Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.37 · now $19.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARCC has typically landed between $17.73 and $20.80 — a range of −8.4% to +7.4% from the issuance price $19.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ARCC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.59 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.06–$20.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.73–$20.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −56.2% | −56.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.1% |
| 2008-09-26 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +96.6% | +0.0% | +96.6% |
| 2009-03-04 | +73.4% | −11.8% | +73.4% |
| 2008-11-20 | +72.8% | +0.0% | +72.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | MARKOWICZ JANA | officer | Purchase | 15,000 @ $19.20 | $288K | +147.4% of holding | −2.5% | −3.6% | 25,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Lem Scott C | officer | Purchase | 5,186 @ $19.29 | $100K | +15.1% of holding | −2.3% | −3.5% | 39,463 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SCHNABEL MICHAEL KORT | officer | Purchase | 12,500 @ $19.13 | $239K | +44.6% of holding | −0.6% | −2.5% | 40,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | HENSON MARY BETH | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $19.14 | $77K | +14.3% of holding | −0.6% | −2.5% | 31,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | SCHNABEL MICHAEL KORT | officer | Purchase | 13,000 @ $20.39 | $265K | +86.7% of holding | +1.5% | −6.7% | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Miller James Robert | officer | Purchase | 40,000 @ $23.32 | $933K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.8% | −9.9% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Bates Ann Torre | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $22.75 | $137K | +25.0% of holding | +3.3% | −2.8% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
1 award / exercise / gift record — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | Arougheti Michael J | director | Gift | 300,172 | 2,016,785 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.