Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.72 · now $10.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARDT has typically landed between $8.75 and $12.67 — a range of −18.4% to +18.2% from the issuance price $10.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
522 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.74 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.88–$11.59
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.75–$12.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-17 | −43.4% | −43.4% | +4.0% |
| 2025-10-21 | −42.4% | −44.7% | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-22 | −41.8% | −44.2% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-03 | +38.2% | +0.0% | +38.2% |
| 2025-04-21 | +30.7% | +0.0% | +33.1% |
| 2025-04-22 | +26.5% | +0.0% | +30.5% |
522 overlapping windows · 2024-07-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | DeMichiei Robert | director | Purchase | 11,260 @ $8.73 | $98K | +46.3% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,564 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $8.81 | $88K | +3.1% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 329,183 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Caspers Dave | director | Award / grant | 103,653 | 174,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonick Martin | director | Withheld for tax | 10,952 | 1,303,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,381 | 265,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Caspers Dave | director | Withheld for tax | 2,684 | 35,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,808 | 749,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Byers David Raynor | officer | Withheld for tax | 924 | 118,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonick Martin | director | Award / grant | 134,615 | 1,437,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Havdala Ellen | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 115,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | DeMichiei Robert | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 24,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Award / grant | 53,846 | 319,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sotir Mark R | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 38,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Byers David Raynor | officer | Award / grant | 11,538 | 130,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sen Rahul | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 38,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Webb Robert Thomas | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 78,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Award / grant | 24,904 | 774,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bulgarelli Peter J. | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 14,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Caspers Dave | director | Award / grant | 35,673 | 71,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BYNOE PETER C B | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 115,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Campion Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 58,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Robinson Edmondo | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 58,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | GOODYEAR WILLIAM M | director | Award / grant | 14,231 | 115,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bonick Martin | director | Withheld for tax | 8,026 | 1,314,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,510 | 269,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,425 | 751,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Byers David Raynor | officer | Withheld for tax | 819 | 119,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Award / grant | 61,081 | 272,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Bonick Martin | director | Award / grant | 195,316 | 1,322,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Award / grant | 34,733 | 753,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Byers David Raynor | officer | Award / grant | 8,859 | 120,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Chernin Ethan | officer | Award / grant | 32,408 | 68,396 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-25 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,389 | 211,147 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-25 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 788 | 718,303 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-25 | Byers David Raynor | officer | Withheld for tax | 524 | 111,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-02 | DeMichiei Robert | director | Award / grant | 10,073 | 10,073 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Caspers Dave | director | Withheld for tax | 2,480 | 5,231 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Caspers Dave | director | Award / grant | 33,057 | 38,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Chernin Ethan | officer | Award / grant | 20,914 | 35,988 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | LUMSDAINE ALFRED | officer | Award / grant | 53,971 | 214,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Bonick Martin | director | Award / grant | 134,927 | 1,126,984 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Petrovich Stephen C. | officer | Award / grant | 22,263 | 719,091 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.