APPSDigital Turbine, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.84 · now $10.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APPS has typically landed between $6.94 and $16.84 — a range of −36.0% to +55.4% from the issuance price $10.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,993 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.94worst · -36.0%$16.84best · +55.4%
  • now $10.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.38 (-4.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.11–$12.66
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.94–$16.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,993 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-04-08−63.5%−63.5%+5.9%
2009-04-09−63.5%−63.5%+5.9%
2009-04-13−63.5%−63.5%+5.9%
3 best
2008-11-18+337.5%+0.0%+337.5%
2008-11-17+337.5%+0.0%+337.5%
2008-11-14+337.5%+0.0%+337.5%

4,993 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+2.8%
n=20
Feb
60%
+5.0%
n=20
Mar
50%
+8.5%
n=20
Apr
35%
−3.2%
n=20
May
40%
+8.7%
n=20
Jun
45%
+5.2%
n=20
Jul
45%
+1.6%
n=20
Aug
55%
+8.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Oct
35%
−4.9%
n=20
Nov
50%
+6.7%
n=20
Dec
70%
+6.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$32026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $2K — Kinsell Joshua2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $2K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kinsell Joshua — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-23Kinsell JoshuaofficerSale578 @ $4.06$2K−0.2% of holding−23.1%+152.1%277,776Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.59$259K+6.0% of holding−10.5%+45.9%1,762,503Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorAward / grant204,4981,947,284Form 4
2026-09-02Akkerman MichaelofficerAward / grant76,687337,919Form 4
2026-09-02John BenneaserofficerAward / grant51,124744,193Form 4
2026-09-02Kinsell JoshuaofficerAward / grant51,124315,226Form 4
2026-09-02Akkerman MichaelofficerAward / grant76,68776,687Form 4
2026-09-02John BenneaserofficerAward / grant51,12451,124Form 4
2026-09-02Kinsell JoshuaofficerAward / grant51,12451,124Form 4
2026-09-02STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorAward / grant204,498204,498Form 4
2026-08-25DEUTSCHMAN ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant23,753662,170Form 4
2026-08-25GYANI MOHAN SdirectorAward / grant19,15977,863Form 4
2026-08-25Karish JeffdirectorAward / grant19,113471,203Form 4
2026-08-25STERLING MICHELLE MdirectorAward / grant18,951170,163Form 4
2026-08-25Groos Holyce HessdirectorAward / grant19,390163,127Form 4
2026-08-25Chestnutt Roy HdirectorAward / grant18,928270,154Form 4
2026-08-24STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax2,6121,742,786Form 4
2026-08-24Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax556264,102Form 4
2026-08-04Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax618264,658Form 4
2026-07-08Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax5,663265,276Form 4
2026-06-08Akkerman MichaelofficerWithheld for tax19,313261,232Form 4
2026-05-28STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax2,1411,745,398Form 4
2026-05-21Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax556270,939Form 4
2026-05-06Lasher Stephen AndrewofficerWithheld for tax15,096423,531Form 4
2026-04-29Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax618271,495Form 4
2026-04-08Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax5,663272,113Form 4
2026-04-06John BenneaserofficerAward / grant693,069693,069Form 4
2026-03-03Akkerman MichaelofficerWithheld for tax28,965280,545Form 4
2026-02-27STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax2,6071,747,539Form 4
2026-02-20STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax1,9681,750,146Form 4
2026-02-06Lasher Stephen AndrewofficerWithheld for tax61,373438,627Form 4
2026-01-29Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax752278,354Form 4
2026-01-12GYANI MOHAN SdirectorGift170,12158,704Form 4
2026-01-09GYANI MOHAN SdirectorOption exercise75,000228,825Form 4
2026-01-09GYANI MOHAN SdirectorOption exercise75,0000Form 4
2026-01-09Kinsell JoshuaofficerDisposition6,896279,106Form 4
2025-12-08Akkerman MichaelofficerWithheld for tax19,313309,510Form 4
2025-11-26STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax2,1411,752,114Form 4
2025-11-24Kinsell JoshuaofficerWithheld for tax537286,002Form 4
2025-11-21STONE WILLIAM GORDON IIIdirectorWithheld for tax1,6171,754,255Form 4
2025-11-21Kanagaratnam SenthilkumaranofficerWithheld for tax486129,128Form 4
2025-11-07Kanagaratnam SenthilkumaranofficerWithheld for tax4,020129,614Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.