ARVNArvinas, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.59 · now $7.59 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ARVN has typically landed between $5.61 and $9.83 — a range of −26.1% to +29.5% from the issuance price $7.59.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,987 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-27 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.61worst · -26.1%$9.83best · +29.5%
  • now $7.59 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.37 (-2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.54–$8.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.61–$9.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,987 windows spanning 2018-09-27 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-07−65.2%−65.2%+0.0%
2025-03-10−64.7%−64.7%+0.0%
2025-03-06−63.7%−63.7%+1.2%
3 best
2020-11-23+251.2%+0.0%+251.2%
2020-11-30+251.0%+0.0%+251.0%
2020-11-24+245.9%−1.7%+245.9%

1,987 overlapping windows · 2018-09-27 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2027-11-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate ARV-806 in Adults With Advanced Cancer That Has the KRAS G12D Mutation (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2031-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate ARV-6723 Alone and With Pembrolizumab in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.8%
n=8
Feb
50%
+0.9%
n=8
Mar
13%
−18.9%
n=8
Apr
50%
+7.6%
n=8
May
38%
−12.7%
n=8
Jun
75%
+0.2%
n=8
Jul
63%
+9.2%
n=8
Aug
38%
−3.4%
n=8
Sep
25%
−8.7%
n=8
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=8
Nov
75%
+17.1%
n=8
Dec
50%
+34.9%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$72026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $46K — Saik Andrew2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $20K — Cacace Angela M2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $20K — Teel Randy2026-05-11: 5 insider sales, $432K — Saik Andrew, Berkowitz Noah, Cacace Angela M, Teel Randy …2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $71K — Berkowitz Noah2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $268K — Morrison Briggs2026-02-27: 3 insider sales, $466K — Houston John G …2026-02-23: 5 insider sales, $116K — Teel Randy, Cacace Angela M, Loomis David K …2026-02-13: 5 insider sales, $248K — Berkowitz Noah, Saik Andrew, Cacace Angela M, Teel Randy …2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $2K — Loomis David K2025-09-22: 1 insider purchase, $227K — Morrison Briggs2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $227K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $2K2026-02: 13 open-market sales, $829K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $268K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $71K2026-05: 6 open-market sales, $452K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $66K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Saik Andrew — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed same dayofficer Cacace Angela M — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Teel Randy — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Saik Andrew — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Berkowitz Noah — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cacace Angela M — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Teel Randy — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Loomis David K — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Berkowitz Noah — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Morrison Briggs — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Houston John G — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Houston John G — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Houston John G — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Teel Randy — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cacace Angela M — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Loomis David K — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Teel Randy — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cacace Angela M — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Berkowitz Noah — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Saik Andrew — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Cacace Angela M — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Teel Randy — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Loomis David K — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Loomis David K — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed same daydirector Morrison Briggs — Purchase on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-24Saik AndrewdirectorSale5,696 @ $8.16$46K−2.9% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open187,432Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-17Cacace Angela MofficerSale2,576 @ $7.59$20K−1.4% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open180,390Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Teel RandydirectorSale2,209 @ $9.04$20K−0.8% of holding−9.6%not yet — horizon still open285,009Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Saik AndrewdirectorSale11,139 @ $9.94$111K−5.5% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open193,128Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Berkowitz NoahofficerSale11,108 @ $9.94$110K−5.5% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open191,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Cacace Angela MofficerSale9,657 @ $9.94$96K−5.0% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open182,966Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Teel RandydirectorSale9,657 @ $9.94$96K−3.3% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open287,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Loomis David KofficerSale1,919 @ $9.94$19K−4.6% of holding−25.9%not yet — horizon still open40,193Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18Berkowitz NoahofficerSale6,435 @ $11.10$71K−3.1% of holding−6.6%−39.3%202,503Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06Morrison BriggsdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $13.40$268K+26.3% of holding−14.7%−46.1%96,021Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Houston John GdirectorSale18,822 @ $13.24$249K−1.6% of holding−15.7%−43.6%1,133,970Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Houston John GdirectorSale11,787 @ $13.14$155K−1.0% of holding−15.7%−43.6%1,122,183Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Houston John GdirectorSale4,688 @ $13.24$62K−0.4% of holding−15.7%−43.6%1,152,792Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-23Teel RandydirectorSale3,748 @ $12.16$46K−2.4% of holding−12.3%−36.5%149,696Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Cacace Angela MofficerSale2,571 @ $12.16$31K−1.7% of holding−12.3%−36.5%147,623Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Loomis David KofficerSale1,108 @ $12.16$13K−3.6% of holding−12.3%−36.5%29,692Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Teel RandydirectorSale1,038 @ $12.16$13K−0.7% of holding−12.3%−36.5%153,444Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Cacace Angela MofficerSale1,038 @ $12.16$13K−0.7% of holding−12.3%−36.5%150,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13Berkowitz NoahofficerSale5,685 @ $11.89$68K−3.4% of holding+4.7%−35.0%163,938Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Saik AndrewdirectorSale5,134 @ $11.89$61K−3.1% of holding+4.7%−35.0%159,267Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Cacace Angela MofficerSale4,592 @ $11.89$55K−2.9% of holding+4.7%−35.0%151,232Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Teel RandydirectorSale4,403 @ $11.89$52K−2.8% of holding+4.7%−35.0%154,482Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Loomis David KofficerSale1,016 @ $11.89$12K−3.2% of holding+4.7%−35.0%30,800Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07Loomis David KofficerSale230 @ $9.89$2K−0.7% of holding+21.4%−20.6%31,697Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-22Morrison BriggsdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $7.57$227K+65.2% of holding+27.6%+38.1%76,021Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-24Saik AndrewdirectorSale5,700 @ $7.61$43K−3.4% of holding−2.6%+45.7%164,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17Cacace Angela MofficerSale2,583 @ $7.49$19K−1.6% of holding−7.1%+44.8%154,248Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18Berkowitz NoahofficerSale8,658 @ $8.59$74K−7.3% of holding−3.1%−27.8%110,023Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Houston John GdirectorSale26,184 @ $16.75$439K−2.2% of holding−48.1%−63.6%1,162,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Taylor IanofficerSale7,356 @ $16.75$123K−4.4% of holding−48.1%−63.6%160,785Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Houston John GdirectorSale5,154 @ $16.55$85K−0.4% of holding−48.1%−63.6%1,157,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Cacace Angela MofficerSale3,061 @ $16.75$51K−3.0% of holding−48.1%−63.6%98,377Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Taylor IanofficerSale1,664 @ $16.55$28K−1.0% of holding−48.1%−63.6%159,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Loomis David KofficerSale1,214 @ $16.75$20K−6.0% of holding−48.1%−63.6%18,863Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Cacace Angela MofficerSale1,146 @ $16.55$19K−1.2% of holding−48.1%−63.6%97,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-11-07Loomis David KofficerSale231 @ $27.69$6K−2.8% of holding−11.1%−76.5%8,040Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-02-23Houston John GdirectorSale5,196 @ $47.05$244K−0.5% of holding−16.1%−55.7%1,036,681Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-02-23Cassidy Sean AdirectorSale1,702 @ $47.05$80K−0.9% of holding−16.1%−55.7%181,916Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-02-23Taylor IanofficerSale1,701 @ $47.05$80K−1.1% of holding−16.1%−55.7%147,522Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-02-23Peck RonaldofficerSale1,699 @ $47.05$80K−2.5% of holding−16.1%−55.7%67,516Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2023-11-08Loomis David KofficerSale229 @ $17.05$4K−2.7% of holding+101.7%+70.5%8,271Form 4 · filed 370 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-24Bain LindadirectorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Cunningham EverettdirectorAward / grant15,52741,572Form 4
2026-06-24Cunningham EverettdirectorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Kennedy Edward Moore Jr.directorAward / grant15,52754,957Form 4
2026-06-24Kennedy Edward Moore Jr.directorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Morrison BriggsdirectorAward / grant15,527111,548Form 4
2026-06-24Morrison BriggsdirectorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Norwalk Leslie VdirectorAward / grant15,52741,572Form 4
2026-06-24Norwalk Leslie VdirectorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Smaldone Alsup LauriedirectorAward / grant15,52741,572Form 4
2026-06-24Smaldone Alsup LauriedirectorAward / grant22,71422,714Form 4
2026-06-24Bain LindadirectorAward / grant15,52741,572Form 4
2026-02-26Cacace Angela MofficerAward / grant67,00067,000Form 4
2026-02-26Cacace Angela MofficerAward / grant45,000192,623Form 4
2026-02-26Teel RandydirectorAward / grant147,791297,487Form 4
2026-02-26Saik AndrewdirectorAward / grant67,00067,000Form 4
2026-02-26Loomis David KofficerAward / grant18,50418,504Form 4
2026-02-26Berkowitz NoahofficerAward / grant67,00067,000Form 4
2026-02-26Teel RandydirectorAward / grant218,691218,691Form 4
2026-02-26Berkowitz NoahofficerAward / grant45,000208,938Form 4
2026-02-26Loomis David KofficerAward / grant12,42042,112Form 4
2026-02-26Saik AndrewdirectorAward / grant45,000204,267Form 4
2025-06-25Bain LindadirectorAward / grant16,02526,045Form 4
2025-06-25Smaldone Alsup LauriedirectorAward / grant16,02526,045Form 4
2025-06-25Smaldone Alsup LauriedirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25Bain LindadirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25YOUNG JOHN DdirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25Norwalk Leslie VdirectorAward / grant16,02526,045Form 4
2025-06-25Morrison BriggsdirectorAward / grant16,02546,021Form 4
2025-06-25Morrison BriggsdirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25YOUNG JOHN DdirectorAward / grant16,02526,045Form 4
2025-06-25Cunningham EverettdirectorAward / grant16,02526,045Form 4
2025-06-25Cunningham EverettdirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25Kennedy Edward Moore Jr.directorAward / grant16,02539,430Form 4
2025-06-25Kennedy Edward Moore Jr.directorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25Norwalk Leslie VdirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-06-25AGARWAL SUNILdirectorAward / grant16,02530,166Form 4
2025-06-25AGARWAL SUNILdirectorAward / grant23,10523,105Form 4
2025-05-09Berkowitz NoahofficerAward / grant59,600169,623Form 4
2025-05-09Berkowitz NoahofficerAward / grant91,00091,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.