APTVAptiv PLCConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.34 · now $43.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APTV has typically landed between $34.81 and $50.75 — a range of −19.7% to +17.1% from the issuance price $43.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,706 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APTV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.81worst · -19.7%$50.75best · +17.1%
  • now $43.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.66 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.37–$45.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.81–$50.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,706 windows spanning 2011-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.9%−61.9%+3.5%
2020-02-19−55.3%−63.0%+0.4%
2020-02-20−50.4%−63.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+90.5%+0.0%+90.5%
2020-04-03+51.6%+0.0%+65.5%
2020-03-19+46.7%+0.0%+57.5%

3,706 overlapping windows · 2011-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.0B
market cap
$1.68
EPS (TTM)
33.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$20.4B
'20'25
Net income$165M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr1.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.88
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $43.34$33.43$128.97
  • DCF (intrinsic)$122.38
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$40.02
  • Analyst target · range $71.00–$106.00$82.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$43.34

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+2.1%
n=15
Feb
67%
+4.5%
n=15
Mar
40%
−4.6%
n=15
Apr
40%
+1.5%
n=15
May
67%
+3.2%
n=15
Jun
40%
−0.9%
n=15
Jul
67%
+3.7%
n=15
Aug
53%
−0.7%
n=15
Sep
60%
−0.5%
n=15
Oct
57%
+0.5%
n=14
Nov
50%
+2.2%
n=14
Dec
67%
+2.8%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$89$432026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $199K — Agnevall Hakan2026-08-11: 3 insider purchases, $553K — Mahoney Sean O …2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $2.5M — CLARK KEVIN P2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $5.0M — MEISTER PAUL M2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $209K — Louissaint Obed D.2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $157K — Ramundo Katherine H2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $352K — Agnevall Hakan2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $425K — Ramundo Katherine H2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $400K — Laroyia Varun2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $297K — Agnevall Hakan2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $604K — Mahoney Sean O2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Laroyia Varun2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Ramundo Katherine H2025-09-18: 1 insider sale, $85K — Brazier Allan J2025-08-26: 2 insider sales, $763K — Brazier Allan J, Louissaint Obed D.2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Massaro Joseph R2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $113K — Louissaint Obed D.2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $105K — Louissaint Obed D.2025-08: 7 open-market sales, $3.8M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $85K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $297K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $425K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $352K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $365K2026-08: 6 open-market purchases, $8.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Agnevall Hakan — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mahoney Sean O — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mahoney Sean O — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mahoney Sean O — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CLARK KEVIN P — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MEISTER PAUL M — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Louissaint Obed D. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ramundo Katherine H — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Agnevall Hakan — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ramundo Katherine H — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Laroyia Varun — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Agnevall Hakan — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mahoney Sean O — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Laroyia Varun — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ramundo Katherine H — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brazier Allan J — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Brazier Allan J — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Louissaint Obed D. — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Massaro Joseph R — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Louissaint Obed D. — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Louissaint Obed D. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Agnevall HakandirectorPurchase4,100 @ $48.58$199K+29.9% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open17,797Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-11Mahoney Sean OdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $50.21$301Kownership Δ n/a−6.3%not yet — horizon still open6,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Mahoney Sean OdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $50.29$201K+19.5% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open24,514Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Mahoney Sean OdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $50.28$50Kownership Δ n/a−6.3%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10CLARK KEVIN PdirectorPurchase51,190 @ $48.89$2.5M+8.5% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open651,016Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05MEISTER PAUL MdirectorPurchase105,631 @ $47.33$5.0Mownership Δ n/a−1.5%not yet — horizon still open105,631Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Louissaint Obed D.officerSale3,000 @ $69.60$209K−1.4% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open210,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03Ramundo Katherine HofficerSale2,000 @ $78.30$157K−1.2% of holding−22.1%not yet — horizon still open163,752Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Agnevall HakandirectorPurchase6,100 @ $57.73$352K+80.3% of holding+18.3%not yet — horizon still open13,697Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-08Ramundo Katherine HofficerSale5,000 @ $85.00$425K−4.1% of holding−4.2%−40.7%116,959Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Laroyia VarunofficerSale5,000 @ $80.05$400K−3.2% of holding+3.7%−27.3%150,769Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Agnevall HakandirectorPurchase3,700 @ $80.25$297K+387.4% of holding+3.7%−27.3%4,655Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Mahoney Sean OdirectorSale7,881 @ $76.60$604K−31.5% of holding+6.7%−18.4%17,154Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-04Laroyia VarunofficerSale14,500 @ $77.88$1.1M−8.5% of holding+6.7%−18.0%155,769Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10Ramundo Katherine HofficerSale13,000 @ $84.00$1.1M−9.6% of holding−5.8%−43.9%121,959Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18Brazier Allan JofficerSale1,000 @ $85.00$85K−2.0% of holding−3.7%−31.2%49,820Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-26Brazier Allan JofficerSale6,539 @ $80.00$523K−11.4% of holding+3.8%−11.0%50,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26Louissaint Obed D.officerSale3,000 @ $80.00$240K−1.8% of holding+3.8%−11.0%166,255Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21Massaro Joseph RdirectorSale35,000 @ $74.36$2.6M−9.6% of holding+9.6%−4.6%329,392Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18Louissaint Obed D.officerSale1,500 @ $75.00$113K−0.9% of holding+7.0%+3.4%169,255Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Louissaint Obed D.officerSale1,500 @ $70.00$105K−0.9% of holding+14.4%+8.5%170,755Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Louissaint Obed D.officerSale1,500 @ $65.66$98K−0.9% of holding+20.7%+15.1%172,255Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Louissaint Obed D.officerSale1,500 @ $65.66$98K−0.9% of holding+20.7%+15.1%173,755Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-10Lyon BenjaminofficerSale14,568 @ $65.50$954K−10.4% of holding−12.1%+11.0%125,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12CLARK KEVIN PdirectorGift51,190599,826Form 4
2026-07-14Brazier Allan JofficerWithheld for tax4,06263,323Form 4
2026-04-29Mahoney Sean OdirectorAward / grant3,29220,514Form 4
2026-04-29MEISTER PAUL MdirectorAward / grant6,34413,612Form 4
2026-04-29Parris Colin J.directorAward / grant3,29222,791Form 4
2026-04-29Pinczuk Ana G.directorAward / grant3,08613,314Form 4
2026-04-29Ortberg Robert KellydirectorAward / grant3,08619,448Form 4
2026-04-29Agnevall HakandirectorAward / grant3,0867,597Form 4
2026-04-29COOPER NANCY EdirectorAward / grant3,39520,406Form 4
2026-04-29HOOLEY JOSEPH LdirectorAward / grant5,57227,869Form 4
2026-04-29Jakkal Vasumati P.directorAward / grant4,11512,049Form 4
2026-04-29Janow Merit EdirectorAward / grant3,08613,804Form 4
2026-04-28MEISTER PAUL MdirectorWithheld for tax5907,268Form 4
2026-04-28HOOLEY JOSEPH LdirectorWithheld for tax51822,297Form 4
2026-04-28Mahoney Sean OdirectorWithheld for tax40817,222Form 4
2026-04-28Jakkal Vasumati P.directorWithheld for tax3837,934Form 4
2026-04-28COOPER NANCY EdirectorWithheld for tax31617,011Form 4
2026-04-28Parris Colin J.directorWithheld for tax30619,499Form 4
2026-04-28Ortberg Robert KellydirectorWithheld for tax28716,362Form 4
2026-04-28Janow Merit EdirectorWithheld for tax28710,718Form 4
2026-04-28Pinczuk Ana G.directorWithheld for tax28710,228Form 4
2026-04-28Agnevall HakandirectorWithheld for tax2714,511Form 4
2026-04-22Massaro Joseph RdirectorAward / grant41,933375,073Form 4
2026-04-22Laroyia VarunofficerAward / grant42,771230,962Form 4
2026-04-22Laroyia VarunofficerAward / grant28,514188,191Form 4
2026-04-22Louissaint Obed D.officerAward / grant22,812179,587Form 4
2026-04-22Louissaint Obed D.officerAward / grant34,216213,803Form 4
2026-04-22Massaro Joseph RdirectorAward / grant62,898437,971Form 4
2026-04-22CLARK KEVIN PdirectorAward / grant97,283453,902Form 4
2026-04-22CLARK KEVIN PdirectorAward / grant145,924599,826Form 4
2026-04-22Ramundo Katherine HofficerAward / grant18,786137,573Form 4
2026-04-22Ramundo Katherine HofficerAward / grant28,179165,752Form 4
2026-04-22Brazier Allan JofficerAward / grant6,03958,328Form 4
2026-04-22Brazier Allan JofficerAward / grant9,05767,385Form 4
2026-03-03CLARK KEVIN PdirectorGift83,988315,006Form 4
2026-02-28CLARK KEVIN PdirectorWithheld for tax80,115398,994Form 4
2026-02-28Massaro Joseph RdirectorWithheld for tax31,568311,596Form 4
2026-02-28Louissaint Obed D.officerWithheld for tax17,315144,742Form 4
2026-02-28Ramundo Katherine HofficerWithheld for tax13,160109,308Form 4
2026-02-28Laroyia VarunofficerWithheld for tax8,626142,143Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Daniel MeuserHousesale2025-08-202025-02-11$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
John JamesHousepurchase2024-09-022023-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.