ARXSArxis, Inc. Class A Common StockIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.51 · now $49.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARXS has typically landed between $43.18 and $69.89 — a range of −12.8% to +41.2% from the issuance price $49.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

85 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARXS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$43.18worst · -12.8%$69.89best · +41.2%
  • now $49.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $55.23 (+11.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $48.87–$61.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $43.18–$69.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 85 windows spanning 2026-04-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-08-13−14.9%−14.9%+0.0%
2026-08-17−14.0%−14.7%+0.0%
2026-08-14−13.2%−14.3%+0.6%
3 best
2026-07-16+42.5%+0.0%+49.2%
2026-07-09+41.0%−5.5%+41.0%
2026-07-07+40.3%−5.4%+40.3%

85 overlapping windows · 2026-04-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$60$342026-04-17: 7 insider purchases, $5.6M — Roth Jason Aaron, Perhamus Kevin Scott, Badakhsh Azad Sid, Oetgen Stephen Duane …2026-04: 7 open-market purchases, $5.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Roth Jason Aaron — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Perhamus Kevin Scott — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Badakhsh Azad Sid — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Oetgen Stephen Duane — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sealfon Ross Bradley — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ALLEN PATRICK E — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Jankowski Ryan Anthony — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-17Roth Jason AaronofficerPurchase60,000 @ $28.00$1.7M+17.9% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open395,515Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17Perhamus Kevin ScottdirectorPurchase53,600 @ $28.00$1.5M+1.5% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open3,573,133Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17Badakhsh Azad SidofficerPurchase36,000 @ $28.00$1.0M+9.8% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open403,864Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17Oetgen Stephen DuanedirectorPurchase25,000 @ $28.00$700K+466.7% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open30,357Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17Sealfon Ross BradleyofficerPurchase12,500 @ $28.00$350K+1.1% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open1,102,807Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17ALLEN PATRICK EdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $28.00$280K+186.7% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open15,357Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17Jankowski Ryan AnthonyofficerPurchase4,464 @ $28.00$125K+9.5% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open51,331Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

25 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Roth Jason AaronofficerAward / grant34,098429,613Form 4
2026-06-29Jankowski Ryan AnthonyofficerAward / grant8,51759,848Form 4
2026-04-17Oetgen Stephen DuanedirectorAward / grant5,3575,357Form 4
2026-04-17ALLEN PATRICK EdirectorAward / grant5,3575,357Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant11Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Roth Jason AaronofficerAward / grant335,515335,515Form 4
2026-04-16Badakhsh Azad SidofficerAward / grant367,864367,864Form 4
2026-04-16Allen Jennifer H.officerAward / grant53,69553,695Form 4
2026-04-16Jankowski Ryan AnthonyofficerAward / grant46,86746,867Form 4
2026-04-16Sealfon Ross BradleyofficerAward / grant1,090,3071,090,307Form 4
2026-04-16Badakhsh Azad SidofficerAward / grant367,864367,864Form 4
2026-04-16Sealfon Ross BradleyofficerAward / grant1,090,3071,090,307Form 4
2026-04-16Jankowski Ryan AnthonyofficerAward / grant46,86746,867Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Allen Jennifer H.officerAward / grant53,69553,695Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Perhamus Kevin ScottdirectorAward / grant3,519,5333,519,533Form 4
2026-04-16Arcline Double Eagle Master Fund-A LPdirectorAward / grant340,676,786340,676,786Form 4
2026-04-16Roth Jason AaronofficerAward / grant335,515335,515Form 4
2026-04-16Perhamus Kevin ScottdirectorAward / grant3,519,5333,519,533Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.