ARCO · TickerCove

ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.71 · now $7.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARCO has typically landed between $6.77 and $8.99 — a range of −12.2% to +16.5% from the issuance price $7.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,857 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-04-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.71 · 42% of range

$6.47 low$9.42 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 12.8%

−12.2%worst (p90)+16.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ARCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.71 (+0.0%)
typical $7.73 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $7.24–$8.22
90% range $6.77–$8.99

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,857 windows spanning 2011-04-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−55.6%	−55.6%	+2.3%
2020-02-21	−55.2%	−56.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−55.0%	−56.1%	+1.1%
3 best
2016-03-15	+50.9%	+0.0%	+50.9%
2016-03-11	+49.8%	+0.0%	+49.8%
2016-02-23	+47.5%	+0.0%	+47.5%

3,857 overlapping windows · 2011-04-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.0%

n=15

Feb

27%

−1.6%

n=15

Mar

40%

−0.1%

n=15

Apr

53%

+3.0%

n=15

May

50%

−2.1%

n=16

Jun

44%

+0.9%

n=16

Jul

75%

+2.7%

n=16

Aug

25%

−6.0%

n=16

Sep

38%

−2.4%

n=16

Oct

67%

+2.9%

n=15

Nov

60%

+6.0%

n=15

Dec

40%

−1.2%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Sale	14,500 @ $8.06	$117K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-24	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Sale	15,274 @ $8.15	$124K	−51.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	14,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Sale	2,569 @ $8.16	$21K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Sale	20,000 @ $9.01	$180K	−40.2% of holding	−6.2%	not yet — horizon still open	29,774	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-10	Staton Woods	director	Disposition	58,207	106,129	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Disposition	24,239	60,034	Form 4
2026-05-10	Tannenbaum Mariano	officer	Disposition	22,526	64,537	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Francisco Alberto	director	Disposition	13,033	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo	officer	Disposition	7,522	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Award / grant	50,998	50,998	Form 4
2026-05-10	De Luca Cristina Presz Palmaka	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Alonso Sergio Daniel	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo	officer	Option exercise	7,522	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo	officer	Award / grant	22,610	22,610	Form 4
2026-05-10	CHU MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Berman Martin Karla Paola	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Alonso Sergio Daniel	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Francisco Alberto	director	Option exercise	13,033	13,033	Form 4
2026-05-10	Fernandez Jose Raul	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	CHU MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Velez Cadavid Jose Alberto	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	FRANQUI ANNETTE	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Fernandez Jose Raul	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Rabach Marcelo	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Option exercise	24,239	84,273	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Option exercise	24,239	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Francisco Alberto	director	Option exercise	13,033	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Velez Cadavid Jose Alberto	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Woods	director	Option exercise	58,207	164,336	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Woods	director	Option exercise	58,207	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Woods	director	Award / grant	70,427	70,427	Form 4
2026-05-10	Tannenbaum Mariano	officer	Option exercise	22,526	87,063	Form 4
2026-05-10	Tannenbaum Mariano	officer	Option exercise	22,526	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Tannenbaum Mariano	officer	Award / grant	30,266	30,266	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Option exercise	24,239	84,273	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Option exercise	24,239	0	Form 4
2026-05-10	Raganato Luis Alberto	officer	Award / grant	50,998	50,998	Form 4
2026-05-10	Rabach Marcelo	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	De Luca Cristina Presz Palmaka	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Hernandez Artigas Carlos	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4
2026-05-10	Staton Alicia	director	Award / grant	12,789	12,789	Form 4
2026-05-10	Gonzalez Avila Carlos Eduardo	officer	Option exercise	7,522	7,522	Form 4
2026-05-10	FRANQUI ANNETTE	director	Award / grant	4,435	4,435	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i