Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.65 · now $9.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ASAN has typically landed between $6.64 and $12.90 — a range of −31.2% to +33.7% from the issuance price $9.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,476 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ASAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.36 (-3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.18–$10.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.64–$12.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,476 windows spanning 2020-09-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-12 | −54.2% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-11 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +7.0% |
| 2021-11-16 | −50.3% | −52.5% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-14 | +93.0% | −3.4% | +93.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | +89.4% | −0.9% | +98.0% |
| 2021-06-03 | +82.5% | +0.0% | +82.5% |
1,476 overlapping windows · 2020-09-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−4.3%
n=6
Feb
33%
−5.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−9.5%
n=6
Apr
33%
−5.7%
n=6
May
67%
+9.9%
n=6
Jun
33%
+2.6%
n=6
Jul
100%
+11.0%
n=6
Aug
33%
+2.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
+1.1%
n=6
Oct
67%
+1.5%
n=6
Nov
50%
+4.1%
n=6
Dec
50%
−2.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Rogers Daniel Mark | director | Sale | 1,655 @ $10.00 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,925,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Rogers Daniel Mark | director | Sale | 13,790 @ $6.89 | $95K | −0.7% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,891,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 5,242 @ $6.68 | $35K | −2.9% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,598 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Megji Aziz | officer | Sale | 13,239 @ $6.73 | $89K | −1.7% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 765,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 8,337 @ $6.74 | $56K | −4.4% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,840 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Rogers Daniel Mark | director | Sale | 26,975 @ $6.66 | $180K | −1.4% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,905,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Megji Aziz | officer | Sale | 25,607 @ $6.66 | $171K | −3.2% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 784,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Sosa Veronica | officer | Sale | 11,378 @ $6.66 | $76K | −15.4% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 7,647 @ $6.66 | $51K | −3.9% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Megji Aziz | officer | Sale | 6,089 @ $6.65 | $40K | −0.8% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 778,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Megji Aziz | officer | Sale | 30,650 @ $6.10 | $187K | −12.0% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,549 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 5,015 @ $6.42 | $32K | −4.8% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $6.39 | $10K | −1.4% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 18,717 @ $6.62 | $124K | −2.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 915,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 34,151 @ $6.65 | $227K | −3.5% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 933,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Sosa Veronica | officer | Sale | 6,479 @ $6.65 | $43K | −8.1% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,722 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 3,575 @ $6.65 | $24K | −3.3% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Sale | 7,304 @ $7.42 | $54K | −6.3% of holding | −22.7% | −0.9% | 108,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Sale | 45,463 @ $13.55 | $616K | −9.6% of holding | −15.5% | −54.9% | 428,629 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-23 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 24,888 @ $13.54 | $337K | −2.5% of holding | −15.5% | −54.9% | 968,149 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 83,656 @ $14.31 | $1.2M | −7.8% of holding | −23.2% | −63.4% | 993,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Raimondi Anne | officer | Sale | 62,165 @ $14.31 | $890K | −8.1% of holding | −23.2% | −63.4% | 702,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Sale | 55,234 @ $14.31 | $790K | −10.4% of holding | −23.2% | −63.4% | 474,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Raimondi Anne | officer | Sale | 66,246 @ $14.46 | $958K | −8.0% of holding | −24.2% | −62.4% | 764,178 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Raimondi Anne | officer | Sale | 9,847 @ $14.51 | $143K | −1.2% of holding | −24.2% | −62.4% | 830,424 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Raimondi Anne | officer | Sale | 22,198 @ $14.52 | $322K | −2.6% of holding | −27.6% | −63.1% | 840,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 850,233 @ $15.12 | $12.9M | −80.2% of holding | −16.1% | −59.2% | 210,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $15.24 | $1.5M | −15.9% of holding | −16.1% | −59.2% | 529,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 8,215 @ $14.95 | $123K | −0.8% of holding | −10.3% | −54.8% | 1,060,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 13,701 @ $14.95 | $205K | −1.3% of holding | −15.1% | −62.3% | 1,068,846 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 458,878 @ $14.98 | $6.9M | −29.8% of holding | −17.2% | −64.7% | 1,082,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 14,500 @ $15.07 | $219K | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | −66.7% | 1,541,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 1,199,560 @ $15.23 | $18.3M | −43.5% of holding | −12.3% | −64.6% | 1,555,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 454,913 @ $15.08 | $6.9M | −14.2% of holding | −13.2% | −65.5% | 2,755,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 63,374 @ $14.38 | $912K | −5.6% of holding | +0.1% | −57.0% | 1,076,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Sale | 10,570 @ $14.41 | $152K | −2.0% of holding | +0.1% | −57.0% | 529,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 194,976 @ $14.17 | $2.8M | −14.6% of holding | +1.3% | −55.3% | 1,140,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Raimondi Anne | officer | Sale | 28,026 @ $14.17 | $397K | −3.1% of holding | +1.3% | −55.3% | 862,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Sale | 20,049 @ $14.17 | $284K | −3.6% of holding | +1.3% | −55.3% | 539,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 122,470 @ $13.52 | $1.7M | +0.2% of holding | +0.2% | −60.0% | 57,898,436 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $13.62 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | −0.5% | −55.6% | 57,775,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 221,966 @ $13.85 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | +0.6% | −53.6% | 57,550,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $14.12 | $3.2M | +0.4% of holding | −5.2% | −53.4% | 57,329,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 224,235 @ $13.98 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | −4.1% | −53.6% | 57,104,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $13.77 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | −5.2% | −51.5% | 56,879,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 224,861 @ $13.66 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | −7.0% | −52.1% | 56,654,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $12.93 | $2.9M | +0.4% of holding | +1.2% | −45.2% | 56,429,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $13.76 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | +0.7% | −48.8% | 56,204,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 223,905 @ $14.10 | $3.2M | +0.4% of holding | −5.2% | −47.9% | 55,979,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $14.48 | $3.3M | +0.4% of holding | −10.5% | −50.0% | 55,755,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $14.38 | $3.2M | +0.4% of holding | −2.9% | −45.5% | 55,530,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $14.04 | $3.2M | +0.4% of holding | −3.6% | −41.8% | 55,305,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $15.32 | $3.4M | +0.4% of holding | −7.4% | −42.2% | 55,080,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $15.24 | $3.4M | +0.4% of holding | −7.6% | −37.1% | 54,855,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 517,635 @ $15.04 | $7.8M | −13.9% of holding | −7.9% | −35.6% | 3,210,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 223,894 @ $14.98 | $3.4M | −5.7% of holding | −5.9% | −32.1% | 3,728,033 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $14.91 | $3.4M | +0.4% of holding | −4.9% | −34.7% | 54,630,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 115,936 @ $15.03 | $1.7M | −2.9% of holding | −4.9% | −34.7% | 3,951,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Sale | 729,228 @ $15.08 | $11.0M | −15.2% of holding | −9.6% | −35.4% | 4,067,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Moskovitz Dustin A. | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $15.04 | $3.4M | +0.4% of holding | −9.6% | −35.4% | 54,405,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Rogers Daniel Mark | director | Award / grant | 35,496 | 1,927,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 1,827 | 92,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Gift | 2,700,000 | 532,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rogers Daniel Mark | director | Award / grant | 654,665 | 1,932,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Award / grant | 22,378 | 3,232,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Boroditsky Marc | director | Award / grant | 22,378 | 45,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | CAREY SYDNEY | director | Award / grant | 22,378 | 146,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Lindsay Andrew | director | Award / grant | 22,378 | 72,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 22,378 | 90,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Megji Aziz | officer | Award / grant | 585,775 | 810,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Award / grant | 98,200 | 197,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | D'Angelo Adam | director | Award / grant | 1,186 | 58,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Cohler Matt | director | Award / grant | 1,335 | 341,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 2,056 | 67,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | director | Award / grant | 2,323 | 144,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Gift | 6,350,000 | 3,210,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 6,350,000 | 826,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 6,350,000 | 9,560,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Colendich Katie Marie | officer | Award / grant | 53,436 | 115,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 1,268 | 65,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cohler Matt | director | Award / grant | 823 | 339,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | D'Angelo Adam | director | Award / grant | 731 | 57,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | director | Award / grant | 1,432 | 142,223 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Other acquisition | 125,000 | 722,458 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Other acquisition | 125,000 | 7,176,532 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Gift | 665,000 | 3,210,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 665,000 | 7,051,532 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 665,000 | 3,875,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,210,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Rosenstein Justin | director | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 7,716,532 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 629,326 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | LACEY ELEANOR B | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | CAREY SYDNEY | director | Award / grant | 996 | 123,921 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 925 | 64,520 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | D'Angelo Adam | director | Award / grant | 533 | 56,838 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NORRINGTON LORRIE M | director | Award / grant | 1,045 | 140,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Cohler Matt | director | Award / grant | 600 | 55,018 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Anderson-Copperman Krista | director | Award / grant | 885 | 63,595 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | CAREY SYDNEY | director | Award / grant | 953 | 122,925 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | D'Angelo Adam | director | Award / grant | 510 | 56,305 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.