Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.50 · now $6.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARI has typically landed between $5.65 and $7.37 — a range of −13.0% to +13.4% from the issuance price $6.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,248 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-09-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.52 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.22–$6.82
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.65–$7.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-24 | −76.3% | −76.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −67.3% | −74.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −66.9% | −74.6% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-24 | +76.0% | +0.0% | +127.9% |
| 2020-05-07 | +52.2% | −13.8% | +52.2% |
| 2020-04-03 | +47.6% | +0.0% | +75.0% |
4,248 overlapping windows · 2009-09-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | SALVATI MICHAEL | director | Sale | 835 @ $6.86 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SALVATI MICHAEL | director | Sale | 125 @ $6.86 | $858 | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 162,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | director | Sale | 4,574 @ $10.93 | $50K | −15.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Sale | 52,072 @ $10.16 | $529K | −18.5% of holding | −0.4% | +1.1% | 229,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Sale | 52,073 @ $10.78 | $561K | −15.6% of holding | −3.7% | −0.2% | 281,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Sale | 52,074 @ $9.83 | $512K | −13.5% of holding | −1.0% | −3.9% | 333,854 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | BIDERMAN MARK C | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $9.48 | $95K | −14.1% of holding | −2.5% | −12.4% | 60,787 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Sale | 52,074 @ $9.99 | $520K | −11.9% of holding | −9.4% | −5.9% | 385,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $9.96 | $110K | −53.3% of holding | −0.3% | +1.0% | 9,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-28 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | director | Sale | 11,400 @ $10.21 | $116K | −35.6% of holding | −4.0% | −15.0% | 20,624 | Form 4 · filed 282 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Romando Brenna Haysom | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 90,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SALVATI MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 162,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kasdin Robert A | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 114,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Prince Scott | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 60,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Carlton Pamela G | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 49,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 29,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BIDERMAN MARK C | director | Award / grant | 9,587 | 70,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Withheld for tax | 61,485 | 277,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Mironova Anastasia G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,385 | 75,281 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Award / grant | 109,452 | 339,161 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Mironova Anastasia G. | officer | Award / grant | 34,825 | 81,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Mironova Anastasia G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 852 | 46,841 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | SALVATI MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 152,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | director | Award / grant | 10,438 | 19,786 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Prince Scott | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 51,316 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Carlton Pamela G | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 39,687 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | BIDERMAN MARK C | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 70,787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Kasdin Robert A | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 105,041 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Romando Brenna Haysom | director | Award / grant | 10,162 | 60,670 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Withheld for tax | 62,190 | 438,002 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Mironova Anastasia G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,549 | 47,693 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | director | Award / grant | 84,900 | 500,192 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Mironova Anastasia G. | officer | Award / grant | 22,214 | 51,242 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.