Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.40 · now $13.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARLO has typically landed between $10.57 and $17.45 — a range of −21.1% to +30.2% from the issuance price $13.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,019 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-08-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.47 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.11–$14.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.57–$17.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,019 windows spanning 2018-08-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −57.0% | −58.9% | +9.6% |
| 2019-01-07 | −56.1% | −56.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-25 | −56.0% | −62.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-08 | +147.5% | +0.0% | +147.5% |
| 2020-07-09 | +126.6% | +0.0% | +145.6% |
| 2020-07-20 | +109.4% | +0.0% | +128.8% |
2,019 overlapping windows · 2018-08-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−5.0%
n=8
Feb
63%
−1.1%
n=8
Mar
25%
−0.6%
n=8
Apr
25%
−0.5%
n=8
May
50%
+9.2%
n=8
Jun
75%
+5.9%
n=8
Jul
75%
+12.3%
n=8
Aug
38%
−5.4%
n=8
Sep
56%
−4.3%
n=9
Oct
38%
−2.8%
n=8
Nov
63%
−1.6%
n=8
Dec
50%
+10.1%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 6,149 @ $12.55 | $77K | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 9,251 @ $16.13 | $149K | −12.2% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,372 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $16.00 | $34K | −2.7% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,623 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 27,297 @ $15.52 | $424K | −5.8% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 442,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 5,010 @ $15.34 | $77K | −6.1% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 13,971 @ $15.01 | $210K | −2.9% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 12,490 @ $15.01 | $187K | −13.1% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 16,507 @ $12.83 | $212K | −3.3% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 483,378 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Sale | 5,260 @ $13.02 | $69K | −5.2% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 65,000 @ $15.70 | $1.0M | −11.5% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 499,885 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $15.19 | $380K | −4.2% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 564,885 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $13.99 | $350K | −4.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 589,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 179,419 @ $13.78 | $2.5M | −22.6% of holding | −1.7% | −17.7% | 614,885 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 153,433 @ $13.78 | $2.1M | −11.6% of holding | −1.7% | −17.7% | 1,168,866 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 25,525 @ $13.78 | $352K | −4.2% of holding | −1.7% | −17.7% | 583,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 9,665 @ $15.11 | $146K | −2.1% of holding | −2.7% | −25.6% | 460,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 27,931 @ $14.93 | $417K | −2.6% of holding | −3.1% | −29.3% | 1,033,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 12,539 @ $14.93 | $187K | −2.6% of holding | −3.1% | −29.3% | 470,635 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 6,966 @ $14.93 | $104K | −1.2% of holding | −3.1% | −29.3% | 558,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 95,326 @ $12.29 | $1.2M | −8.6% of holding | +13.2% | +6.3% | 1,011,288 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 31,407 @ $12.29 | $386K | −5.4% of holding | +13.2% | +6.3% | 552,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 18,085 @ $12.38 | $224K | −1.6% of holding | +17.0% | +12.0% | 1,106,614 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 58,604 @ $12.65 | $741K | −5.8% of holding | +11.1% | +8.8% | 957,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 15,922 @ $12.65 | $201K | −2.9% of holding | +11.1% | +8.8% | 526,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 35,482 @ $12.81 | $455K | −3.5% of holding | +20.6% | +8.0% | 982,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 8,245 @ $12.81 | $106K | −1.5% of holding | +20.6% | +8.0% | 542,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 90,089 @ $13.69 | $1.2M | −8.1% of holding | −8.6% | −11.8% | 1,018,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 55,043 @ $13.69 | $754K | −10.7% of holding | −8.6% | −11.8% | 460,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 18,841 @ $13.69 | $258K | −3.3% of holding | −8.6% | −11.8% | 551,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 257,242 @ $14.28 | $3.7M | −21.5% of holding | −2.2% | −20.8% | 941,586 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 149,521 @ $14.37 | $2.1M | −22.3% of holding | −5.5% | −19.4% | 519,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 18,645 @ $17.86 | $333K | −1.0% of holding | −20.3% | −25.0% | 1,762,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 51,668 @ $17.82 | $921K | −11.0% of holding | −16.8% | −22.5% | 416,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 95,430 @ $16.99 | $1.6M | −5.2% of holding | +11.3% | −17.8% | 1,747,591 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 9,171 @ $16.99 | $156K | −1.4% of holding | +11.3% | −17.8% | 669,376 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-30 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 135,494 @ $16.89 | $2.3M | −22.5% of holding | +10.9% | −15.7% | 467,681 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 81,440 @ $17.04 | $1.4M | −11.9% of holding | +8.8% | −15.5% | 603,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 49,795 @ $18.30 | $911K | −2.9% of holding | −10.0% | −28.7% | 1,664,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 125,000 @ $17.71 | $2.2M | −15.4% of holding | −10.4% | −23.8% | 684,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Aggarwal Prashant | director | Sale | 60,787 @ $16.61 | $1.0M | −85.2% of holding | +4.0% | −37.5% | 10,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 520,557 @ $17.40 | $9.1M | −24.3% of holding | −6.7% | −44.6% | 1,621,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 50,018 @ $17.40 | $870K | −7.0% of holding | −6.7% | −44.6% | 660,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 236,018 @ $17.02 | $4.0M | −9.5% of holding | +2.7% | −34.8% | 2,237,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 113,912 @ $18.56 | $2.1M | −12.3% of holding | +2.7% | −34.8% | 809,615 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 89,526 @ $18.22 | $1.6M | −4.0% of holding | +2.7% | −34.8% | 2,148,473 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 6,081 @ $18.87 | $115K | −0.3% of holding | +2.7% | −34.8% | 2,142,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 14,228 @ $15.97 | $227K | −1.0% of holding | +12.3% | −30.9% | 1,474,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 25,380 @ $16.56 | $420K | −1.7% of holding | +7.4% | −30.2% | 1,461,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 92,247 @ $17.17 | $1.6M | −9.1% of holding | −7.8% | −30.8% | 923,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 113,322 @ $17.22 | $2.0M | −7.3% of holding | −10.0% | −32.7% | 1,439,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 243,302 @ $16.87 | $4.1M | −13.5% of holding | −8.1% | −30.9% | 1,553,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 305,204 @ $16.80 | $5.1M | −14.5% of holding | −6.9% | −30.5% | 1,796,359 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 188,930 @ $16.71 | $3.2M | −8.2% of holding | −4.9% | −29.7% | 2,101,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 372,488 @ $17.14 | $6.4M | −14.0% of holding | −11.2% | −32.7% | 2,290,493 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Carter Miller Jocelyn | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $17.00 | $340K | −16.5% of holding | −6.3% | −28.6% | 101,144 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 76,500 @ $15.42 | $1.2M | −7.0% of holding | −2.3% | −27.3% | 1,015,774 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 46,029 @ $15.73 | $724K | −7.0% of holding | −2.3% | −27.3% | 610,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Sale | 135,183 @ $10.37 | $1.4M | −11.0% of holding | +56.8% | +39.9% | 1,092,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Sale | 91,999 @ $10.37 | $954K | −3.3% of holding | +56.8% | +39.9% | 2,660,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Busse Brian | officer | Sale | 21,367 @ $10.37 | $222K | −3.2% of holding | +56.8% | +39.9% | 656,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Fallon Catriona M | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 113,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Aggarwal Prashant | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 25,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Carter Miller Jocelyn | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 126,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Faison Ralph E | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 411,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Summers Grady | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 234,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rothstein Amy M | director | Award / grant | 14,931 | 100,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 333,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 288,824 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 333,334 | 794,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 288,824 | 1,322,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 608,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 608,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 333,334 | 794,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 288,824 | 1,322,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 22,204 | 483,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Award / grant | 50,118 | 1,061,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Busse Brian | officer | Award / grant | 13,005 | 565,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Busse Brian | officer | Award / grant | 173,000 | 173,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Award / grant | 1,080,000 | 1,080,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 390,000 | 390,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Award / grant | 167,447 | 1,124,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Busse Brian | officer | Award / grant | 57,410 | 584,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 1,015,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 1,015,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 166,666 | 333,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 166,666 | 1,108,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 166,666 | 1,108,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 516,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 569,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Binder Kurtis Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 516,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Busse Brian | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 569,855 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Gift | 563,293 | 1,198,828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 33,175 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 1,780,766 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 33,175 | 1,780,766 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | director | Option exercise | 178,094 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.