Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.07 · now $4.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARMP has typically landed between $2.73 and $6.23 — a range of −33.0% to +53.0% from the issuance price $4.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,993 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARMP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.03 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.44–$4.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.73–$6.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-04-24 | −77.0% | −77.0% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-25 | −76.6% | −76.6% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-17 | −75.1% | −75.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-06-24 | +343.8% | +0.0% | +343.8% |
| 2013-06-26 | +306.3% | +0.0% | +343.8% |
| 2013-06-25 | +306.3% | +0.0% | +343.8% |
4,993 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Birx Deborah | director | Withheld for tax | 14,041 | 198,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gilmer Daniel B. | director | Award / grant | 51,280 | 51,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Birx Deborah | director | Withheld for tax | 4,919 | 212,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kyme Pierre | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,030 | 9,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Haimovitz Jules | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Birx Deborah | director | Award / grant | 421,226 | 421,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Odysseas Kostas D | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Peterson Todd C. | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | PATTI JOSEPH M | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | House David Duane | officer | Award / grant | 109,885 | 109,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kyme Pierre | officer | Award / grant | 183,142 | 183,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kramer Robin | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 25,640 | 25,640 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Birx Deborah | director | Withheld for tax | 13,637 | 217,377 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Birx Deborah | director | Withheld for tax | 6,061 | 231,014 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Kyme Pierre | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,027 | 10,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Birx Deborah | director | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | PATTI JOSEPH M | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Peterson Todd C. | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | House David Duane | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Haimovitz Jules | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Kramer Robin | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Kyme Pierre | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Odysseas Kostas D | director | Award / grant | 54,343 | 54,343 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-10 | Birx Deborah | director | Withheld for tax | 22,925 | 237,075 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.