Issued 2026-09-16 at $124.21 · now $124.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARES has typically landed between $102.12 and $144.94 — a range of −17.8% to +16.7% from the issuance price $124.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,091 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($124.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARES has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $124.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $124.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $127.42 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $119.62–$135.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.12–$144.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −42.4% | −42.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −37.0% | −37.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-06-28 | +40.7% | +0.0% | +41.6% |
| 2016-06-27 | +39.3% | −0.7% | +40.5% |
| 2022-10-12 | +37.9% | −0.9% | +37.9% |
3,091 overlapping windows · 2014-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$87.99
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$38.99
- Analyst target · range $128.00–$215.00$157.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$124.21
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Olian Judy D. | director | Purchase | 480 @ $124.43 | $60K | +1.6% of holding | −7.2% | +5.8% | 29,734 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | BHUTANI ASHISH | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $126.61 | $1.3M | +41.5% of holding | −14.7% | −4.5% | 34,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $137.72 | $165K | −0.4% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 326,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 1,110 @ $135.28 | $150K | −0.3% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 328,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 611 @ $136.74 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 328,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 300 @ $134.00 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 329,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 300 @ $128.98 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 330,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 300 @ $126.68 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 330,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 100 @ $131.61 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −17.8% | −9.5% | 330,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 1,249 @ $161.36 | $202K | −0.5% of holding | −28.1% | −27.6% | 255,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 400 @ $162.28 | $65K | −0.2% of holding | −28.1% | −27.6% | 254,871 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 200 @ $163.94 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | −28.1% | −27.6% | 254,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 31,266 @ $157.61 | $4.9M | −67.6% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 14,976 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 14,067 @ $158.08 | $2.2M | −93.9% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 5,400 @ $155.62 | $840K | −10.5% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 46,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 2,737 @ $154.35 | $422K | −5.0% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 51,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 1,878 @ $153.50 | $288K | −3.3% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 54,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 909 @ $158.95 | $144K | −100.0% of holding | +1.5% | −32.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 53,452 @ $156.66 | $8.4M | −48.7% of holding | +3.9% | −28.3% | 56,257 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 31,726 @ $155.81 | $4.9M | −22.4% of holding | +3.9% | −28.3% | 109,709 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 13,495 @ $154.95 | $2.1M | −8.7% of holding | +3.9% | −28.3% | 141,435 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 114,469 @ $154.60 | $17.7M | −42.4% of holding | +8.7% | −27.2% | 155,697 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 19,332 @ $153.87 | $3.0M | −6.7% of holding | +8.7% | −27.2% | 270,166 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 1,499 @ $152.83 | $229K | −0.5% of holding | +8.7% | −27.2% | 289,498 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 767 @ $155.16 | $119K | −0.5% of holding | +8.7% | −27.2% | 154,930 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 116,937 @ $152.78 | $17.9M | −25.6% of holding | +8.5% | −26.9% | 339,751 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 48,754 @ $153.29 | $7.5M | −14.3% of holding | +8.5% | −26.9% | 290,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 14,695 @ $151.66 | $2.2M | −3.1% of holding | +8.5% | −26.9% | 456,688 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 5,811 @ $150.53 | $875K | −1.2% of holding | +8.5% | −26.9% | 471,383 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Sale | 112,806 @ $150.15 | $16.9M | −19.1% of holding | +9.8% | −27.8% | 477,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 9,908 @ $156.48 | $1.6M | −3.7% of holding | −6.1% | −30.9% | 258,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 4,971 @ $154.34 | $767K | −1.8% of holding | −6.1% | −30.9% | 271,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 3,218 @ $155.64 | $501K | −1.2% of holding | −6.1% | −30.9% | 268,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 2,803 @ $157.36 | $441K | −1.1% of holding | −6.1% | −30.9% | 255,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 100 @ $158.12 | $16K | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −30.9% | 255,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 64,578 @ $178.49 | $11.5M | −82.4% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 13,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 49,239 @ $177.79 | $8.8M | −38.6% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 78,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 13,820 @ $179.44 | $2.5M | −100.0% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 13,053 @ $178.58 | $2.3M | −4.5% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 277,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 6,515 @ $177.95 | $1.2M | −2.2% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 290,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $176.15 | $211K | −0.9% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 127,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 1,132 @ $179.42 | $203K | −0.4% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 276,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Sale | 300 @ $176.23 | $53K | −0.1% of holding | −20.4% | −48.1% | 297,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 83,754 @ $175.38 | $14.7M | −36.4% of holding | −17.7% | −44.7% | 146,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 17,646 @ $176.27 | $3.1M | −12.0% of holding | −17.7% | −44.7% | 128,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-08 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 111,974 @ $175.51 | $19.7M | −28.0% of holding | −18.6% | −42.5% | 288,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 54,506 @ $176.25 | $9.6M | −18.9% of holding | −18.6% | −42.5% | 234,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 3,861 @ $177.08 | $684K | −1.6% of holding | −18.6% | −42.5% | 230,237 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 95,204 @ $177.30 | $16.9M | −18.9% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 409,188 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 55,570 @ $176.61 | $9.8M | −9.9% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 504,392 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 17,400 @ $175.67 | $3.1M | −3.0% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 559,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 3,764 @ $180.31 | $679K | −0.9% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 402,424 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $178.88 | $537K | −0.7% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 406,188 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 1,846 @ $181.20 | $334K | −0.5% of holding | −18.9% | −43.2% | 400,578 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 97,284 @ $179.89 | $17.5M | −14.4% of holding | −18.2% | −42.3% | 577,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 34,709 @ $177.64 | $6.2M | −4.8% of holding | −18.2% | −42.3% | 692,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 18,221 @ $178.63 | $3.3M | −2.6% of holding | −18.2% | −42.3% | 674,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 11,442 @ $176.90 | $2.0M | −1.5% of holding | −18.2% | −42.3% | 727,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 48,781 @ $175.55 | $8.6M | −5.6% of holding | −18.5% | −39.4% | 816,736 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Sale | 38,867 @ $176.53 | $6.9M | −4.8% of holding | −18.5% | −39.4% | 777,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Gift | 8,000 | 1,095,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | BHUTANI ASHISH | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 35,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Lynton Michael | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 34,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Naughton Eileen | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 8,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Joubert Paul G. | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 44,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Olian Judy D. | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 31,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | BUSH ANTOINETTE COOK | director | Award / grant | 1,728 | 24,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Phillips Jarrod | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,583 | 325,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | deVeer R. Kipp | director | Withheld for tax | 82,957 | 1,165,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Withheld for tax | 82,957 | 1,364,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Gift | 8,000 | 1,103,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Withheld for tax | 152,495 | 1,447,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | deVeer R. Kipp | director | Withheld for tax | 101,444 | 1,248,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,000 | 1,111,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,861 | 330,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Phillips Jarrod | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,568 | 327,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,158,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 354,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Phillips Jarrod | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 343,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | deVeer R. Kipp | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,093 | 858,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Phillips Jarrod | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,683 | 243,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,089 | 256,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Award / grant | 2,712 | 257,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Phillips Jarrod | officer | Award / grant | 2,712 | 245,060 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Gift | 425,000 | 6,826,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Rosenthal Bennett | director | Gift | 15,000 | 1,061,052 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | KAPLAN DAVID B | director | Gift | 40,000 | 985,052 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Sagati Aghili Naseem | officer | Gift | 500 | 254,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 590,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 7,251,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 7,251,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 590,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 7,841,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Conversion | 590,000 | 7,841,596 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | RESSLER ANTONY P | director | Gift | 700,000 | 4,235,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Jacobson Blair | officer | Gift | 8,000 | 860,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Lynton Michael | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 32,468 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Olian Judy D. | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 29,254 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2026-04-14 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-10-09 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.