ARKO · TickerCove

ARKOArko Corp.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.35 · now $4.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARKO has typically landed between $3.51 and $5.18 — a range of −19.4% to +19.0% from the issuance price $4.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,774 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.35 · 12% of range

$3.76 low$8.64 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 13.8%

−19.4%worst (p90)+19.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ARKO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.35 (+0.0%)
typical $4.37 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $4.07–$4.67
90% range $3.51–$5.18

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,774 windows spanning 2019-07-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-02-14	−49.9%	−49.9%	+1.5%
2025-02-19	−47.6%	−50.7%	+0.0%
2025-02-20	−46.3%	−50.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2019-08-22	+59.2%	−1.1%	+59.2%
2026-01-05	+51.8%	+0.0%	+51.8%
2026-01-07	+49.7%	+0.0%	+50.1%

1,774 overlapping windows · 2019-07-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

+2.0%

n=7

Feb

57%

−4.7%

n=7

Mar

43%

−2.8%

n=7

Apr

71%

+0.4%

n=7

May

57%

+7.2%

n=7

Jun

57%

−0.2%

n=7

Jul

43%

+1.2%

n=7

Aug

38%

−0.9%

n=8

Sep

13%

−1.4%

n=8

Oct

43%

+0.1%

n=7

Nov

57%

+1.2%

n=7

Dec

29%

−4.0%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	Bricks Maury	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $8.50	$85K	−5.8% of holding	−13.6%	not yet — horizon still open	162,841	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10	Bricks Maury	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $8.00	$80K	−5.5% of holding	−3.2%	not yet — horizon still open	172,841	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05	Bricks Maury	officer	Sale	15,000 @ $7.69	$115K	−7.6% of holding	+6.7%	not yet — horizon still open	182,841	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-21	Kotler Arie	director	Sale	12,000 @ $40.00	$480K	−50.0% of holding	+3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	24,177 @ $5.08	$123K	+152.8% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	40,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	7,653 @ $5.06	$39K	+96.4% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	15,589	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $5.05	$13K	+83.6% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	5,490	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	1,836 @ $5.06	$9K	+30.1% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	7,936	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	1,370 @ $5.02	$7K	+1113.8% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	1,493	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	760 @ $5.04	$4K	+40.1% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	2,654	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	610 @ $5.05	$3K	+11.1% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	6,100	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	401 @ $5.03	$2K	+26.9% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	1,894	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	336 @ $5.04	$2K	+12.7% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	2,990	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	197 @ $5.07	$998	+1.3% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	15,786	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	123 @ $5.01	$617	ownership Δ n/a	+19.5%	−26.7%	123	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Jeff Charles Galagher	officer	Purchase	37 @ $5.07	$188	+0.2% of holding	+19.5%	−26.7%	15,823	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Edmiston Sherman III	director	Award / grant	306	120,376	Form 4
2026-07-01	FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z	director	Award / grant	4,748	148,087	Form 4
2026-07-01	Fogel Yona	director	Award / grant	1,026	38,215	Form 4
2026-07-01	HEYER ANDREW R	director	Award / grant	5,821	195,415	Form 4
2026-06-04	Fogel Yona	director	Award / grant	21,262	37,189	Form 4
2026-06-04	FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z	director	Award / grant	21,262	143,339	Form 4
2026-06-04	HEYER ANDREW R	director	Award / grant	21,262	189,594	Form 4
2026-06-04	Edmiston Sherman III	director	Award / grant	21,262	120,070	Form 4
2026-06-04	Shapira Karet Laura	director	Award / grant	21,262	88,631	Form 4
2026-04-01	Edmiston Sherman III	director	Award / grant	437	98,808	Form 4
2026-04-01	HEYER ANDREW R	director	Award / grant	6,118	168,332	Form 4
2026-04-01	Fogel Yona	director	Award / grant	1,081	15,927	Form 4
2026-04-01	FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z	director	Award / grant	5,244	122,077	Form 4
2026-03-30	Kotler Arie	director	Award / grant	324,494	324,494	Form 4
2026-03-05	Kotler Arie	director	Withheld for tax	25,355	12,308,826	Form 4
2026-03-05	Kotler Arie	director	Option exercise	104,124	208,249	Form 4
2026-03-05	Kotler Arie	director	Option exercise	104,124	12,334,181	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bricks Maury	officer	Withheld for tax	10,322	197,841	Form 4
2026-03-03	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Withheld for tax	8,958	243,500	Form 4
2026-03-03	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Option exercise	23,250	46,500	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bricks Maury	officer	Option exercise	23,250	46,500	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bricks Maury	officer	Option exercise	23,250	208,163	Form 4
2026-03-03	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Option exercise	23,250	252,458	Form 4
2026-03-01	Kotler Arie	director	Withheld for tax	16,944	12,230,057	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bricks Maury	officer	Withheld for tax	15,894	184,913	Form 4
2026-03-01	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Withheld for tax	13,774	229,208	Form 4
2026-03-01	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Option exercise	20,419	20,418	Form 4
2026-03-01	Kotler Arie	director	Option exercise	69,581	69,580	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bricks Maury	officer	Option exercise	35,959	200,807	Form 4
2026-03-01	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Option exercise	15,540	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Kotler Arie	director	Option exercise	69,581	12,247,001	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bricks Maury	officer	Option exercise	15,540	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Option exercise	35,959	242,982	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bricks Maury	officer	Option exercise	20,419	20,418	Form 4
2026-02-27	Kotler Arie	director	Withheld for tax	45,525	12,177,420	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Withheld for tax	20,960	207,023	Form 4
2026-02-27	Bricks Maury	officer	Withheld for tax	17,871	164,848	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Award / grant	77,869	77,869	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nuchamovitz Eyal	officer	Award / grant	52,448	227,983	Form 4
2026-02-27	Kotler Arie	director	Award / grant	186,959	12,222,945	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i