ARMKAramarkas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.61 · now $57.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARMK has typically landed between $50.99 and $65.11 — a range of −11.5% to +13.0% from the issuance price $57.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,175 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-12-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARMK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$50.99worst · -11.5%$65.11best · +13.0%
  • now $57.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.88 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.09–$61.68
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.99–$65.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,175 windows spanning 2013-12-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−69.7%−69.7%+0.2%
2020-02-14−64.7%−64.7%+0.9%
2020-02-21−60.0%−69.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+69.8%+0.0%+80.2%
2020-04-03+48.4%+0.0%+68.3%
2020-04-02+42.3%−5.3%+59.3%

3,175 overlapping windows · 2013-12-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
62%
+1.0%
n=13
Feb
54%
−0.7%
n=13
Mar
46%
−3.2%
n=13
Apr
38%
+2.6%
n=13
May
62%
+4.3%
n=13
Jun
54%
+0.6%
n=13
Jul
62%
+1.0%
n=13
Aug
54%
+3.7%
n=13
Sep
46%
−1.2%
n=13
Oct
67%
+2.9%
n=12
Nov
58%
+4.7%
n=12
Dec
50%
−0.6%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$62$362026-08-13: 2 insider sales, $4.3M — Bruno Marc A …2026-05-18: 2 insider sales, $974K — Harrington Lauren A …2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $974K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $4.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bruno Marc A — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bruno Marc A — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Harrington Lauren A — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Harrington Lauren A — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorSale55,245 @ $60.92$3.4M−12.5% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open386,695Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorSale15,389 @ $61.42$945K−4.0% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open371,306Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Harrington Lauren AofficerSale9,511 @ $53.02$504K−7.0% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open126,854Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Harrington Lauren AofficerSale8,852 @ $53.09$470K−6.5% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open126,854Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorPurchase6,387 @ $39.07$250K+0.8% of holding−4.7%−10.6%831,825Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

224 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Schilling Christopher T.officerAward / grant3340,430Form 4
2026-09-09LOPEZ PATRICIA EdirectorAward / grant6129,204Form 4
2026-09-09Creed GregdirectorAward / grant14468,232Form 4
2026-09-09DREILING RICHARD WdirectorAward / grant3115,041Form 4
2026-09-09Heller Bridgette PdirectorAward / grant7635,897Form 4
2026-09-09KEVERIAN KENNETH MdirectorAward / grant6129,204Form 4
2026-09-09Wills KevindirectorAward / grant3521,975Form 4
2026-09-09ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorAward / grant9181,021,792Form 4
2026-09-09Harrington Lauren AofficerAward / grant104127,068Form 4
2026-09-09SADOVE STEPHEN IdirectorAward / grant188102,694Form 4
2026-09-09Charpentier AbigailofficerAward / grant9781,004Form 4
2026-09-09Bruno Marc AdirectorAward / grant282371,588Form 4
2026-09-09Tarangelo James J.officerAward / grant6263,234Form 4
2026-09-09DelGhiaccio Brian MdirectorAward / grant3516,421Form 4
2026-09-09CAMERON SUSAN M.directorAward / grant10248,436Form 4
2026-09-09King Karen MariedirectorAward / grant2442,827Form 4
2026-09-03Tarangelo James J.officerWithheld for tax6,04863,173Form 4
2026-09-03Tarangelo James J.officerOption exercise8,85269,221Form 4
2026-09-03Tarangelo James J.officerOption exercise8,8520Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorWithheld for tax139,768441,940Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise74,653581,708Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise78,689449,995Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise57,060507,055Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise74,6530Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise78,6890Form 4
2026-08-13Bruno Marc AdirectorOption exercise57,0600Form 4
2026-07-10DREILING RICHARD WdirectorAward / grant47515,009Form 4
2026-07-10Creed GregdirectorAward / grant58368,089Form 4
2026-06-03DelGhiaccio Brian MdirectorAward / grant3716,386Form 4
2026-06-03CAMERON SUSAN M.directorAward / grant10848,334Form 4
2026-06-03Creed GregdirectorAward / grant15167,506Form 4
2026-06-03DREILING RICHARD WdirectorAward / grant3214,534Form 4
2026-06-03Heller Bridgette PdirectorAward / grant8035,821Form 4
2026-06-03KEVERIAN KENNETH MdirectorAward / grant6529,142Form 4
2026-06-03King Karen MariedirectorAward / grant2642,803Form 4
2026-06-03LOPEZ PATRICIA EdirectorAward / grant6529,142Form 4
2026-06-03SADOVE STEPHEN IdirectorAward / grant199102,507Form 4
2026-06-03Wills KevindirectorAward / grant3721,940Form 4
2026-06-03Bruno Marc AdirectorAward / grant299371,306Form 4
2026-06-03Harrington Lauren AofficerAward / grant110126,965Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-01$50–100K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-10$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2025-05-132025-04-10$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-05-062025-04-14$1–15K
William R. KeatingHousepurchase2025-02-252025-02-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-12-162024-11-14$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-12-162024-11-14$50–100K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2024-10-112024-09-19$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-10-102024-09-20$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2024-10-102024-09-20$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.