Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.39 · now $3.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARDX has typically landed between $2.60 and $4.80 — a range of −23.2% to +41.5% from the issuance price $3.39.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,057 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARDX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.39 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.41 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.99–$3.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.6–$4.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,057 windows spanning 2014-06-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-05-09 | −67.2% | −67.2% | +0.0% |
| 2017-04-27 | −67.0% | −67.0% | +0.3% |
| 2017-05-01 | −66.2% | −67.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-08-12 | +179.1% | −4.4% | +179.1% |
| 2019-08-08 | +158.1% | −8.1% | +158.1% |
| 2019-08-09 | +154.4% | −5.7% | +164.9% |
3,057 overlapping windows · 2014-06-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+5.6%
n=12
Feb
25%
−4.2%
n=12
Mar
25%
+0.1%
n=12
Apr
58%
+0.7%
n=12
May
33%
−12.5%
n=12
Jun
50%
+2.6%
n=12
Jul
54%
+2.0%
n=13
Aug
62%
+8.1%
n=13
Sep
46%
+4.5%
n=13
Oct
33%
+1.4%
n=12
Nov
67%
+14.3%
n=12
Dec
42%
+1.5%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 19,178 @ $3.86 | $74K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,619,792 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Bishop John E | officer | Sale | 17,281 @ $3.86 | $67K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 319,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 15,976 @ $3.86 | $62K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,647,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 15,009 @ $3.86 | $58K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,663,357 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Brady James Parker | officer | Sale | 13,160 @ $3.86 | $51K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 245,930 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 8,411 @ $3.86 | $32K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,638,970 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 3,486 @ $3.86 | $13K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 374,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 3,389 @ $3.86 | $13K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 411,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 3,104 @ $3.86 | $12K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 354,314 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 3,089 @ $3.86 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 371,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Reilly Joseph James | officer | Sale | 2,872 @ $3.86 | $11K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,964 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 2,652 @ $3.86 | $10K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 351,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 2,598 @ $3.86 | $10K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 415,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 2,575 @ $3.86 | $10K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 409,410 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Bishop John E | officer | Sale | 2,469 @ $3.86 | $10K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 317,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 2,430 @ $3.86 | $9K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 369,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 2,002 @ $3.86 | $8K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 349,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Brady James Parker | officer | Sale | 1,976 @ $3.86 | $8K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 1,734 @ $3.86 | $7K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 367,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Hohenleitner Susan | officer | Sale | 1,558 @ $3.86 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 227,520 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Reilly Joseph James | officer | Sale | 1,110 @ $3.86 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 145,854 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,668 @ $5.06 | $211K | −2.4% of holding | −29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,678,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 81,898 @ $5.99 | $490K | −17.8% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,195 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,666 @ $5.67 | $236K | −2.4% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,699,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 17,926 @ $6.27 | $112K | −1.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,734,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 14,933 @ $6.27 | $94K | −0.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,759,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 14,028 @ $6.27 | $88K | −0.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,720,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 7,861 @ $6.27 | $49K | −0.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,751,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 3,166 @ $6.27 | $20K | −0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 422,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $6.27 | $18K | −0.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 361,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Reilly Joseph James | officer | Sale | 2,683 @ $6.27 | $17K | −1.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 2,478 @ $6.27 | $16K | −0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 357,418 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 2,427 @ $6.27 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 420,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 2,405 @ $6.27 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 417,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Bishop John E | officer | Sale | 2,306 @ $6.27 | $14K | −0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 2,157 @ $6.27 | $14K | −0.5% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 1,911 @ $6.27 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 430,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 1,870 @ $6.27 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Brady James Parker | officer | Sale | 1,846 @ $6.27 | $12K | −0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 1,503 @ $6.27 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Hohenleitner Susan | officer | Sale | 1,455 @ $6.27 | $9K | −0.6% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 229,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 1,418 @ $6.27 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,093 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Reilly Joseph James | officer | Sale | 1,036 @ $6.27 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,666 @ $6.28 | $262K | −2.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,774,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,668 @ $6.29 | $262K | −2.3% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,795,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,666 @ $5.84 | $243K | −2.2% of holding | +3.0% | −55.6% | 1,816,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 41,666 @ $6.25 | $261K | −2.2% of holding | −9.8% | −54.4% | 1,836,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | MOTT DAVID M | director | Purchase | 333,333 @ $5.84 | $1.9M | +11.2% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 3,302,918 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 40,401 @ $5.87 | $237K | −2.1% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 1,862,567 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 9,176 @ $5.87 | $54K | −2.1% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 427,233 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 8,434 @ $5.87 | $49K | −2.3% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 365,827 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 7,192 @ $5.87 | $42K | −1.6% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 437,066 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Sale | 5,576 @ $5.71 | $32K | −0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 1,856,991 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Reilly Joseph James | officer | Sale | 4,387 @ $5.87 | $26K | −2.8% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 152,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Bishop John E | officer | Sale | 2,792 @ $5.87 | $16K | −0.8% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 339,538 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Brady James Parker | officer | Sale | 2,234 @ $5.87 | $13K | −0.8% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 263,221 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Hohenleitner Susan | officer | Sale | 1,786 @ $5.87 | $10K | −0.8% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 230,780 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Sale | 1,261 @ $5.71 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 425,972 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Kelliher Mike | director | Sale | 1,159 @ $5.71 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 364,668 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Williams Laura A | officer | Sale | 984 @ $5.71 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −2.6% | −43.8% | 436,082 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,834 | 1,720,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,834 | 290,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Williams Laura A | officer | Option exercise | 31,000 | 460,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Williams Laura A | officer | Option exercise | 31,000 | 31,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Rodgers Richard J | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 439,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | MOTT DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 20,282 | 3,323,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | MOTT DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 3,349,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | MOTT DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bertrand William C JR | director | Award / grant | 12,345 | 303,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bertrand William C JR | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 329,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bertrand William C JR | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Rodgers Richard J | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bazemore Robert B | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 68,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bazemore Robert B | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Parsey Merdad | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 83,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Parsey Merdad | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Cadoret-Manier Onaiza | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 178,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Cadoret-Manier Onaiza | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bhanji Muna | director | Award / grant | 26,455 | 163,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bhanji Muna | director | Award / grant | 39,715 | 39,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 1,740,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 311,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 1,816,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 332,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,834 | 1,837,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,834 | 353,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 1,856,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 374,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 1,877,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 20,833 | 395,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Award / grant | 206,915 | 206,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Foster Eric Duane | officer | Award / grant | 137,945 | 436,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Kelliher Mike | director | Award / grant | 103,080 | 374,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Kelliher Mike | director | Award / grant | 154,625 | 154,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 446,220 | 1,902,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | RAAB MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 669,330 | 669,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Bishop John E | officer | Award / grant | 124,330 | 342,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Bishop John E | officer | Award / grant | 186,500 | 186,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Williams Laura A | officer | Award / grant | 82,695 | 444,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Williams Laura A | officer | Award / grant | 124,040 | 124,040 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.