Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.79 · now $65.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARWR has typically landed between $50.57 and $86.90 — a range of −23.1% to +32.1% from the issuance price $65.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $65.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.22 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $58.06–$72.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.57–$86.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-11-08 | −77.9% | −78.4% | +0.0% |
| 2016-10-31 | −77.2% | −77.2% | +5.3% |
| 2016-11-07 | −76.7% | −77.5% | +4.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-03-12 | +148.1% | +0.0% | +148.1% |
| 2010-03-19 | +142.6% | +0.0% | +148.1% |
| 2010-03-18 | +138.9% | +0.0% | +148.1% |
5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Mar
50%
+5.5%
n=20
Apr
50%
+3.8%
n=20
May
45%
+2.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.7%
n=20
Jul
55%
+5.3%
n=20
Aug
45%
+2.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
+4.6%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Nov
55%
+8.8%
n=20
Dec
35%
−2.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | PERRY MICHAEL S | director | Sale | 11,600 @ $87.30 | $1.0M | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $86.96 | $174K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Lu Hongbo | director | Sale | 2,970 @ $76.88 | $228K | −5.4% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $75.00 | $750K | −4.2% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Apel Daniel Joseph | officer | Sale | 8,730 @ $71.92 | $628K | −5.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Apel Daniel Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,208 @ $70.11 | $225K | −1.8% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Apel Daniel Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $70.45 | $82K | −0.7% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $64.19 | $642K | −4.0% of holding | −0.9% | +21.9% | 236,958 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 14,792 @ $63.01 | $932K | −7.3% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 186,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 13,451 @ $62.96 | $847K | −2.6% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 500,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 12,711 @ $63.95 | $813K | −6.8% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 173,904 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 11,842 @ $63.84 | $756K | −2.4% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 488,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 6,164 @ $62.23 | $384K | −1.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 513,869 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 6,090 @ $62.28 | $379K | −2.9% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 201,407 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 5,873 @ $62.91 | $369K | −1.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 477,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 4,625 @ $61.24 | $283K | −2.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 207,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 4,368 @ $61.20 | $267K | −0.8% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 520,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $64.44 | $174K | −0.6% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 485,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,336 @ $64.04 | $150K | −0.5% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 474,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $64.49 | $77K | −0.7% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 172,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 900 @ $66.01 | $59K | −0.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 484,976 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 900 @ $62.25 | $56K | −0.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 483,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 600 @ $61.12 | $37K | −0.1% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 484,063 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 437 @ $65.97 | $29K | −0.3% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 172,267 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 313 @ $68.00 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 484,663 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Hamilton James C | officer | Sale | 309 @ $68.00 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 171,958 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Sale | 46 @ $68.00 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +6.8% | +25.3% | 474,908 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 7,416 @ $65.88 | $489K | −0.2% of holding | +5.5% | +18.3% | 3,798,510 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 5,771 @ $66.39 | $383K | −0.2% of holding | +5.5% | +18.3% | 3,792,739 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 35,181 @ $69.33 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | −1.6% | +6.5% | 3,822,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 16,545 @ $68.69 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | −1.6% | +6.5% | 3,805,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Ferrari Mauro | director | Sale | 7,530 @ $70.00 | $527K | −9.8% of holding | −7.3% | +7.4% | 69,053 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 10,012 @ $68.33 | $684K | −0.3% of holding | −3.5% | +7.1% | 3,808,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 2,574 @ $68.85 | $177K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | +7.1% | 3,805,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 8,147 @ $68.01 | $554K | −0.2% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 3,819,831 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Sale | 6,083 @ $68.04 | $414K | −15.0% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 34,427 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Waddill William D. | director | Sale | 5,451 @ $68.01 | $371K | −8.7% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 57,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Vakiener Victoria | director | Sale | 5,281 @ $67.97 | $359K | −12.3% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 37,683 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 3,979 @ $66.67 | $265K | −0.1% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 3,827,978 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Sale | 3,090 @ $66.70 | $206K | −7.1% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 40,510 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Vakiener Victoria | director | Sale | 2,799 @ $66.63 | $186K | −6.1% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 42,964 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Waddill William D. | director | Sale | 2,416 @ $66.66 | $161K | −3.7% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 62,514 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Vakiener Victoria | director | Sale | 1,960 @ $68.39 | $134K | −5.2% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 35,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 1,319 @ $68.48 | $90K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 3,818,512 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Sale | 827 @ $68.48 | $57K | −2.4% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 33,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Waddill William D. | director | Sale | 500 @ $68.53 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | +0.9% | +8.8% | 56,563 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 46,287 @ $63.55 | $2.9M | −1.2% of holding | −0.5% | +14.8% | 3,870,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 35,750 @ $64.51 | $2.3M | −0.9% of holding | −0.5% | +14.8% | 3,834,920 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 1,981 @ $66.30 | $131K | −0.1% of holding | −0.5% | +14.8% | 3,831,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 982 @ $65.53 | $64K | −0.0% of holding | −0.5% | +14.8% | 3,833,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 14,095 @ $62.12 | $876K | −0.4% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,937,781 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 10,963 @ $61.25 | $671K | −0.3% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,951,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 8,476 @ $62.94 | $533K | −0.2% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,929,305 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 8,416 @ $60.51 | $509K | −0.2% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,962,839 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 6,661 @ $64.29 | $428K | −0.2% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,922,644 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 3,221 @ $67.87 | $219K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,916,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $65.77 | $86K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,920,344 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $64.96 | $65K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,921,644 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 166 @ $66.77 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | +15.6% | 3,920,178 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Sale | 100,532 @ $68.67 | $6.9M | −2.5% of holding | −5.2% | +8.9% | 4,000,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Cohen Matthew Gregory | director | Award / grant | 11,882 | 11,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 540 | 474,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Hamilton James C | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 246,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Apel Daniel Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 176,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 547,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 440 | 472,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 440 | 472,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 540 | 473,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 540 | 473,828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 560 | 526,081 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 560 | 526,641 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 560 | 525,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 560 | 524,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Gift | 560 | 524,401 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 35,181 | 3,841,107 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 16,545 | 3,857,652 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 35,181 | 16,545 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 16,545 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | PERRY MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 123,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Waddill William D. | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 64,930 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Ferrari Mauro | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 76,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Vakiener Victoria | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 45,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Lu Hongbo | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 54,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | INGRAM DOUGLAS S | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 46,215 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Award / grant | 7,819 | 43,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 4,101,255 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Award / grant | 340,000 | 4,113,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 133,333 | 4,073,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 166,667 | 3,940,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 133,333 | 51,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Option exercise | 166,667 | 185,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Anzalone Christopher Richard | director | Award / grant | 9,550 | 3,773,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | INGRAM DOUGLAS S | director | Award / grant | 38,396 | 38,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-04 | Myszkowski Kenneth Allen | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 500,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-04 | O'Brien Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 564,385 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-04 | Hamilton James C | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 304,851 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-18 | PERRY MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 16,733 | 131,490 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-18 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Award / grant | 16,733 | 39,590 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-18 | Lu Hongbo | director | Award / grant | 16,733 | 47,163 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-18 | Ferrari Mauro | director | Award / grant | 16,733 | 77,514 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.