ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.Energy · Coalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.85 · now $26.16 (2026-09-17, +1.2% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARLP has typically landed between $22.88 and $29.90 — a range of −11.5% to +15.7% from the issuance price $25.85.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARLP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.88worst · -11.5%$29.9best · +15.7%
  • now $26.16 (+1.2%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.45 (+2.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.92–$27.98
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.88–$29.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-02−60.5%−60.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−58.3%−58.3%+0.5%
2020-03-04−56.1%−59.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-06+55.9%+0.0%+55.9%
2020-10-20+54.5%+0.0%+54.5%
2020-11-12+50.5%+0.0%+57.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+3.8%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.6%
n=20
Apr
70%
+8.1%
n=20
May
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
80%
+6.2%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
80%
+3.6%
n=20
Nov
35%
−0.7%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$202026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $2K — McDaniel Ronna R.2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $78K — McDaniel Ronna R.2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $78K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $2K↑ buys↓ salesdirector McDaniel Ronna R. — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McDaniel Ronna R. — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18McDaniel Ronna R.directorPurchase70 @ $25.81$2K+2.3% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open3,070Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31McDaniel Ronna R.directorPurchase3,000 @ $26.11$78Kownership Δ n/a+1.9%not yet — horizon still open3,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Whelan Timothy JofficerSale50,000 @ $25.13$1.3M−34.8% of holding+7.9%−21.1%93,850Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Whelan Timothy JofficerSale30,000 @ $26.69$801K−20.3% of holding+6.9%+3.7%117,946Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Whelan Timothy JofficerSale10,000 @ $26.25$263K−6.3% of holding+7.9%+5.2%147,946Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-02Whelan Timothy JofficerSale10,000 @ $28.00$280K−6.0% of holding−1.5%−1.5%157,946Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-02-17WYNNE THOMAS MofficerWithheld for tax15,228908,887Form 4
2026-02-17Tholen KirkofficerWithheld for tax15,200172,657Form 4
2026-02-17MARSHALL CARY PofficerWithheld for tax13,8801,017,728Form 4
2026-02-17Whelan Timothy JofficerWithheld for tax13,110109,951Form 4
2026-02-17Watson Mark AllenofficerWithheld for tax5,71145,277Form 4
2026-02-17CORDLE MEGAN JofficerWithheld for tax2,99248,442Form 4
2026-02-17WYNNE THOMAS MofficerOption exercise34,080924,115Form 4
2026-02-17WYNNE THOMAS MofficerOption exercise34,0800Form 4
2026-02-17MARSHALL CARY PofficerOption exercise30,9451,031,608Form 4
2026-02-17MARSHALL CARY PofficerOption exercise30,9450Form 4
2026-02-17CORDLE MEGAN JofficerOption exercise6,08651,434Form 4
2026-02-17CORDLE MEGAN JofficerOption exercise6,0860Form 4
2026-02-17Whelan Timothy JofficerOption exercise29,211123,061Form 4
2026-02-17Whelan Timothy JofficerOption exercise29,2110Form 4
2026-02-17Tholen KirkofficerOption exercise34,080187,857Form 4
2026-02-17Tholen KirkofficerOption exercise34,0800Form 4
2026-02-17Watson Mark AllenofficerOption exercise12,31750,988Form 4
2026-02-17Watson Mark AllenofficerOption exercise12,3170Form 4
2026-02-17MARSHALL CARY PofficerOption exercise30,9451,031,608Form 4
2026-02-17MARSHALL CARY PofficerOption exercise30,9450Form 4
2026-02-17CORDLE MEGAN JofficerOption exercise6,08651,434Form 4
2026-02-17Watson Mark AllenofficerOption exercise12,3170Form 4
2026-02-17CORDLE MEGAN JofficerOption exercise6,0860Form 4
2026-02-17Watson Mark AllenofficerOption exercise12,31750,988Form 4
2026-02-17WYNNE THOMAS MofficerOption exercise34,0800Form 4
2026-02-17Whelan Timothy JofficerOption exercise29,211123,061Form 4
2026-02-17Whelan Timothy JofficerOption exercise29,2110Form 4
2026-02-17WYNNE THOMAS MofficerOption exercise34,080924,115Form 4
2026-02-17Tholen KirkofficerOption exercise34,0800Form 4
2026-02-17Tholen KirkofficerOption exercise34,080187,857Form 4
2026-01-27MARSHALL CARY PofficerAward / grant30,94530,945Form 4
2026-01-27CORDLE MEGAN JofficerAward / grant6,0866,086Form 4
2026-01-27Tholen KirkofficerAward / grant34,08034,080Form 4
2026-01-27WYNNE THOMAS MofficerAward / grant34,08034,080Form 4
2026-01-27Watson Mark AllenofficerAward / grant12,31712,317Form 4
2026-01-27Whelan Timothy JofficerAward / grant29,21129,211Form 4
2026-01-27MARSHALL CARY PofficerAward / grant30,94530,945Form 4
2026-01-27CORDLE MEGAN JofficerAward / grant6,0866,086Form 4
2026-01-27WYNNE THOMAS MofficerAward / grant34,08034,080Form 4
2026-01-27Whelan Timothy JofficerAward / grant29,21129,211Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.