ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary SharesTechnology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $243.98 · now $243.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARM has typically landed between $179.95 and $350.29 — a range of −26.2% to +43.6% from the issuance price $243.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

732 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($243.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $243.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$179.95worst · -26.2%$350.29best · +43.6%
  • now $243.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $253.27 (+3.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $220.28–$286.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $179.95–$350.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 732 windows spanning 2023-09-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-07-09−41.2%−41.2%+2.3%
2024-07-05−39.0%−39.0%+2.9%
2024-07-08−38.6%−40.2%+1.0%
3 best
2024-01-11+113.5%−1.8%+113.5%
2026-05-04+102.6%+0.0%+102.6%
2024-01-31+100.4%−0.2%+110.8%

732 overlapping windows · 2023-09-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
+6.6%
n=3
Feb
67%
+34.4%
n=3
Mar
33%
−3.9%
n=3
Apr
67%
+8.9%
n=3
May
100%
+32.1%
n=3
Jun
100%
+22.0%
n=3
Jul
0%
−19.0%
n=3
Aug
33%
−3.0%
n=3
Sep
100%
+3.6%
n=3
Oct
33%
+3.6%
n=3
Nov
33%
−0.1%
n=3
Dec
33%
−1.8%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$439$1052026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Child Jason2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — Bartels Laura Kathleen2026-06-01: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — Abbey William …2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Abbey William2026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $703K — Abbey William2026-05-21: 4 insider sales, $4.7M — Eaton Charlotte Claire, Abbey William …2026-05-20: 3 insider sales, $9.3M — Child Jason, Abbey William, Eaton Charlotte Claire2026-05-19: 2 insider sales, $11.2M — Collins Spencer, Abbey William2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $5.1M — Grisenthwaite Richard Roy2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Abbey William2026-05-11: 8 insider sales, $11.0M — Collins Spencer …2026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $350K — Abbey William2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $314K — Abbey William2026-04-22: 1 insider sale, $3.8M — Child Jason2026-04-14: 3 insider sales, $1.5M — Haas Rene A. …2026-03-26: 4 insider sales, $1.3M — Haas Rene A. …2026-03-25: 5 insider sales, $7.0M — Child Jason, Haas Rene A. …2026-03: 9 open-market sales, $8.3M2026-04: 6 open-market sales, $6.0M2026-05: 21 open-market sales, $45.0M2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $7.1M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Child Jason — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bartels Laura Kathleen — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Eaton Charlotte Claire — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Eaton Charlotte Claire — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer Eaton Charlotte Claire — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Child Jason — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Eaton Charlotte Claire — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Grisenthwaite Richard Roy — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 25 days after the tradedirector Abbey William — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 26 days after the tradedirector Child Jason — Sale on 2026-04-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Child Jason — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Haas Rene A. — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Child JasondirectorSale10,400 @ $255.33$2.7M−6.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open163,832Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Bartels Laura KathleenofficerSale11,306 @ $392.70$4.4M−48.2% of holding−20.0%not yet — horizon still open12,135Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Abbey WilliamdirectorSale3,922 @ $415.52$1.6M−16.0% of holding−16.0%not yet — horizon still open20,563Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Abbey WilliamdirectorSale2,644 @ $383.73$1.0M−9.7% of holding−16.0%not yet — horizon still open24,485Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28Abbey WilliamdirectorSale4,200 @ $343.81$1.4M−13.4% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open27,129Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Abbey WilliamdirectorSale2,300 @ $305.82$703K−6.8% of holding+18.6%not yet — horizon still open31,329Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-21Eaton Charlotte ClaireofficerSale5,000 @ $291.08$1.5M−100.0% of holding+23.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Abbey WilliamdirectorSale4,655 @ $287.03$1.3M−12.2% of holding+23.8%not yet — horizon still open33,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Eaton Charlotte ClaireofficerSale4,000 @ $282.77$1.1M−33.9% of holding+23.8%not yet — horizon still open7,805Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21Eaton Charlotte ClaireofficerSale2,805 @ $288.10$808K−35.9% of holding+23.8%not yet — horizon still open5,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Child JasondirectorSale31,920 @ $226.54$7.2M−15.5% of holding+58.1%not yet — horizon still open174,232Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Abbey WilliamdirectorSale5,069 @ $257.18$1.3M−11.7% of holding+58.1%not yet — horizon still open38,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Eaton Charlotte ClaireofficerSale3,100 @ $252.25$782K−20.8% of holding+58.1%not yet — horizon still open11,805Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Collins SpencerofficerSale40,941 @ $215.00$8.8M−100.0% of holding+94.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Abbey WilliamdirectorSale10,887 @ $224.14$2.4M−20.1% of holding+94.9%not yet — horizon still open43,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Grisenthwaite Richard RoyofficerSale24,339 @ $209.15$5.1M−100.0% of holding+94.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorSale7,000 @ $212.55$1.5M−10.9% of holding+88.0%not yet — horizon still open57,394Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale11,197 @ $212.51$2.4M−47.8% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open12,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale10,674 @ $211.46$2.3M−31.3% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open23,434Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale9,815 @ $210.53$2.1M−22.3% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open34,108Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale7,371 @ $213.59$1.6M−60.2% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open4,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale5,353 @ $209.52$1.1M−10.9% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open43,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale4,866 @ $214.41$1.0M−100.0% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale1,849 @ $208.68$386K−3.6% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open49,276Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Collins SpencerofficerSale836 @ $207.77$174K−1.6% of holding+46.4%not yet — horizon still open51,125Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-24Abbey WilliamdirectorSale1,577 @ $221.99$350K−2.7% of holding+31.7%not yet — horizon still open55,817Form 4 · filed 25 days after the trade
2026-04-23Abbey WilliamdirectorSale1,577 @ $199.00$314K−2.8% of holding+44.6%not yet — horizon still open54,240Form 4 · filed 26 days after the trade
2026-04-22Child JasondirectorSale21,280 @ $180.00$3.8M−12.2% of holding+47.3%not yet — horizon still open153,426Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Haas Rene A.directorSale5,646 @ $160.57$907K−2.0% of holding+30.3%not yet — horizon still open277,333Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-14Haas Rene A.directorSale3,483 @ $161.21$561K−1.3% of holding+30.3%not yet — horizon still open273,850Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-14Haas Rene A.directorSale170 @ $163.00$28K−0.1% of holding+30.3%not yet — horizon still open273,680Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-26Haas Rene A.directorSale5,344 @ $160.41$857K−1.9% of holding+28.6%not yet — horizon still open282,979Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Haas Rene A.directorSale1,842 @ $161.47$297K−0.6% of holding+28.6%not yet — horizon still open288,323Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Haas Rene A.directorSale600 @ $162.19$97K−0.2% of holding+28.6%not yet — horizon still open290,165Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Haas Rene A.directorSale200 @ $163.15$33K−0.1% of holding+28.6%not yet — horizon still open290,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Child JasondirectorSale21,280 @ $148.37$3.2M−10.9% of holding+40.8%not yet — horizon still open174,706Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Haas Rene A.directorSale11,749 @ $160.22$1.9M−3.9% of holding+40.8%not yet — horizon still open290,965Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Haas Rene A.directorSale6,196 @ $161.47$1.0M−2.0% of holding+40.8%not yet — horizon still open302,714Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Haas Rene A.directorSale4,830 @ $162.62$785K−1.5% of holding+40.8%not yet — horizon still open308,910Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Haas Rene A.directorSale1,092 @ $163.35$178K−0.3% of holding+40.8%not yet — horizon still open313,740Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Abbey WilliamdirectorAward / grant17,28865,270Form 4
2026-09-09Haas Rene A.directorAward / grant425,000425,000Form 4
2026-08-31Haas Rene A.directorAward / grant64338,666Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerWithheld for tax85612,960Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise81999,571Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise862100,390Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise86212,997Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise81913,816Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise86212,997Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise81913,816Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise81913,816Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise86212,997Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise81913,816Form 4
2026-08-17Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise86212,997Form 4
2026-08-07Sine JeffreydirectorGift9,5720Form 4
2026-05-15Haas Rene A.directorWithheld for tax143,316396,007Form 4
2026-05-15Child JasondirectorWithheld for tax37,950206,152Form 4
2026-05-15Collins SpencerofficerWithheld for tax36,31040,941Form 4
2026-05-15Grisenthwaite Richard RoyofficerWithheld for tax21,30124,339Form 4
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax15,31764,394Form 4
2026-05-15Eaton Charlotte ClaireofficerWithheld for tax3,67214,905Form 4
2026-05-15Bartels Laura KathleenofficerWithheld for tax3,38323,441Form 4
2026-05-15SOHN YOUNGdirectorWithheld for tax4292,396Form 4
2026-05-15Child JasondirectorAward / grant14,842149,268Form 4
2026-05-15Child JasondirectorOption exercise4,670144,598Form 4
2026-05-15Child JasondirectorOption exercise4,647139,951Form 4
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorOption exercise4,70647,982Form 4
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorOption exercise1,74352,688Form 4
2026-05-15SOHN YOUNGdirectorOption exercise2,1410Form 4
2026-05-15SOHN YOUNGdirectorAward / grant1,5311,531Form 4
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorOption exercise1,75154,431Form 4
2026-05-15Sine JeffreydirectorOption exercise2,1410Form 4
2026-05-15Sine JeffreydirectorAward / grant1,5311,531Form 4
2026-05-15DYKSTRA KAREN EdirectorAward / grant1,5315,802Form 4
2026-05-15Bartels Laura KathleenofficerOption exercise2,308101,252Form 4
2026-05-15JACOBS PAUL EdirectorAward / grant1,5311,531Form 4
2026-05-15Abbey WilliamdirectorAward / grant5,56656,182Form 4
2026-05-15Schooler RosemarydirectorOption exercise2,1410Form 4
2026-05-15Schooler RosemarydirectorAward / grant1,5311,531Form 4
2026-05-15Collins SpencerofficerOption exercise3,950138,760Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.