ARW · TickerCove

ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.Technology · Technology Distributorsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $211.70 · now $211.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARW has typically landed between $186.07 and $242.15 — a range of −12.1% to +14.4% from the issuance price $211.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($211.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$211.7 · 83% of range

$101.87 low$234.83 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 11.5%

−12.1%worst (p90)+14.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ARW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $211.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $211.7 (+0.0%)
typical $213.3 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $201.15–$225.45
90% range $186.07–$242.15

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−47.8%	−47.8%	+1.8%
2008-09-25	−43.8%	−43.8%	+0.6%
2008-09-26	−43.7%	−44.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-04	+47.9%	+0.0%	+47.9%
2008-12-02	+47.3%	+0.0%	+47.3%
2008-12-01	+47.0%	+0.0%	+47.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+0.9%

n=20

Feb

65%

+2.2%

n=20

Mar

60%

+1.8%

n=20

Apr

50%

+2.8%

n=20

May

75%

+1.6%

n=20

Jun

40%

−1.8%

n=20

Jul

75%

+3.4%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

−2.7%

n=20

Oct

45%

−0.6%

n=20

Nov

80%

+3.1%

n=20

Dec

65%

+4.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $209.85	$210K	−7.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	11,626	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	14,331 @ $228.36	$3.3M	−39.8% of holding	−11.8%	not yet — horizon still open	21,670	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	6,600 @ $228.92	$1.5M	−23.3% of holding	−11.8%	not yet — horizon still open	21,670	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	4,600 @ $215.15	$990K	−14.0% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	28,270	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $216.00	$648K	−19.2% of holding	+4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	12,626	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	16,000 @ $212.08	$3.4M	−32.7% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	32,870	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20	Nowak Eric	officer	Sale	3,473 @ $210.99	$733K	−6.6% of holding	+8.8%	not yet — horizon still open	48,835	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	2,187 @ $160.00	$350K	−12.3% of holding	−5.6%	+13.9%	15,626	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	1,891 @ $160.00	$303K	−10.8% of holding	−5.6%	+13.9%	15,626	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19	Austen William F.	director	Purchase	3,960 @ $151.87	$601K	+9.7% of holding	−6.2%	+22.3%	44,722	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Marano Richard John	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $155.32	$388K	−9.4% of holding	−5.2%	+26.8%	24,096	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Nowak Eric	officer	Sale	5,034 @ $156.63	$788K	−10.4% of holding	−6.7%	+19.5%	43,509	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $156.65	$627K	−19.7% of holding	−6.7%	+19.5%	16,261	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Nowak Eric	officer	Sale	3,972 @ $157.45	$625K	−7.2% of holding	−6.7%	+19.5%	50,901	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Nowak Eric	officer	Sale	3,693 @ $157.33	$581K	−7.3% of holding	−6.7%	+19.5%	46,982	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Sale	1,456 @ $157.27	$229K	−100.0% of holding	−6.7%	+19.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01	Kerins Sean J	director	Purchase	8,630 @ $114.91	$992K	+7.6% of holding	+4.8%	+4.0%	122,408	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	10,810 @ $123.45	$1.3M	−19.5% of holding	+2.3%	−21.5%	44,628	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Zech Gretchen	officer	Sale	2,936 @ $123.47	$363K	−6.2% of holding	+2.3%	−21.5%	44,628	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-11	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Sale	2,660 @ $124.64	$332K	−13.5% of holding	+1.8%	−21.5%	17,057	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	Nowak Eric	officer	Sale	4,952 @ $122.39	$606K	−10.1% of holding	−1.0%	−25.3%	43,895	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	HAMILTON GAIL	director	Sale	1,458 @ $122.39	$178K	−93.5% of holding	−1.0%	−25.3%	101	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12	Austen William F.	director	Purchase	1,900 @ $104.12	$198K	+31.9% of holding	+0.1%	+7.6%	7,858	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Cho Yun Sung	officer	Sale	353 @ $112.11	$40K	−18.6% of holding	−0.8%	+7.2%	1,549	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14	Cho Yun Sung	officer	Sale	237 @ $108.73	$26K	−10.2% of holding	+6.4%	+7.0%	2,086	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

158 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Agrawal Rajesh K.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,414	55,581	Form 4
2026-08-14	Hayford Michael D	director	Award / grant	129	2,055	Form 4
2026-08-14	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Award / grant	146	14,757	Form 4
2026-08-14	Gunby Steven Henry	director	Award / grant	129	9,304	Form 4
2026-08-14	Lowe Carol P	director	Award / grant	164	4,773	Form 4
2026-06-02	Zech Gretchen	officer	Option exercise	14,331	36,001	Form 4
2026-06-02	Zech Gretchen	officer	Option exercise	14,331	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hayford Michael D	director	Award / grant	132	1,927	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Award / grant	150	14,610	Form 4
2026-05-15	Gunby Steven Henry	director	Award / grant	132	9,175	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lowe Carol P	director	Award / grant	168	4,610	Form 4
2026-05-12	Gunby Steven Henry	director	Award / grant	1,713	20,676	Form 4
2026-05-12	MCDOWELL MARY T	director	Award / grant	968	5,638	Form 4
2026-05-12	Chen Lawrence Liren	director	Award / grant	968	3,289	Form 4
2026-05-12	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Award / grant	968	14,490	Form 4
2026-05-12	Lowe Carol P	director	Award / grant	968	8,004	Form 4
2026-05-12	SMITH GERRY P	director	Award / grant	968	9,534	Form 4
2026-05-12	Hayford Michael D	director	Award / grant	968	4,119	Form 4
2026-05-06	HAMILTON GAIL	director	Option exercise	1,694	1,795	Form 4
2026-05-06	HAMILTON GAIL	director	Option exercise	1,694	20,650	Form 4
2026-05-06	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Option exercise	1,694	13,523	Form 4
2026-05-06	Kerin Andrew Charles	director	Option exercise	1,694	0	Form 4
2026-05-06	MCDOWELL MARY T	director	Option exercise	1,694	4,670	Form 4
2026-05-06	MCDOWELL MARY T	director	Option exercise	1,694	0	Form 4
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Option exercise	2,187	17,813	Form 4
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Option exercise	1,891	17,517	Form 4
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Option exercise	2,187	0	Form 4
2026-02-23	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Option exercise	1,891	0	Form 4
2026-02-20	Agrawal Rajesh K.	officer	Withheld for tax	990	59,995	Form 4
2026-02-20	Zech Gretchen	officer	Withheld for tax	713	48,870	Form 4
2026-02-20	Marano Richard John	officer	Withheld for tax	548	23,548	Form 4
2026-02-20	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Withheld for tax	404	15,626	Form 4
2026-02-20	Brewbaker Brandon Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	79	5,599	Form 4
2026-02-13	Agrawal Rajesh K.	officer	Withheld for tax	916	60,985	Form 4
2026-02-13	Zech Gretchen	officer	Withheld for tax	660	49,583	Form 4
2026-02-13	Zech Gretchen	officer	Withheld for tax	643	50,243	Form 4
2026-02-13	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Withheld for tax	374	16,030	Form 4
2026-02-13	Jean-Claude Carine Lamercie	officer	Withheld for tax	300	16,404	Form 4
2026-02-13	Marano Richard John	officer	Withheld for tax	253	26,596	Form 4
2026-02-13	Marano Richard John	officer	Withheld for tax	226	26,849	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i