Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.14 · now $26.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARQT has typically landed between $19.08 and $35.13 — a range of −27.0% to +34.4% from the issuance price $26.14.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,644 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARQT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.14 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.25 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.98–$29.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.08–$35.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,644 windows spanning 2020-01-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-26 | −59.2% | −59.2% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-25 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.9% |
| 2023-09-28 | −57.8% | −57.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-19 | +191.7% | +0.0% | +191.7% |
| 2024-01-18 | +184.4% | −0.6% | +184.4% |
| 2024-01-22 | +161.9% | +0.0% | +167.8% |
1,644 overlapping windows · 2020-01-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+7.7%
n=6
Feb
86%
+21.1%
n=7
Mar
43%
−4.1%
n=7
Apr
43%
+3.4%
n=7
May
43%
−10.1%
n=7
Jun
86%
+9.1%
n=7
Jul
71%
+2.4%
n=7
Aug
43%
−3.2%
n=7
Sep
57%
−3.0%
n=7
Oct
17%
−15.3%
n=6
Nov
50%
+14.6%
n=6
Dec
67%
+15.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 9,989 @ $25.03 | $250K | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 27,052 @ $25.03 | $677K | −53.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 11,148 @ $25.03 | $279K | −32.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 1,072 @ $26.04 | $28K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,526 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 1,697 @ $27.00 | $46K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 4,730 @ $26.18 | $124K | −11.5% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 6,700 @ $26.08 | $175K | −5.3% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 8,300 @ $26.52 | $220K | −6.5% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 4,375 @ $26.12 | $114K | −0.6% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 717,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 1,230 @ $26.12 | $32K | −1.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 955 @ $26.12 | $25K | −0.8% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 4,730 @ $26.91 | $127K | −11.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 635 @ $25.67 | $16K | −1.7% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,743 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | LIN SUE-JEAN | director | Sale | 4,946 @ $24.38 | $121K | −15.2% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 4,096 @ $24.41 | $100K | −9.6% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Vairavan Latha | officer | Sale | 435 @ $21.05 | $9K | −0.5% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 222 @ $21.05 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 7,372 @ $23.27 | $172K | −5.5% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,573 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 3,172 @ $23.61 | $75K | −0.4% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 720,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Vairavan Latha | officer | Sale | 1,341 @ $23.61 | $32K | −1.5% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 884 @ $23.61 | $21K | −0.7% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 684 @ $23.61 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 7,144 @ $22.99 | $164K | −18.0% of holding | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $23.88 | $239K | −20.1% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Leonard Keith R | director | Sale | 39,272 @ $25.39 | $997K | −64.0% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 22,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 36,281 @ $25.16 | $913K | −4.4% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 787,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.65 | $257K | −16.7% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 49,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 6,553 @ $25.16 | $165K | −4.6% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 137,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 6,106 @ $25.16 | $154K | −4.8% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 121,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Edwards Larry Todd | officer | Sale | 3,584 @ $25.16 | $90K | −2.0% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 175,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vairavan Latha | officer | Sale | 2,772 @ $25.16 | $70K | −3.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 87,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 1,987 @ $25.70 | $51K | −1.4% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 136,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 1,068 @ $25.91 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 785,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 193 @ $25.91 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 136,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 181 @ $25.91 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 121,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Edwards Larry Todd | officer | Sale | 103 @ $25.91 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 175,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Vairavan Latha | officer | Sale | 81 @ $25.91 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | −15.5% | 87,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 3,325 @ $27.95 | $93K | −2.3% of holding | −13.3% | −24.6% | 143,678 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 9,794 @ $25.81 | $253K | −10.8% of holding | −6.0% | −11.3% | 80,651 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 19,833 @ $25.50 | $506K | −2.7% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 721,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 19,379 @ $25.24 | $489K | −14.5% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 114,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.05 | $250K | −14.3% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 59,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 8,562 @ $24.97 | $214K | −6.0% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 134,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 7,983 @ $25.50 | $204K | −5.3% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 142,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 4,714 @ $25.63 | $121K | −4.1% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 110,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 3,675 @ $25.50 | $94K | −3.9% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 90,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Edwards Larry Todd | officer | Sale | 2,052 @ $25.50 | $52K | −1.4% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 148,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Vairavan Latha | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $25.50 | $34K | −2.0% of holding | −4.2% | −9.7% | 63,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,490 @ $28.98 | $72K | −2.6% of holding | −13.4% | −14.6% | 94,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $28.96 | $290K | −12.5% of holding | −10.6% | −14.6% | 69,744 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 1,156 @ $29.39 | $34K | −1.2% of holding | −13.9% | −21.0% | 96,610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 541 @ $28.81 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | −13.9% | −21.0% | 97,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Sale | 11,500 @ $28.94 | $333K | −10.5% of holding | −10.9% | −18.9% | 98,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.21 | $302K | −11.1% of holding | −4.9% | −41.2% | 79,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 1,657 @ $30.23 | $50K | −1.1% of holding | −4.9% | −41.2% | 150,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 48,945 @ $30.36 | $1.5M | −6.2% of holding | −7.8% | −43.8% | 740,537 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | LIN SUE-JEAN | director | Sale | 25,272 @ $30.78 | $778K | −48.6% of holding | −7.8% | −43.8% | 26,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Watanabe Todd | director | Sale | 1,055 @ $30.00 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | −42.8% | 793,838 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Gilbert Halley E | director | Sale | 16,532 @ $27.55 | $455K | −42.8% of holding | +4.1% | −38.4% | 22,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Matsuda Masaru | officer | Sale | 1,561 @ $28.50 | $44K | −1.0% of holding | −2.6% | −38.4% | 151,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 27,052 | 50,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 11,148 | 34,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 27,052 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 11,148 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 1,072 | 24,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Curran Terrie | director | Option exercise | 1,072 | 11,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 41,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 38,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 37,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 7,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 9,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 20,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 6,700 | 125,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 6,700 | 128,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 8,300 | 127,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Burnett Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 8,300 | 135,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 41,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 39,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 38,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Peetz Christopher | director | Award / grant | 21,486 | 21,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 22,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Peetz Christopher | director | Award / grant | 4,315 | 4,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Peetz Christopher | director | Award / grant | 13,010 | 13,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 8,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 10,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 42,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 40,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 39,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 24,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 1,019 | 11,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Option exercise | 822 | 9,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Welgus Howard G. | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 38,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Krishnamohan Neha | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 27,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Krishnamohan Neha | director | Award / grant | 16,667 | 16,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gilbert Halley E | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 27,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gilbert Halley E | director | Award / grant | 16,667 | 16,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Munshi Amit | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 9,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Munshi Amit | director | Award / grant | 16,667 | 16,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Curran Terrie | director | Award / grant | 5,778 | 23,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Curran Terrie | director | Award / grant | 16,667 | 16,667 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.