Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.60 · now $8.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARTV has typically landed between $5.37 and $15.51 — a range of −37.6% to +80.3% from the issuance price $8.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
519 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARTV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.78 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.07–$10.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.37–$15.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 519 windows spanning 2024-07-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −70.6% | −70.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | −66.3% | −67.5% | +5.9% |
| 2025-03-13 | −64.6% | −67.1% | +4.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-19 | +142.6% | −9.2% | +142.6% |
| 2026-03-20 | +135.7% | −5.8% | +151.7% |
| 2025-06-25 | +125.0% | −8.1% | +125.0% |
519 overlapping windows · 2024-07-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: AlloNK®, an Allogeneic Non-genetically Modified, Cord Blood-derived NK Cell Therapy, in Combination With Rituximab, Studied in Relapsing Forms of B-cell Dependent Rheumatologic Diseases. (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−29.5%
n=2
Feb
50%
+15.7%
n=2
Mar
50%
−8.5%
n=2
Apr
50%
+19.3%
n=2
May
0%
−20.9%
n=2
Jun
50%
+0.3%
n=2
Jul
100%
+51.4%
n=2
Aug
67%
+4.9%
n=3
Sep
33%
+0.4%
n=3
Oct
50%
+5.5%
n=2
Nov
50%
+8.1%
n=2
Dec
50%
−3.5%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 23,429 @ $10.92 | $256K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,449,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 61,888 @ $11.16 | $690K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,473,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Horan Christopher | officer | Sale | 10,366 @ $11.16 | $116K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 283,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,391 @ $11.16 | $94K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 329,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $11.16 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 140,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Sale | 8,222 @ $12.01 | $99K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Sale | 429 @ $12.00 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 144,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 24,944 @ $9.93 | $248K | +0.1% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,329,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 20,824 @ $9.99 | $208K | +0.1% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,304,626 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 41,319 @ $9.99 | $413K | +0.2% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,283,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 59,880 @ $9.96 | $596K | +0.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,242,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-22 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 84,124 @ $9.93 | $835K | +0.5% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,182,603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 120,582 @ $9.55 | $1.2M | +0.7% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,098,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 7,882 @ $8.95 | $71K | +0.0% of holding | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,977,927 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 152,472 @ $8.93 | $1.4M | +0.9% of holding | +23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,970,045 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 6,552 @ $8.94 | $59K | +0.0% of holding | +29.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,817,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,102 @ $8.97 | $135K | +0.1% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,811,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,876 @ $8.98 | $17K | +0.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,795,919 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 31,000 @ $8.88 | $275K | +0.2% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,794,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 124,893 @ $8.89 | $1.1M | +0.8% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,763,043 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 15,414 @ $8.99 | $139K | +0.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,638,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 391,019 @ $8.57 | $3.4M | +2.4% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,622,736 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 548,580 @ $7.91 | $4.3M | +3.5% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,231,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 103 @ $7.00 | $721 | +0.0% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,683,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 479,039 @ $6.91 | $3.3M | +3.2% of holding | +29.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,683,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 27,116 @ $9.01 | $244K | −1.7% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,535,082 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Sale | 8,790 @ $9.01 | $79K | −2.5% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 337,920 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Sale | 7,037 @ $9.01 | $63K | −4.6% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Horan Christopher | officer | Sale | 7,002 @ $9.01 | $63K | −2.3% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Raymon Heather | officer | Sale | 3,095 @ $9.01 | $28K | −2.0% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,228 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 6,510,416 @ $11.52 | $75.0M | +74.9% of holding | −28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,203,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 2,170,138 @ $11.52 | $25.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,170,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | GC Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,085,069 @ $11.52 | $12.5M | +32.8% of holding | −28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,391,969 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | GC Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 347,222 @ $11.52 | $4.0M | +27.5% of holding | −28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,607,734 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 3,187 @ $6.00 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | +33.3% | +191.9% | 1,209,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 6,375 @ $3.38 | $22K | −1.8% of holding | +30.9% | +115.4% | 343,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 25,500 @ $6.00 | $153K | −6.7% of holding | +26.0% | +315.2% | 356,721 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Aslan Fred | director | Sale | 25,500 @ $2.73 | $70K | −6.2% of holding | −16.4% | +57.7% | 386,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Aslan Fred | director | Award / grant | 315,000 | 315,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Aslan Fred | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 1,604,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Aslan Fred | director | Award / grant | 155,000 | 155,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Aslan Fred | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 1,494,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Stoppel Laura | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | HOUGEN ELIZABETH L | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | DANIELS BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Baker Daniel G. | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Sorg Elaine K. | director | Award / grant | 16,250 | 16,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Miralles Gines Diego | director | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 170,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Award / grant | 85,000 | 85,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 374,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Horan Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 323,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Horan Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Miralles Gines Diego | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 122,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Stoppel Laura | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Baker Daniel G. | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | HOUGEN ELIZABETH L | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Sorg Elaine K. | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | DANIELS BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 13,750 | 13,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Option exercise | 5,306 | 150,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Option exercise | 5,306 | 74,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Option exercise | 429 | 145,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Banerjee Subhashis | officer | Option exercise | 429 | 79,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Miralles Gines Diego | director | Award / grant | 232,500 | 232,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Miralles Gines Diego | director | Award / grant | 77,500 | 77,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Huston Thad Allen | officer | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Sorg Elaine K. | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aslan Fred | director | Withheld for tax | 14,600 | 1,562,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,515 | 346,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Horan Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,187 | 300,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Raymon Heather | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,521 | 151,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Raymon Heather | officer | Award / grant | 46,000 | 152,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Bush Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 117,300 | 350,225 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.