ARHSArhaus, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.20 · now $7.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARHS has typically landed between $5.38 and $9.43 — a range of −25.3% to +30.9% from the issuance price $7.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,199 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARHS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.38worst · -25.3%$9.43best · +30.9%
  • now $7.2 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.1 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.16–$8.03
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.38–$9.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,199 windows spanning 2021-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-03-03−44.7%−44.7%+0.0%
2023-03-06−43.6%−43.6%+0.0%
2023-02-23−43.1%−43.1%+1.5%
3 best
2022-07-15+78.5%+0.0%+78.5%
2022-07-27+75.6%+0.0%+81.2%
2022-07-26+73.8%+0.0%+85.0%

1,199 overlapping windows · 2021-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+6.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
−10.1%
n=5
Mar
40%
−3.5%
n=5
Apr
20%
−7.4%
n=5
May
40%
+4.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
+7.3%
n=5
Jul
60%
+2.2%
n=5
Aug
60%
+14.8%
n=5
Sep
0%
−10.1%
n=5
Oct
25%
−6.5%
n=4
Nov
100%
+11.0%
n=4
Dec
80%
+13.6%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$12$62026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $30K — Doody Alton F III2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $30K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Doody Alton F III — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Doody Alton F IIIdirectorSale3,500 @ $8.47$30K−3.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open87,113Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Keyes Richard PatrickdirectorAward / grant17,08917,089Form 4
2026-07-07Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise22,9600Form 4
2026-07-07Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise22,96097,803Form 4
2026-05-15ADAMS ALBERT TdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15Doody Alton F IIIdirectorOption exercise83290,613Form 4
2026-05-15Doody Alton F IIIdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15Doody Alton F IIIdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15ADAMS ALBERT TdirectorOption exercise16,11081,511Form 4
2026-05-15ADAMS ALBERT TdirectorOption exercise83282,343Form 4
2026-05-15ADAMS ALBERT TdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15LEWIS GARY LdirectorOption exercise16,11056,511Form 4
2026-05-15LEWIS GARY LdirectorOption exercise83257,343Form 4
2026-05-15LEWIS GARY LdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15LEWIS GARY LdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15Hyde AndreadirectorOption exercise16,11056,511Form 4
2026-05-15Hyde AndreadirectorOption exercise83257,343Form 4
2026-05-15Hyde AndreadirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15Hyde AndreadirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise16,11074,011Form 4
2026-05-15Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise83274,843Form 4
2026-05-15Beargie WilliamdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15KYEES JOHN EdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15KYEES JOHN EdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15KYEES JOHN EdirectorOption exercise16,11056,511Form 4
2026-05-15KYEES JOHN EdirectorOption exercise83257,343Form 4
2026-05-15Burgdoerfer Stuart BdirectorOption exercise16,11023,064Form 4
2026-05-15Burgdoerfer Stuart BdirectorOption exercise83223,896Form 4
2026-05-15Burgdoerfer Stuart BdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15Burgdoerfer Stuart BdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15DePree AlexisdirectorOption exercise16,11037,380Form 4
2026-05-15DePree AlexisdirectorOption exercise83238,212Form 4
2026-05-15DePree AlexisdirectorOption exercise8320Form 4
2026-05-15DePree AlexisdirectorOption exercise16,1100Form 4
2026-05-15Desai SamirdirectorOption exercise75615,383Form 4
2026-05-15Desai SamirdirectorOption exercise14,6270Form 4
2026-05-15Desai SamirdirectorOption exercise14,62714,627Form 4
2026-05-15Desai SamirdirectorOption exercise7560Form 4
2026-05-15Doody Alton F IIIdirectorOption exercise16,11089,781Form 4
2026-05-14Hyde AndreadirectorAward / grant22,96022,960Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.