ARAntero Resources Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.68 · now $35.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AR has typically landed between $29.23 and $43.92 — a range of −18.1% to +23.1% from the issuance price $35.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,219 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.23worst · -18.1%$43.92best · +23.1%
  • now $35.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.81–$39.19
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.23–$43.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,219 windows spanning 2013-10-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−54.2%−54.2%+0.0%
2020-02-28−53.8%−53.8%+0.0%
2020-03-02−51.7%−51.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-02+373.3%+0.0%+373.3%
2020-04-03+331.2%+0.0%+333.8%
2020-03-31+319.7%−5.8%+319.7%

3,219 overlapping windows · 2013-10-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
62%
+1.7%
n=13
Feb
46%
+1.6%
n=13
Mar
69%
+1.7%
n=13
Apr
46%
+25.7%
n=13
May
54%
+2.5%
n=13
Jun
46%
−2.6%
n=13
Jul
38%
−2.1%
n=13
Aug
46%
−3.6%
n=13
Sep
38%
−2.4%
n=13
Oct
42%
+1.9%
n=12
Nov
23%
−3.5%
n=13
Dec
38%
+3.1%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$45$302026-05-04: 4 insider sales, $8.9M — Kennedy Michael N., Schultz Yvette K …2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $528K — Hardesty Benjamin A.2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $750K — Pearce Sheri2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $590K — Schultz Yvette K2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $432K — Hardesty Benjamin A.2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $167K — Krueger Brendan E.2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $167K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $432K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $8.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kennedy Michael N. — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Schultz Yvette K — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Kennedy Michael N. — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Schultz Yvette K — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same daydirector Hardesty Benjamin A. — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed same dayofficer Pearce Sheri — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed same daydirector Schultz Yvette K — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hardesty Benjamin A. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Krueger Brendan E. — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Kennedy Michael N.directorSale170,740 @ $39.31$6.7M−13.4% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open1,100,278Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04Schultz Yvette KdirectorSale38,941 @ $39.26$1.5M−12.3% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open278,214Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04Kennedy Michael N.directorSale15,086 @ $39.61$598K−1.4% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open1,085,192Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04Schultz Yvette KdirectorSale549 @ $39.76$22K−0.2% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open277,665Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-19Hardesty Benjamin A.directorSale12,000 @ $44.00$528K−7.4% of holding−23.3%not yet — horizon still open150,242Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-10Pearce SheriofficerSale19,667 @ $38.13$750K−28.0% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open50,658Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Schultz Yvette KdirectorSale15,000 @ $39.33$590K−4.5% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open319,122Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Hardesty Benjamin A.directorSale12,000 @ $36.00$432K−6.9% of holding+27.8%−13.6%162,242Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-07Krueger Brendan E.officerPurchase5,000 @ $33.35$167K+1.7% of holding+9.2%−2.7%295,917Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Schultz Yvette KdirectorSale25,200 @ $39.86$1.0M−7.6% of holding+6.3%−27.4%306,819Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-14Keenan W Howard JRdirectorSale38,013 @ $40.32$1.5M−100.0% of holding+1.3%−31.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Keenan W Howard JRdirectorSale583,189 @ $40.60$23.7M−53.0% of holding−5.3%−31.3%516,811Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Keenan W Howard JRdirectorSale478,798 @ $41.09$19.7M−92.6% of holding−5.3%−31.3%38,013Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Pearce SheriofficerSale12,647 @ $41.18$521K−16.7% of holding−5.3%−31.3%63,235Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Pearce SheriofficerSale9,830 @ $35.60$350K−10.7% of holding−5.5%−27.2%81,887Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Keenan W Howard JRdirectorSale700,000 @ $40.57$28.4M−38.9% of holding+9.3%−28.9%1,100,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Mutschler Jacqueline CdirectorSale12,746 @ $40.35$514K−17.4% of holding+9.3%−28.9%60,362Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Keenan W Howard JRdirectorSale200,000 @ $39.76$8.0M−10.0% of holding+10.5%−30.1%1,800,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10Sutil VickydirectorAward / grant1,617104,458Form 4
2026-07-10Schroer Brenda RdirectorAward / grant1,61738,661Form 4
2026-07-10Munoz Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,61710,604Form 4
2026-07-10Keenan W Howard JRdirectorAward / grant1,617372,938Form 4
2026-07-10Hardesty Benjamin A.directorAward / grant2,181154,336Form 4
2026-07-10Mutschler Jacqueline CdirectorAward / grant1,61769,991Form 4
2026-07-10Tyree Thomas B JRdirectorAward / grant1,617104,458Form 4
2026-04-10Sutil VickydirectorAward / grant1,418102,841Form 4
2026-04-10Hardesty Benjamin A.directorAward / grant1,913152,155Form 4
2026-04-10Schroer Brenda RdirectorAward / grant1,41837,044Form 4
2026-04-10Mutschler Jacqueline CdirectorAward / grant1,41868,374Form 4
2026-04-10Munoz Jeffrey S.directorAward / grant1,4188,987Form 4
2026-04-10Tyree Thomas B JRdirectorAward / grant1,418102,841Form 4
2026-04-10Keenan W Howard JRdirectorAward / grant1,418371,321Form 4
2026-03-16Kennedy Michael N.directorWithheld for tax13,7291,271,018Form 4
2026-03-16Schultz Yvette KdirectorWithheld for tax8,382317,155Form 4
2026-03-16Krueger Brendan E.officerWithheld for tax6,706328,619Form 4
2026-03-16Kennedy Michael N.directorOption exercise10,5101,284,747Form 4
2026-03-16Krueger Brendan E.officerOption exercise5,132335,325Form 4
2026-03-16Schultz Yvette KdirectorOption exercise6,415325,537Form 4
2026-03-16Krueger Brendan E.officerOption exercise5,1320Form 4
2026-03-16Krueger Brendan E.officerOption exercise5,1320Form 4
2026-03-16Kennedy Michael N.directorOption exercise10,5100Form 4
2026-03-16Schultz Yvette KdirectorOption exercise6,4150Form 4
2026-03-16Kennedy Michael N.directorOption exercise10,5100Form 4
2026-03-16Schultz Yvette KdirectorOption exercise6,4150Form 4
2026-03-07Kennedy Michael N.directorWithheld for tax33,2031,274,237Form 4
2026-03-07Schultz Yvette KdirectorWithheld for tax20,270334,122Form 4
2026-03-07Krueger Brendan E.officerWithheld for tax17,355330,193Form 4
2026-03-07Pearce SheriofficerWithheld for tax13,51470,325Form 4
2026-03-07Krueger Brendan E.officerAward / grant9,6579,657Form 4
2026-03-07Kennedy Michael N.directorAward / grant103,0131,307,440Form 4
2026-03-07Kennedy Michael N.directorAward / grant25,75325,753Form 4
2026-03-07Schultz Yvette KdirectorAward / grant38,629354,392Form 4
2026-03-07Schultz Yvette KdirectorAward / grant9,6579,657Form 4
2026-03-07Pearce SheriofficerAward / grant22,53483,839Form 4
2026-03-07Krueger Brendan E.officerAward / grant38,629347,548Form 4
2026-02-25Kennedy Michael N.directorWithheld for tax74,1521,204,427Form 4
2026-02-25Schultz Yvette KdirectorWithheld for tax50,101315,763Form 4
2026-02-25Krueger Brendan E.officerWithheld for tax41,233308,919Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-22$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2024-11-112024-10-31$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2024-09-112024-08-02$1–15K
Christopher L. JacobsHousesale2022-09-092022-07-18$1–15K
Christopher L. JacobsHousepurchase2022-05-192022-04-11$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-12-202019-11-19$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-12-202019-11-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-12-202019-11-18$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-10-152019-08-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2019-03-262019-02-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-03-082019-02-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-02-122019-01-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.