Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.23 · now $18.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARIS has typically landed between $14.87 and $22.93 — a range of −18.4% to +25.8% from the issuance price $18.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,765 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.74 (+2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.1–$20.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.87–$22.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-11-20 | −67.7% | −67.7% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-19 | −62.8% | −62.8% | +0.0% |
| 2014-02-19 | −61.5% | −61.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2014-01-14 | +368.6% | +0.0% | +368.6% |
| 2014-01-13 | +283.3% | +0.0% | +283.3% |
| 2014-01-16 | +229.7% | +0.0% | +352.2% |
3,765 overlapping windows · 2005-01-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | Yorktown Energy Partners XI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $27.70 | $27.7M | −100.0% of holding | +23.6% | +94.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Keenan W Howard JR | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $27.70 | $27.7M | −100.0% of holding | +23.6% | +94.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Hunt Jeffrey K. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $28.92 | $289K | −18.2% of holding | +23.4% | +100.6% | 44,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Van Brunt David Dylan | officer | Sale | 32,305 @ $30.15 | $974K | −27.4% of holding | +32.5% | +121.5% | 85,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Tompsett Stephan E | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $30.00 | $600K | −12.5% of holding | +32.5% | +121.5% | 140,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Patterson Nicholas A. | officer | Sale | 8,299 @ $30.60 | $254K | −12.5% of holding | +32.5% | +121.5% | 58,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 2,259 @ $25.05 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | +6.7% | +86.0% | 2,266,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 331,181 @ $25.16 | $8.3M | −12.7% of holding | +8.9% | +87.9% | 2,268,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 31,410 @ $25.04 | $787K | −1.2% of holding | +4.5% | +84.9% | 2,599,740 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 3,641 @ $25.02 | $91K | −0.1% of holding | +5.1% | +89.5% | 2,631,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 316,408 @ $25.28 | $8.0M | −10.7% of holding | +2.7% | +86.6% | 2,634,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 160,539 @ $25.18 | $4.0M | −5.2% of holding | +2.3% | +87.0% | 2,951,199 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 38,739 @ $25.03 | $970K | −1.2% of holding | −0.7% | +82.0% | 3,111,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 15,462 @ $25.00 | $387K | +0.5% of holding | −2.2% | +80.0% | 3,150,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Gable S Corp | other | Sale | 57,731 @ $25.55 | $1.5M | −1.8% of holding | −1.2% | +85.8% | 3,165,939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Delaware Energy LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,223,670 @ $25.81 | $83.2M | −100.0% of holding | −0.9% | +81.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 41 days after the trade |
| 2022-08-01 | Delaware Energy LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,223,670 @ $18.42 | $59.4M | ownership Δ n/a | −9.6% | +20.9% | 3,223,670 | Form 4 · filed 858 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Jeffrey K. | officer | Disposition | 44,827 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Templin Donald C. | director | Disposition | 124,906 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAX | director | Disposition | 55,675 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hernandez Jacinto J | director | Disposition | 36,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 546,299 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 406,693 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 406,693 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 193,713 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 271,188 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Tompsett Stephan E | officer | Disposition | 137,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Tompsett Stephan E | officer | Disposition | 62,022 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Tompsett Stephan E | officer | Disposition | 86,780 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Tompsett Stephan E | officer | Disposition | 28,620 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Brock Amanda M | director | Disposition | 92,107 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 584,270 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 488,474 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 1,064,617 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 488,474 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 1,064,617 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 139,473 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 162,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Zartler William A | director | Disposition | 56,497 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Van Brunt David Dylan | officer | Disposition | 85,656 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Van Brunt David Dylan | officer | Disposition | 26,779 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Van Brunt David Dylan | officer | Disposition | 15,361 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Disposition | 113,329 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Disposition | 15,518 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Patterson Nicholas A. | officer | Disposition | 55,689 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Patterson Nicholas A. | officer | Disposition | 42,374 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Patterson Nicholas A. | officer | Disposition | 4,621 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | COY DEBRA | director | Disposition | 47,983 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Keenan W Howard JR | director | Disposition | 34,485 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Keenan W Howard JR | director | Disposition | 9,304,608 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Keenan W Howard JR | director | Disposition | 9,304,608 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | COLONNETTA JOSEPH | director | Disposition | 39,485 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | COLONNETTA JOSEPH | director | Disposition | 123,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hernandez Jacinto J | director | Disposition | 36,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Jeffrey K. | officer | Disposition | 44,827 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Disposition | 113,329 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Hunt Robert W JR | officer | Disposition | 15,518 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.