Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.60 · now $15.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARCT has typically landed between $10.71 and $21.98 — a range of −31.3% to +40.9% from the issuance price $15.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,328 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.3 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.15–$17.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.71–$21.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-09-26 | −81.9% | −81.9% | +0.0% |
| 2014-09-25 | −80.7% | −80.7% | +3.8% |
| 2014-09-24 | −78.9% | −78.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-01 | +222.7% | +0.0% | +222.7% |
| 2020-04-09 | +219.0% | +0.0% | +219.0% |
| 2020-04-06 | +213.5% | +0.0% | +213.5% |
3,328 overlapping windows · 2013-05-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | SASSINE ANDY | director | Purchase | 1,238 @ $16.56 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | −9.7% | −68.7% | 221,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | HOLMES EDWARD W | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Marantz Jing L. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Marquet Magda | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Slaoui Moncef | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Markels John | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BARLOW JAMES F | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | MULROY DENNIS | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Payne Joseph E | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Chivukula Pad | officer | Award / grant | 54,000 | 54,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kurata Lance | officer | Award / grant | 54,000 | 54,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Roberts Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | HOLMES EDWARD W | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | BARLOW JAMES F | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Slaoui Moncef | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Marantz Jing L. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Markels John | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Marquet Magda | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | Chivukula Pad | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | SASSINE ANDY | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | Payne Joseph E | director | Award / grant | 196,000 | 196,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | Kurata Lance | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.