ARCBArcBest CorpIndustrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $129.97 · now $129.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ARCB has typically landed between $106.56 and $162.60 — a range of −18.0% to +25.1% from the issuance price $129.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($129.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ARCB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $129.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$106.56worst · -18.0%$162.6best · +25.1%
  • now $129.97 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $129.91 (-0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.51–$142.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $106.56–$162.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-05-11−33.3%−33.3%+0.0%
2009-02-05−32.9%−35.3%+4.3%
2012-07-31−32.7%−32.7%+0.0%
3 best
2013-05-01+96.8%+0.0%+97.1%
2013-05-02+92.4%+0.0%+95.1%
2013-04-30+82.6%−7.4%+82.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
45%
+0.5%
n=20
Apr
55%
+0.5%
n=20
May
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Jun
45%
+1.6%
n=20
Jul
80%
+6.2%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.9%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Nov
55%
+6.1%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$173$592026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $116K — Parks Jason T2026-08-11: 2 insider sales, $737K — Anderson Dennis L II …2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $397K — MCREYNOLDS JUDY R2026-08-06: 3 insider sales, $895K — Stipp Janice E, MCREYNOLDS JUDY R …2026-08-04: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Gattis Erin K, MCREYNOLDS JUDY R2026-08: 8 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $116K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Parks Jason T — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed same dayofficer Anderson Dennis L II — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Anderson Dennis L II — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MCREYNOLDS JUDY R — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stipp Janice E — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MCREYNOLDS JUDY R — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stipp Janice E — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gattis Erin K — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MCREYNOLDS JUDY R — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Parks Jason TofficerSale855 @ $135.09$116K−18.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,794Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-11Anderson Dennis L IIofficerSale3,347 @ $134.87$451K−16.7% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open16,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Anderson Dennis L IIofficerSale2,103 @ $135.63$285K−12.6% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open14,647Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07MCREYNOLDS JUDY RdirectorSale2,857 @ $138.98$397K−5.4% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open50,048Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-06Stipp Janice EdirectorSale3,600 @ $139.20$501K−16.6% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open18,035Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06MCREYNOLDS JUDY RdirectorSale1,443 @ $139.30$201K−2.7% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open52,905Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Stipp Janice EdirectorSale1,400 @ $137.46$192K−6.1% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open21,635Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Gattis Erin KofficerSale6,163 @ $140.00$863K−20.2% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open24,286Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04MCREYNOLDS JUDY RdirectorSale1,500 @ $144.78$217K−2.4% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open61,348Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07Hogan Michael PdirectorPurchase3,418 @ $59.00$202K+11.7% of holding+1.5%−0.9%32,664Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13Beasley John MatthewofficerPurchase700 @ $74.89$52K+9.4% of holding−11.8%−23.3%8,142Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Sorg Ralph EdwardofficerGift20022,624Form 4
2026-08-11Anderson Dennis L IIofficerGift1,95012,697Form 4
2026-08-05MCREYNOLDS JUDY RdirectorGift7,00054,348Form 4
2026-05-07RUNSER SETHdirectorWithheld for tax21929,246Form 4
2026-05-07Beasley John MatthewofficerWithheld for tax19314,222Form 4
2026-05-07Gattis Erin KofficerWithheld for tax14430,449Form 4
2026-05-07Anderson Dennis L IIofficerWithheld for tax14420,097Form 4
2026-05-07Adkins Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax1306,872Form 4
2026-05-07Sorg Ralph EdwardofficerWithheld for tax13022,824Form 4
2026-05-07Godfrey Matthew RofficerWithheld for tax10912,685Form 4
2026-05-07Parks Jason TofficerWithheld for tax734,649Form 4
2026-05-06RUNSER SETHdirectorWithheld for tax64329,465Form 4
2026-05-06Beasley John MatthewofficerWithheld for tax43814,415Form 4
2026-05-06Godfrey Matthew RofficerWithheld for tax35412,794Form 4
2026-05-06Anderson Dennis L IIofficerWithheld for tax35420,241Form 4
2026-05-06Sorg Ralph EdwardofficerWithheld for tax33722,954Form 4
2026-05-06Gattis Erin KofficerWithheld for tax30630,593Form 4
2026-05-06Hagy James BrentofficerWithheld for tax3034,622Form 4
2026-05-06Adkins Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax2727,002Form 4
2026-05-06Parks Jason TofficerWithheld for tax1494,722Form 4
2026-05-05RUNSER SETHdirectorWithheld for tax34930,108Form 4
2026-05-05Beasley John MatthewofficerWithheld for tax32114,853Form 4
2026-05-05Anderson Dennis L IIofficerWithheld for tax29320,595Form 4
2026-05-05Gattis Erin KofficerWithheld for tax24530,899Form 4
2026-05-05Sorg Ralph EdwardofficerWithheld for tax21723,291Form 4
2026-05-05Godfrey Matthew RofficerWithheld for tax18013,148Form 4
2026-05-05Parks Jason TofficerWithheld for tax1224,871Form 4
2026-05-05Adkins Christopher AofficerWithheld for tax787,274Form 4
2026-05-05Godfrey Matthew RofficerAward / grant2,20013,328Form 4
2026-05-05George Bobby KdirectorAward / grant1,3501,350Form 4
2026-05-05RUNSER SETHdirectorAward / grant10,15030,457Form 4
2026-05-05Parks Jason TofficerAward / grant7754,993Form 4
2026-05-05MCREYNOLDS JUDY RdirectorAward / grant1,3501,350Form 4
2026-05-05CONRADO EDUARDO FdirectorAward / grant1,35026,225Form 4
2026-05-05Stipp Janice EdirectorAward / grant1,35023,035Form 4
2026-05-05Hogan Michael PdirectorAward / grant1,35034,014Form 4
2026-05-05Adkins Christopher AofficerAward / grant1,4507,352Form 4
2026-05-05Hagy James BrentofficerAward / grant1,8504,925Form 4
2026-05-05Beasley John MatthewofficerAward / grant3,00015,174Form 4
2026-05-05Sorg Ralph EdwardofficerAward / grant2,02523,508Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.