ARESAres Management CorporationFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $124.21 · now $124.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARES has typically landed between $102.12 and $144.94 — a range of −17.8% to +16.7% from the issuance price $124.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,091 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($124.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARES has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $124.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$102.12worst · -17.8%$144.94best · +16.7%
  • now $124.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $127.42 (+2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $119.62$135.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.12$144.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,091 windows spanning 2014-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−42.6%−42.6%+0.0%
2020-02-21−42.4%−42.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−37.0%−37.0%+0.0%
3 best
2016-06-28+40.7%+0.0%+41.6%
2016-06-27+39.3%−0.7%+40.5%
2022-10-12+37.9%−0.9%+37.9%

3,091 overlapping windows · 2014-05-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.5B
market cap
$2.38
EPS (TTM)
53.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$6.5B
'20'25
Net income$527M
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr3.49
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $124.21$24.91$229.08
  • DCF (intrinsic)$87.99
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$38.99
  • Analyst target · range $128.00$215.00$157.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$124.21

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+5.1%
n=12
Feb
67%
+1.5%
n=12
Mar
42%
−0.7%
n=12
Apr
67%
+0.4%
n=12
May
75%
+4.5%
n=12
Jun
46%
−0.3%
n=13
Jul
100%
+9.5%
n=13
Aug
46%
+0.9%
n=13
Sep
46%
−2.6%
n=13
Oct
42%
+0.9%
n=12
Nov
83%
+4.5%
n=12
Dec
75%
+1.1%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$186$942026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Olian Judy D.2026-02-06: 1 insider purchase, $1.3M — BHUTANI ASHISH2026-02-04: 7 insider sales, $529K — Sagati Aghili Naseem …2026-01-22: 3 insider sales, $299K — Sagati Aghili Naseem …2025-12-01: 6 insider sales, $8.8M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-11-28: 3 insider sales, $15.4M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-11-26: 4 insider sales, $21.0M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-11-25: 4 insider sales, $28.4M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $16.9M — Arougheti Michael J2025-10-01: 5 insider sales, $3.3M — Sagati Aghili Naseem …2025-09-10: 8 insider sales, $26.7M — RESSLER ANTONY P, Sagati Aghili Naseem …2025-09-09: 2 insider sales, $17.8M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-09-08: 3 insider sales, $29.9M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-09-05: 6 insider sales, $31.3M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-09-04: 4 insider sales, $28.9M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-09-03: 5 insider sales, $22.4M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-09-02: 7 insider sales, $31.8M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-29: 3 insider sales, $18.1M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-28: 3 insider sales, $19.6M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-27: 3 insider sales, $30.9M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-26: 3 insider sales, $35.1M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-25: 5 insider sales, $20.0M — RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-22: 12 insider sales, $38.3M — RESSLER ANTONY P, Arougheti Michael J …2025-08-21: 4 insider sales, $22.6M — RESSLER ANTONY P, Arougheti Michael J …2025-08-20: 8 insider sales, $34.9M — Arougheti Michael J, RESSLER ANTONY P …2025-08-19: 10 insider sales, $24.9M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-08-18: 4 insider sales, $16.2M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-08-15: 4 insider sales, $10.6M — Arougheti Michael J …2025-08: 59 open-market sales, $271.4M2025-09: 35 open-market sales, $188.8M2025-10: 5 open-market sales, $3.3M2025-11: 12 open-market sales, $81.8M2025-12: 6 open-market sales, $8.8M2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $299K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $1.3M2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $529K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Olian Judy D. — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BHUTANI ASHISH — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sagati Aghili Naseem — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same daydirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RESSLER ANTONY P — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same daydirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Arougheti Michael J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-20Olian Judy D.directorPurchase480 @ $124.43$60K+1.6% of holding−7.2%+5.8%29,734Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06BHUTANI ASHISHdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $126.61$1.3M+41.5% of holding−14.7%−4.5%34,071Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale1,200 @ $137.72$165K−0.4% of holding−17.8%−9.5%326,889Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale1,110 @ $135.28$150K−0.3% of holding−17.8%−9.5%328,700Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale611 @ $136.74$84K−0.2% of holding−17.8%−9.5%328,089Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale300 @ $134.00$40K−0.1% of holding−17.8%−9.5%329,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale300 @ $128.98$39K−0.1% of holding−17.8%−9.5%330,210Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale300 @ $126.68$38K−0.1% of holding−17.8%−9.5%330,510Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale100 @ $131.61$13K−0.0% of holding−17.8%−9.5%330,110Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-22Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale1,249 @ $161.36$202K−0.5% of holding−28.1%−27.6%255,271Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale400 @ $162.28$65K−0.2% of holding−28.1%−27.6%254,871Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale200 @ $163.94$33K−0.1% of holding−28.1%−27.6%254,671Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale31,266 @ $157.61$4.9M−67.6% of holding+1.5%−32.8%14,976Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale14,067 @ $158.08$2.2M−93.9% of holding+1.5%−32.8%909Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale5,400 @ $155.62$840K−10.5% of holding+1.5%−32.8%46,242Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale2,737 @ $154.35$422K−5.0% of holding+1.5%−32.8%51,642Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale1,878 @ $153.50$288K−3.3% of holding+1.5%−32.8%54,379Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale909 @ $158.95$144K−100.0% of holding+1.5%−32.8%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-28Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale53,452 @ $156.66$8.4M−48.7% of holding+3.9%−28.3%56,257Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-28Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale31,726 @ $155.81$4.9M−22.4% of holding+3.9%−28.3%109,709Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-28Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale13,495 @ $154.95$2.1M−8.7% of holding+3.9%−28.3%141,435Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale114,469 @ $154.60$17.7M−42.4% of holding+8.7%−27.2%155,697Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale19,332 @ $153.87$3.0M−6.7% of holding+8.7%−27.2%270,166Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale1,499 @ $152.83$229K−0.5% of holding+8.7%−27.2%289,498Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale767 @ $155.16$119K−0.5% of holding+8.7%−27.2%154,930Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale116,937 @ $152.78$17.9M−25.6% of holding+8.5%−26.9%339,751Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale48,754 @ $153.29$7.5M−14.3% of holding+8.5%−26.9%290,997Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale14,695 @ $151.66$2.2M−3.1% of holding+8.5%−26.9%456,688Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale5,811 @ $150.53$875K−1.2% of holding+8.5%−26.9%471,383Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24Arougheti Michael JdirectorSale112,806 @ $150.15$16.9M−19.1% of holding+9.8%−27.8%477,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale9,908 @ $156.48$1.6M−3.7% of holding−6.1%−30.9%258,300Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale4,971 @ $154.34$767K−1.8% of holding−6.1%−30.9%271,426Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale3,218 @ $155.64$501K−1.2% of holding−6.1%−30.9%268,208Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale2,803 @ $157.36$441K−1.1% of holding−6.1%−30.9%255,497Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale100 @ $158.12$16K−0.0% of holding−6.1%−30.9%255,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale64,578 @ $178.49$11.5M−82.4% of holding−20.4%−48.1%13,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale49,239 @ $177.79$8.8M−38.6% of holding−20.4%−48.1%78,398Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale13,820 @ $179.44$2.5M−100.0% of holding−20.4%−48.1%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale13,053 @ $178.58$2.3M−4.5% of holding−20.4%−48.1%277,529Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale6,515 @ $177.95$1.2M−2.2% of holding−20.4%−48.1%290,582Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale1,200 @ $176.15$211K−0.9% of holding−20.4%−48.1%127,637Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale1,132 @ $179.42$203K−0.4% of holding−20.4%−48.1%276,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerSale300 @ $176.23$53K−0.1% of holding−20.4%−48.1%297,097Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-09RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale83,754 @ $175.38$14.7M−36.4% of holding−17.7%−44.7%146,483Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-09RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale17,646 @ $176.27$3.1M−12.0% of holding−17.7%−44.7%128,837Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-08RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale111,974 @ $175.51$19.7M−28.0% of holding−18.6%−42.5%288,604Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale54,506 @ $176.25$9.6M−18.9% of holding−18.6%−42.5%234,098Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale3,861 @ $177.08$684K−1.6% of holding−18.6%−42.5%230,237Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale95,204 @ $177.30$16.9M−18.9% of holding−18.9%−43.2%409,188Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale55,570 @ $176.61$9.8M−9.9% of holding−18.9%−43.2%504,392Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale17,400 @ $175.67$3.1M−3.0% of holding−18.9%−43.2%559,962Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale3,764 @ $180.31$679K−0.9% of holding−18.9%−43.2%402,424Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale3,000 @ $178.88$537K−0.7% of holding−18.9%−43.2%406,188Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale1,846 @ $181.20$334K−0.5% of holding−18.9%−43.2%400,578Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-04RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale97,284 @ $179.89$17.5M−14.4% of holding−18.2%−42.3%577,362Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale34,709 @ $177.64$6.2M−4.8% of holding−18.2%−42.3%692,867Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale18,221 @ $178.63$3.3M−2.6% of holding−18.2%−42.3%674,646Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale11,442 @ $176.90$2.0M−1.5% of holding−18.2%−42.3%727,576Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale48,781 @ $175.55$8.6M−5.6% of holding−18.5%−39.4%816,736Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorSale38,867 @ $176.53$6.9M−4.8% of holding−18.5%−39.4%777,869Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Jacobson BlairofficerGift8,0001,095,221Form 4
2026-07-30BHUTANI ASHISHdirectorAward / grant1,72835,799Form 4
2026-07-30Lynton MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,72834,196Form 4
2026-07-30Naughton EileendirectorAward / grant1,7288,586Form 4
2026-07-30Joubert Paul G.directorAward / grant1,72844,196Form 4
2026-07-30Olian Judy D.directorAward / grant1,72831,462Form 4
2026-07-30BUSH ANTOINETTE COOKdirectorAward / grant1,72824,168Form 4
2026-07-01Phillips JarrodofficerWithheld for tax2,583325,226Form 4
2026-06-30deVeer R. KippdirectorWithheld for tax82,9571,165,599Form 4
2026-06-30Arougheti Michael JdirectorWithheld for tax82,9571,364,548Form 4
2026-06-03Jacobson BlairofficerGift8,0001,103,221Form 4
2026-01-31Arougheti Michael JdirectorWithheld for tax152,4951,447,505Form 4
2026-01-31deVeer R. KippdirectorWithheld for tax101,4441,248,556Form 4
2026-01-31Jacobson BlairofficerWithheld for tax47,0001,111,221Form 4
2026-01-31Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerWithheld for tax23,861330,810Form 4
2026-01-31Phillips JarrodofficerWithheld for tax15,568327,809Form 4
2026-01-31Jacobson BlairofficerAward / grant300,0001,158,221Form 4
2026-01-31Arougheti Michael JdirectorAward / grant200,0001,600,000Form 4
2026-01-31Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerAward / grant100,000354,671Form 4
2026-01-31Phillips JarrodofficerAward / grant100,000343,377Form 4
2026-01-31deVeer R. KippdirectorAward / grant200,0001,350,000Form 4
2026-01-20Jacobson BlairofficerWithheld for tax2,093858,221Form 4
2026-01-20Phillips JarrodofficerWithheld for tax1,683243,377Form 4
2026-01-20Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerWithheld for tax1,089256,520Form 4
2026-01-20Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerAward / grant2,712257,609Form 4
2026-01-20Phillips JarrodofficerAward / grant2,712245,060Form 4
2025-12-18Arougheti Michael JdirectorGift425,0006,826,596Form 4
2025-12-16Rosenthal BennettdirectorGift15,0001,061,052Form 4
2025-12-16KAPLAN DAVID BdirectorGift40,000985,052Form 4
2025-12-09Sagati Aghili NaseemofficerGift500254,897Form 4
2025-11-14Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,000590,000Form 4
2025-11-14Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,0007,251,596Form 4
2025-11-14Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,0007,251,596Form 4
2025-08-15Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,000590,000Form 4
2025-08-15Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,0007,841,596Form 4
2025-08-15Arougheti Michael JdirectorConversion590,0007,841,596Form 4
2025-08-12RESSLER ANTONY PdirectorGift700,0004,235,625Form 4
2025-08-11Jacobson BlairofficerGift8,000860,314Form 4
2025-07-31Lynton MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,16632,468Form 4
2025-07-31Olian Judy D.directorAward / grant1,16629,254Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-04-142026-03-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-10-09$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.