AQST · TickerCove

AQSTAquestive Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-25

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $4.68 · now $4.68 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AQST has typically landed between $3.36 and $6.87 — a range of −28.1% to +46.9% from the issuance price $4.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,033 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-25 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($4.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.68 · 38% of range

$2.95 low$7.49 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-25 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,391 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.7%

90% CI 51.5%–55.9%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 33.2%

−28.1%worst (p90)+46.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AQST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $4.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.68 (+0.0%)
typical $4.69 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $3.91–$5.47
90% range $3.36–$6.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,033 windows spanning 2018-07-25 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−64.8%	−64.8%	+0.5%
2020-02-12	−62.5%	−62.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−62.5%	−63.7%	+3.8%
3 best
2020-04-03	+144.6%	+0.0%	+158.2%
2020-03-16	+144.2%	+0.0%	+144.2%
2020-04-02	+139.4%	−2.1%	+152.7%

2,033 overlapping windows · 2018-07-25 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

13%

−14.6%

n=8

Feb

50%

+10.3%

n=8

Mar

63%

+2.6%

n=8

Apr

38%

+0.9%

n=8

May

25%

−1.4%

n=8

Jun

50%

−3.6%

n=8

Jul

63%

+10.6%

n=8

Aug

78%

+25.2%

n=9

Sep

22%

−4.3%

n=9

Oct

63%

+4.2%

n=8

Nov

63%

+19.2%

n=8

Dec

13%

−18.6%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	25,000 @ $4.82	$120K	−3.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	652,317	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Sale	8,750 @ $5.22	$46K	−3.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	235,689	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	25,000 @ $4.29	$107K	−4.1% of holding	+15.0%	not yet — horizon still open	585,574	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	20,369 @ $4.00	$82K	−3.2% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	610,574	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-15	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	4,631 @ $4.03	$19K	−0.7% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	630,943	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23	Krop Julie	director	Sale	25,000 @ $5.02	$125K	−100.0% of holding	−25.7%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	25,000 @ $4.16	$104K	−3.8% of holding	−6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	635,574	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	8,257 @ $4.29	$35K	−1.2% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	660,574	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	180,677 @ $4.17	$754K	−15.2% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	1,004,753	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	TOTH A ERNEST JR	officer	Sale	58,254 @ $4.17	$243K	−13.4% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	376,112	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	Jung Cassie	officer	Sale	45,791 @ $4.17	$191K	−14.3% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	274,980	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	BRAENDER LORI J	officer	Sale	40,102 @ $4.17	$167K	−8.3% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	442,879	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Sale	29,814 @ $4.17	$124K	−8.1% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	338,509	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	Cioffi Melina	officer	Sale	25,311 @ $4.17	$106K	−8.4% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	274,867	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Sale	15,741 @ $4.17	$66K	−6.1% of holding	−1.4%	+9.4%	241,117	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Jung Cassie	officer	Sale	67,575 @ $7.01	$474K	−21.9% of holding	−28.8%	−48.5%	240,771	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-15	Kraus Carl N	officer	Sale	20,272 @ $7.00	$142K	−6.7% of holding	−28.8%	−48.5%	282,475	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-15	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $7.00	$70K	−3.6% of holding	−28.8%	−48.5%	268,323	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-26	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	91,343 @ $6.03	$551K	−9.0% of holding	+13.3%	−28.6%	923,430	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-26	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $6.30	$63K	−3.5% of holding	+13.3%	−28.6%	278,323	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-19	Barber Daniel	director	Sale	400 @ $6.00	$2K	−0.0% of holding	+31.0%	−30.0%	1,014,773	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Sale	15,000 @ $5.30	$80K	−4.9% of holding	+6.1%	−26.2%	288,323	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-04	Jung Cassie	officer	Sale	62,180 @ $5.00	$311K	−18.0% of holding	+11.2%	−20.8%	283,346	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-11-26	Jung Cassie	officer	Sale	44 @ $4.87	$214	−100.0% of holding	−27.3%	−41.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-15	Schobel Alexander Mark	officer	Sale	50,000 @ $6.00	$300K	−4.8% of holding	−35.5%	−29.3%	984,476	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-03-08	Schobel Alexander Mark	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $5.19	$130K	−2.3% of holding	−18.0%	−11.3%	1,040,371	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Option exercise	8,750	244,439	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Exercise	2,293	284,024	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Exercise	2,293	0	Form 4
2026-09-09	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Option exercise	8,750	26,250	Form 4
2026-09-08	Barber Daniel	director	Exercise	91,743	677,317	Form 4
2026-09-08	Barber Daniel	director	Exercise	91,743	0	Form 4
2026-09-03	Jung Cassie	officer	Exercise	4,587	206,833	Form 4
2026-09-03	Jung Cassie	officer	Exercise	4,587	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Withheld for tax	2,714	235,689	Form 4
2026-06-23	Krop Julie	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-06-23	Krop Julie	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-10	BROWN GREGORY B	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-10	Cochran John	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-10	Taglietti Marco	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-10	MORRIS TIMOTHY E	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-10	Krop Julie	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-10	Jenkins Abigail L.	director	Award / grant	50,500	50,500	Form 4
2026-06-08	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Withheld for tax	2,714	238,403	Form 4
2026-05-18	Zalewski Thomas A.	officer	Award / grant	100,000	100,000	Form 4
2026-05-18	Zalewski Thomas A.	officer	Award / grant	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-05-15	Cioffi Melina	officer	Withheld for tax	1,667	273,200	Form 4
2026-05-07	BRAENDER LORI J	officer	Withheld for tax	135,690	231,042	Form 4
2026-05-05	Barber Daniel	director	Withheld for tax	335,922	668,831	Form 4
2026-05-05	TOTH A ERNEST JR	officer	Withheld for tax	92,652	283,460	Form 4
2026-05-05	BRAENDER LORI J	officer	Withheld for tax	76,147	366,732	Form 4
2026-05-05	Jung Cassie	officer	Withheld for tax	72,734	202,246	Form 4
2026-05-05	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Withheld for tax	56,778	281,731	Form 4
2026-03-09	Barber Daniel	director	Award / grant	523,000	523,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	Cioffi Melina	officer	Award / grant	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	Greenhawt Matthew J.	officer	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	BRAENDER LORI J	officer	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Award / grant	42,500	42,500	Form 4
2026-03-09	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Award / grant	42,500	42,500	Form 4
2026-03-09	Davis Matthew W.	officer	Award / grant	50,000	100,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	TOTH A ERNEST JR	officer	Award / grant	95,000	434,366	Form 4
2026-03-09	Greenhawt Matthew J.	officer	Award / grant	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2026-03-09	Korczynski Sherry	officer	Award / grant	75,000	256,858	Form 4
2026-03-09	Barber Daniel	director	Award / grant	262,000	1,185,430	Form 4
2026-03-09	Boyd Peter E.	officer	Award / grant	80,000	368,323	Form 4
2026-03-09	BRAENDER LORI J	officer	Award / grant	80,000	482,981	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-2610% elapsed2026-10-26

Logged immutably 2026-09-26; scored automatically on 2026-10-26 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i