Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.11 · now $2.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARQ has typically landed between $1.57 and $2.85 — a range of −25.6% to +35.0% from the issuance price $2.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.08 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.84–$2.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.57–$2.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-04-08 | −61.6% | −61.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −59.2% | −59.2% | +0.7% |
| 2014-12-31 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-12-08 | +171.5% | −1.6% | +171.5% |
| 2010-12-09 | +171.1% | +0.0% | +175.8% |
| 2009-11-20 | +166.2% | +0.0% | +166.2% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
+5.3%
n=20
Mar
40%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
40%
+2.5%
n=20
May
45%
+2.5%
n=20
Jun
40%
+2.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
−3.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.3%
n=20
Oct
35%
−5.1%
n=20
Nov
50%
+4.8%
n=20
Dec
60%
+13.3%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 1,874 @ $2.34 | $4K | +14.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 1,098 @ $2.34 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 353,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 4,356 @ $2.27 | $10K | +49.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,126 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 1,402 @ $2.29 | $3K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 351,925 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 8,770 @ $2.23 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,770 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Purchase | 7,500 @ $2.22 | $17K | +2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 350,523 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Voncannon Jay Loring | officer | Sale | 16,709 @ $2.27 | $38K | −25.7% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Campbell-Breeden Richard | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $2.21 | $332K | +58.9% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 404,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.89 | $19K | +2.6% of holding | +15.2% | −1.4% | 400,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.92 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +20.6% | −3.7% | 102,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | EICHER CAROL S | director | Purchase | 77,500 @ $1.95 | $151K | +80.3% of holding | +11.5% | −4.0% | 174,010 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.92 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +0.6% | −7.5% | 101,491 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Campbell-Breeden Richard | director | Purchase | 28,638 @ $3.54 | $101K | +12.7% of holding | +2.8% | −34.4% | 254,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Voncannon Jay Loring | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $3.55 | $21K | +10.2% of holding | +2.8% | −34.4% | 65,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $3.79 | $190K | +241.3% of holding | −0.9% | −39.9% | 70,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Voncannon Jay Loring | officer | Purchase | 9,000 @ $3.74 | $34K | +18.0% of holding | −0.9% | −39.9% | 59,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Sale | 3,052 @ $5.20 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | +29.3% | −45.2% | 367,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Hansen Stacia | officer | Sale | 2,742 @ $5.20 | $14K | −3.6% of holding | +29.3% | −45.2% | 73,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Sale | 2,591 @ $5.20 | $13K | −3.0% of holding | +29.3% | −45.2% | 82,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Sale | 1,782 @ $5.20 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | +29.3% | −45.2% | 137,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Campbell-Breeden Richard | director | Purchase | 75,000 @ $4.10 | $308K | +49.6% of holding | +4.5% | −37.4% | 226,148 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Blank Jeremy | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $4.10 | $205K | +15.4% of holding | +4.5% | −37.4% | 374,955 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $4.10 | $102K | +5.5% of holding | +4.5% | −37.4% | 480,782 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Purchase | 16,000 @ $4.61 | $74K | +4.5% of holding | +3.3% | −38.3% | 370,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 12,535 @ $3.93 | $49K | +153.2% of holding | +22.3% | −24.9% | 20,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 2,921 @ $4.00 | $12K | +55.5% of holding | +26.9% | −30.9% | 8,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 4,680 @ $4.00 | $19K | +804.1% of holding | +24.3% | −29.4% | 5,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $4.02 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | +24.3% | −29.4% | 139,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Purchase | 582 @ $3.60 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +31.3% | −20.9% | 582 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Sale | 6,596 @ $4.68 | $31K | −1.8% of holding | −15.3% | +39.3% | 354,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Sale | 5,233 @ $4.68 | $24K | −3.6% of holding | −15.3% | +39.3% | 138,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Sale | 5,202 @ $4.68 | $24K | −5.8% of holding | −15.3% | +39.3% | 85,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Hansen Stacia | officer | Sale | 3,557 @ $4.68 | $17K | −4.5% of holding | −15.3% | +39.3% | 75,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Owino Peter Oluoch | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 161,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Owino Peter Oluoch | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 61,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Owino Peter Oluoch | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 506,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 155,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Award / grant | 93,023 | 343,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Award / grant | 93,023 | 93,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 451,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 61,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Award / grant | 61,047 | 61,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Steinmetz Shimon | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Disposition | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | EICHER CAROL S | director | Award / grant | 24,641 | 198,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Campbell-Breeden Richard | director | Award / grant | 49,283 | 136,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McIntyre Julian Alexander | director | Award / grant | 49,283 | 108,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bergman Laurie | director | Award / grant | 24,641 | 76,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Blank Jeremy | director | Award / grant | 49,283 | 128,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,085 | 390,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Hansen Stacia | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,894 | 64,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,025 | 94,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Rasmus Robert E. | director | Withheld for tax | 845 | 479,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,282 | 185,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,338 | 390,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,176 | 100,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 51,467 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Option exercise | 30,225 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Option exercise | 21,179 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Option exercise | 28,229 | 110,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 68,600 | 203,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Option exercise | 40,286 | 408,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 68,600 | 203,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wong Joseph M | officer | Option exercise | 40,286 | 408,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Smith Claiborne Benson | officer | Option exercise | 28,229 | 110,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-25 | McIntyre Julian Alexander | director | Other acquisition | 30,000 | 3,191,289 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Williamson Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,029 | 135,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | McIntyre Julian Alexander | director | Award / grant | 21,828 | 58,978 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | EICHER CAROL S | director | Award / grant | 14,552 | 96,510 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.