AROCArchrock, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.05 · now $31.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AROC has typically landed between $26.98 and $36.86 — a range of −13.1% to +18.7% from the issuance price $31.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AROC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$26.98worst · -13.1%$36.86best · +18.7%
  • now $31.05 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.84 (+2.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.77–$33.9
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.98–$36.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−75.2%−75.2%+4.5%
2020-02-20−61.9%−76.3%+0.0%
2020-02-19−57.7%−75.5%+3.5%
3 best
2020-03-18+92.6%+0.0%+93.9%
2016-02-29+88.7%+0.0%+88.7%
2016-02-25+87.0%+0.0%+88.0%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
70%
+6.4%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.7%
n=20
Apr
55%
+6.0%
n=20
May
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Jul
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
40%
−3.2%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$232026-05-18: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — Aron Doug S, Ingersoll Jason2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Aron Doug S2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Aron Doug S2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Aron Doug S2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $383K — Henderson Donna A2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Thode Eric W2025-09-22: 1 insider purchase, $120K — Rebrook Jason C2025-09-19: 1 insider purchase, $242K — Rebrook Jason C2025-09-18: 1 insider purchase, $242K — Rebrook Jason C2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $235K — Thode Eric W2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $235K2025-09: 3 open-market purchases, $603K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $6.3M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $5.9M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Aron Doug S — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed same dayofficer Ingersoll Jason — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aron Doug S — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Aron Doug S — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aron Doug S — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Henderson Donna A — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Thode Eric W — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed same daydirector Rebrook Jason C — Purchase on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rebrook Jason C — Purchase on 2025-09-19, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Rebrook Jason C — Purchase on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Thode Eric W — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-18Aron Doug SofficerSale35,000 @ $38.30$1.3M−8.9% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open359,337Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18Ingersoll JasonofficerSale33,000 @ $38.19$1.3M−10.6% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open277,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Aron Doug SofficerSale90,000 @ $36.74$3.3M−18.6% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open394,337Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-30Aron Doug SofficerSale98,050 @ $34.76$3.4M−16.8% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open484,337Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-27Aron Doug SofficerSale71,500 @ $35.61$2.5M−10.9% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open582,387Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Henderson Donna AofficerSale10,413 @ $36.74$383K−27.3% of holding−2.4%−24.0%27,757Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10Thode Eric WofficerSale40,740 @ $25.10$1.0M−18.1% of holding+3.5%+39.6%184,216Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-22Rebrook Jason CdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $23.94$120K+6.7% of holding+0.0%+55.0%79,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-19Rebrook Jason CdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $24.16$242K+15.5% of holding+0.9%+55.7%74,511Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-18Rebrook Jason CdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $24.17$242K+18.3% of holding−1.4%+48.7%64,511Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Thode Eric WofficerSale10,000 @ $23.54$235K−4.3% of holding+1.0%+28.7%224,809Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09Ingersoll JasonofficerSale42,036 @ $24.49$1.0M−13.2% of holding−6.4%−18.3%275,911Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-21Henderson Donna AofficerSale8,318 @ $26.36$219K−18.8% of holding−6.0%−24.6%36,024Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-06Singh MohitdirectorAward / grant41,06241,062Form 4
2026-06-25CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorGift25,0002,300,647Form 4
2026-03-03CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorGift43,3502,325,373Form 4
2026-02-27HALL GORDON TdirectorGift7,195235,056Form 4
2026-02-19CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorWithheld for tax96,0772,368,723Form 4
2026-02-19Aron Doug SofficerWithheld for tax35,507653,887Form 4
2026-02-19Hildebrandt Stephanie CofficerWithheld for tax22,975446,537Form 4
2026-02-19Thode Eric WofficerWithheld for tax15,665218,886Form 4
2026-02-19Ingersoll JasonofficerWithheld for tax15,665310,454Form 4
2026-02-18Aron Doug SofficerAward / grant90,232689,394Form 4
2026-02-18Hildebrandt Stephanie CofficerAward / grant58,385469,512Form 4
2026-02-18Ingersoll JasonofficerAward / grant39,807326,119Form 4
2026-02-18CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorAward / grant244,1602,464,800Form 4
2026-02-18Thode Eric WofficerAward / grant39,807234,551Form 4
2026-01-29Thode Eric WofficerAward / grant23,997194,744Form 4
2026-01-29CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorAward / grant95,9892,220,640Form 4
2026-01-29MALLETT LEONARD WAYNEdirectorAward / grant5,31364,824Form 4
2026-01-29Rebrook Jason CdirectorAward / grant5,31384,824Form 4
2026-01-29LYTAL JAMES HdirectorAward / grant5,313131,728Form 4
2026-01-29SEGNER EDMUND P IIIdirectorAward / grant5,313134,300Form 4
2026-01-29Hildebrandt Stephanie CofficerAward / grant27,425411,127Form 4
2026-01-29Henderson Donna AofficerAward / grant5,65638,170Form 4
2026-01-29Ingersoll JasonofficerAward / grant23,997286,312Form 4
2026-01-29HALL GORDON TdirectorAward / grant5,313242,251Form 4
2026-01-29Hawes Frances PowelldirectorAward / grant5,313131,728Form 4
2026-01-29Honeybourne J W GdirectorAward / grant5,313176,406Form 4
2026-01-29Ainsworth Anne-MariedirectorAward / grant5,313131,728Form 4
2026-01-29Aron Doug SofficerAward / grant37,709599,162Form 4
2026-01-27CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorWithheld for tax74,7142,124,651Form 4
2026-01-27Aron Doug SofficerWithheld for tax28,509561,453Form 4
2026-01-27Hildebrandt Stephanie CofficerWithheld for tax19,023383,702Form 4
2026-01-27Thode Eric WofficerWithheld for tax13,632170,747Form 4
2026-01-27Ingersoll JasonofficerWithheld for tax13,596262,315Form 4
2026-01-27Henderson Donna AofficerWithheld for tax3,51032,514Form 4
2025-03-27CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorGift48,1202,198,386Form 4
2025-03-06CHILDERS D BRADLEYdirectorWithheld for tax84,2212,246,506Form 4
2025-03-06Aron Doug SofficerWithheld for tax28,074589,962Form 4
2025-03-06Hildebrandt Stephanie CofficerWithheld for tax16,845402,725Form 4
2025-03-06Ingersoll JasonofficerWithheld for tax12,165317,947Form 4
2025-03-06Thode Eric WofficerWithheld for tax12,165234,809Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.