Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.52 · now $53.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARE has typically landed between $45.07 and $60.58 — a range of −15.8% to +13.2% from the issuance price $53.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $53.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.76 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $49.55–$55.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.07–$60.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-30 | −49.8% | −49.8% | +8.0% |
| 2008-11-04 | −48.7% | −53.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-31 | −47.8% | −51.7% | +3.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +82.3% | +0.0% | +82.3% |
| 2008-12-04 | +80.4% | +0.0% | +80.4% |
| 2008-12-02 | +64.0% | +0.0% | +68.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$8.9B
market cap
$-6.27
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$3.0B
'20'25
Net income−$1.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-48.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-9.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.82
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$224.07
- Analyst target · range $43.00–$60.00$52.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$53.52
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
37%
−2.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
−0.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
−0.1%
n=19
May
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
95%
+5.5%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
50%
−2.4%
n=18
Nov
56%
−0.7%
n=18
Dec
72%
+5.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fukuzaki-Carlson Kristina | officer | Sale | 16,810 @ $50.51 | $849K | −30.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $49.68 | $248K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 597,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Gavinet Andres | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $50.93 | $509K | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 102,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $46.28 | $231K | +0.9% of holding | +16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Binda Marc E | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $54.00 | $108K | −1.1% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 3,989 @ $45.99 | $183K | +0.7% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 3,511 @ $46.74 | $164K | +0.6% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 587,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 3,832 @ $42.76 | $164K | +0.7% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 578,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 2,062 @ $41.89 | $86K | +0.4% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 1,606 @ $43.70 | $70K | +0.3% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 580,224 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $41.02 | $410K | +1.8% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 572,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Thomas Gregory Calvin | officer | Purchase | 3,500 @ $41.00 | $144K | +11.9% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,024 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Kuhn Hallie E. | officer | Sale | 536 @ $48.20 | $26K | −1.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Gossett Bret E. | officer | Sale | 4,702 @ $53.55 | $252K | −10.1% of holding | −6.7% | −14.5% | 41,793 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 17,300 @ $53.74 | $930K | +3.2% of holding | −2.3% | −16.3% | 555,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MARCUS JOEL S | director | Purchase | 7,700 @ $54.31 | $418K | +1.4% of holding | −2.3% | −16.3% | 562,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Alsbrook Madeleine Thorp | officer | Sale | 3,486 @ $46.15 | $161K | −13.0% of holding | +22.9% | +1.1% | 23,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | McGrath Sheila K. | director | Purchase | 3,100 @ $45.60 | $141K | +58.6% of holding | +17.3% | +9.4% | 8,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $102.26 | $1.0M | −4.2% of holding | +3.0% | −26.5% | 228,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Alsbrook Madeleine Thorp | officer | Sale | 4,360 @ $102.34 | $446K | −16.5% of holding | +3.0% | −26.5% | 22,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Ryan Daniel J | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $103.31 | $1.0M | −4.8% of holding | −0.3% | −27.6% | 198,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Gavinet Andres | officer | Sale | 9,999 @ $103.25 | $1.0M | −11.2% of holding | −0.3% | −27.6% | 79,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Gavinet Andres | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $105.32 | $1.1M | −10.0% of holding | −2.0% | −28.7% | 89,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Kass Hunter | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $106.13 | $531K | −3.8% of holding | −6.1% | −30.1% | 126,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
258 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,068 | 371,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,068 | 373,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hash Steve | director | Award / grant | 340 | 30,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Woronoff Michael A | director | Award / grant | 415 | 28,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | McGrath Sheila K. | director | Award / grant | 128 | 12,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | KLEIN RICHARD HUNTER | director | Award / grant | 111 | 21,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Cain James P | director | Award / grant | 144 | 13,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,068 | 374,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Woronoff Michael A | director | Award / grant | 804 | 28,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,067 | 375,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,069 | 376,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | KLEIN RICHARD HUNTER | director | Award / grant | 112 | 21,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Woronoff Michael A | director | Award / grant | 407 | 27,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McGrath Sheila K. | director | Award / grant | 129 | 12,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Hash Steve | director | Award / grant | 343 | 30,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Cain James P | director | Award / grant | 145 | 13,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Moglia Peter M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,067 | 377,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Woronoff Michael A | director | Award / grant | 915 | 26,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Gavinet Andres | officer | Award / grant | 32,314 | 112,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hakman Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 32,314 | 99,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dean Gary D. | officer | Award / grant | 16,157 | 68,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Clem Jackie B. | officer | Award / grant | 21,543 | 73,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Alsbrook Madeleine Thorp | officer | Award / grant | 16,157 | 38,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lee Orraparn C. | officer | Award / grant | 21,543 | 68,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fukuzaki-Carlson Kristina | officer | Award / grant | 16,157 | 55,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Boss Michael E. | officer | Award / grant | 21,543 | 52,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mitchell Joshua J. | officer | Award / grant | 12,926 | 25,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Stevens Blake L. | officer | Award / grant | 10,772 | 29,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Foger Jenna R. | officer | Award / grant | 21,543 | 68,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kuhn Hallie E. | officer | Award / grant | 21,543 | 48,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Gossett Bret E. | officer | Award / grant | 11,849 | 52,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nelson Jesse J. | officer | Award / grant | 43,085 | 98,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Thomas Gregory Calvin | officer | Award / grant | 10,772 | 29,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Hakman Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,029 | 66,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Nelson Jesse J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,897 | 55,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cole John Hart | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,289 | 108,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fukuzaki-Carlson Kristina | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,179 | 39,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Clem Jackie B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,103 | 51,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Alsbrook Madeleine Thorp | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,087 | 22,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Lee Orraparn C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,024 | 47,225 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-06 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-10 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-22 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.