806	Form 4
2026-07-29	MUSA OSAMA M	officer	Option exercise	9,793	0	Form 4
2026-07-27	Assis Alessandra Faccin	officer	Option exercise	3,215	9,099	Form 4
2026-07-27	SPIZZO ALLEN A	director	Award / grant	978	978	Form 4
2026-07-27	Thomas Peter T	director	Award / grant	978	978	Form 4
2026-07-27	Assis Alessandra Faccin	officer	Withheld for tax	884	8,215	Form 4
2026-07-27	Assis Alessandra Faccin	officer	Option exercise	3,215	9,646	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bishop Steven D	director	Award / grant	379	5,720	Form 4
2026-06-30	Chattopadhyay Sanat	director	Award / grant	218	2,182	Form 4
2026-05-15	LOY BERTRAND	director	Award / grant	1,741	1,741	Form 4
2026-05-08	MINICUCCI JAMES P.	officer	Option exercise	4,310	8,567	Form 4
2026-05-08	MINICUCCI JAMES P.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,346	7,221	Form 4
2026-05-08	MINICUCCI JAMES P.	officer	Option exercise	4,310	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	Bishop Steven D	director	Award / grant	450	5,307	Form 4
2026-03-31	Chattopadhyay Sanat	director	Award / grant	258	1,952	Form 4
2026-02-06	NOVO GUILLERMO	director	Award / grant	32,096	32,096	Form 4
2026-01-21	Kulkarni Ashish K	director	Option exercise	2,113	2,113	Form 4
2026-01-21	Kulkarni Ashish K	director	Option exercise	2,113	0	Form 4
2026-01-20	Kulkarni Ashish K	director	Award / grant	2,449	5,523	Form 4
2026-01-20	Chattopadhyay Sanat	director	Award / grant	2,449	6,711	Form 4
2026-01-20	Peribere Jerome A	director	Award / grant	2,449	15,155	Form 4
2026-01-20	Tozier Scott	director	Award / grant	2,449	5,658	Form 4
2026-01-20	Harrison Suzan F.	director	Award / grant	2,449	8,396	Form 4
2026-01-20	MAIN SUE	director	Award / grant	2,449	16,073	Form 4
2026-01-20	Bishop Steven D	director	Award / grant	2,449	8,396	Form 4
2025-12-31	Bishop Steven D	director	Award / grant	426	4,818	Form 4
2025-12-31	Chattopadhyay Sanat	director	Award / grant	245	1,679	Form 4
2025-11-19	RICHARDSON SAMUEL	officer	Award / grant	1,738	1,738	Form 4
2025-11-19	RICHARDSON SAMUEL	officer	Award / grant	3,912	3,912	Form 4
2025-11-19	WHITAKER WILLIAM	officer	Award / grant	10,280	10,280	Form 4
2025-11-19	WHITAKER WILLIAM	officer	Award / grant	23,131	23,131	Form 4
2025-11-19	Caceres Dago	officer	Award / grant	4,250	4,250	Form 4
2025-11-19	Caceres Dago	officer	Award / grant	9,564	9,564	Form 4
2025-11-19	LAMPKIN ROBIN E.	officer	Award / grant	3,965	3,965	Form 4
2025-11-19	LAMPKIN ROBIN E.	officer	Award / grant	8,922	8,922	Form 4
2025-11-19	MINICUCCI JAMES P.	officer	Award / grant	5,049	5,049	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Thad Cochran	Senate	sale	2016-02-03	2015-12-18	$15–50K
Thad Cochran	Senate	purchase	2014-11-04	2014-10-02	$15–50K
Thad Cochran	Senate	purchase	2014-09-09	2014-08-11	$15–50K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i