APPNAppian CorporationTechnology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.50 · now $37.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APPN has typically landed between $29.59 and $47.44 — a range of −21.1% to +26.5% from the issuance price $37.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,319 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.59worst · -21.1%$47.44best · +26.5%
  • now $37.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.32 (-3.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.96–$39.69
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.59–$47.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,319 windows spanning 2017-05-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−50.2%−50.2%+0.0%
2020-02-13−43.7%−43.7%+10.4%
2020-02-20−43.5%−49.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-28+199.0%−2.4%+199.0%
2020-10-27+160.4%−5.7%+160.4%
2020-11-03+117.8%+0.0%+187.0%

2,319 overlapping windows · 2017-05-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+8.1%
n=9
Feb
44%
−3.4%
n=9
Mar
22%
−4.8%
n=9
Apr
44%
−3.5%
n=9
May
67%
+2.3%
n=9
Jun
50%
+7.0%
n=10
Jul
60%
+2.7%
n=10
Aug
60%
+14.3%
n=10
Sep
30%
−3.6%
n=10
Oct
33%
−3.7%
n=9
Nov
44%
+12.8%
n=9
Dec
33%
−1.3%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$46$192026-09-08: 3 insider sales, $1.6M — Calkins Matthew W …2026-08-07: 4 insider sales, $1.6M — Calkins Matthew W …2026-07-07: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — Calkins Matthew W …2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Calkins Matthew W2026-05-13: 2 insider purchases, $100K — Dorsey Mark …2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $257K — Lynch Mark Steven2025-08: 14 open-market sales, $31.4M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $257K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $100K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Calkins Matthew W — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dorsey Mark — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed same dayofficer Dorsey Mark — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed same daydirector Lynch Mark Steven — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale23,888 @ $34.73$830K−1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,650,256Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-08Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale19,116 @ $35.58$680K−1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,631,140Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-08Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale1,996 @ $37.07$74K−0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,629,144Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale31,547 @ $34.79$1.1M−1.8% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open1,674,144Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale9,264 @ $34.34$318K−0.5% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open1,705,691Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale2,580 @ $31.66$82K−0.2% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open1,716,564Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale1,609 @ $33.09$53K−0.1% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open1,714,955Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale37,515 @ $24.61$923K−2.1% of holding+18.4%not yet — horizon still open1,731,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale12,485 @ $25.07$313K−0.7% of holding+18.4%not yet — horizon still open1,719,144Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Calkins Matthew WdirectorSale50,000 @ $24.13$1.2M−2.7% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open1,769,144Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Dorsey MarkofficerPurchase5,220 @ $19.13$100K+59.5% of holding+28.3%not yet — horizon still open13,986Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13Dorsey MarkofficerPurchase7 @ $19.15$134+0.1% of holding+28.3%not yet — horizon still open13,993Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03Lynch Mark StevendirectorSale9,530 @ $27.00$257K−17.8% of holding−7.2%+37.6%43,968Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale275,416 @ $29.11$8.0M−6.1% of holding+10.4%−22.1%4,260,396Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale13,216 @ $29.11$385K−0.3% of holding+10.4%−22.1%4,247,180Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale896 @ $29.36$26K−0.0% of holding+10.4%−22.1%4,246,284Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale336,027 @ $29.21$9.8M−6.3% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,964,780Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale276,752 @ $30.09$8.3M−5.6% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,671,904Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale104,933 @ $31.10$3.3M−2.3% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,553,691Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale16,124 @ $29.21$471K−0.3% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,948,656Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale13,280 @ $30.09$400K−0.3% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,658,624Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale11,508 @ $32.17$370K−0.3% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,537,148Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale5,035 @ $31.10$157K−0.1% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,548,656Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale784 @ $31.00$24K−0.0% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,535,812Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale552 @ $32.17$18K−0.0% of holding+7.2%−23.5%4,536,596Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale3,187 @ $27.88$89K−0.1% of holding+11.1%−15.3%5,300,936Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale129 @ $27.88$4K−0.0% of holding+11.1%−15.3%5,300,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-29Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale10,677 @ $29.71$317K−0.2% of holding+0.0%−5.9%5,315,151Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-29Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale10,034 @ $30.28$304K−0.2% of holding+0.0%−5.9%5,304,605Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-29Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale512 @ $29.71$15K−0.0% of holding+0.0%−5.9%5,314,639Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-29Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale482 @ $30.28$15K−0.0% of holding+0.0%−5.9%5,304,123Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale312,014 @ $30.40$9.5M−5.5% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,359,937Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale18,262 @ $31.01$566K−0.3% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,326,704Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale17,788 @ $29.86$531K−0.3% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,672,804Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale14,971 @ $30.40$455K−0.3% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,344,966Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale876 @ $31.01$27K−0.0% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,325,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale853 @ $29.86$25K−0.0% of holding−7.9%−12.3%5,671,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale238,674 @ $29.73$7.1M−4.0% of holding−2.5%−7.8%5,702,043Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-25Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale11,451 @ $29.73$340K−0.2% of holding−2.5%−7.8%5,690,592Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-24Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale46,005 @ $29.59$1.4M−0.8% of holding−0.7%−8.6%5,942,925Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale2,208 @ $29.59$65K−0.0% of holding−0.7%−8.6%5,940,717Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale258,997 @ $29.54$7.7M−4.0% of holding−4.5%−12.5%6,176,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale167,108 @ $30.14$5.0M−2.7% of holding−4.5%−12.5%5,996,948Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale12,428 @ $29.54$367K−0.2% of holding−4.5%−12.5%6,164,056Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale8,018 @ $30.14$242K−0.1% of holding−4.5%−12.5%5,988,930Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale3,291 @ $28.77$95K−0.1% of holding−4.5%−12.5%6,435,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale158 @ $28.77$5K−0.0% of holding−4.5%−12.5%6,435,481Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-22Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale74,617 @ $29.37$2.2M−1.1% of holding−2.3%−12.5%6,442,511Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-22Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale3,581 @ $29.37$105K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−12.5%6,438,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-21Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale40,743 @ $29.03$1.2M−0.6% of holding+0.9%−10.5%6,519,082Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-21Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale1,954 @ $29.03$57K−0.0% of holding+0.9%−10.5%6,517,128Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-18Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale192,481 @ $28.81$5.5M−2.8% of holding+1.4%−11.5%6,569,703Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-18Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale9,237 @ $28.81$266K−0.1% of holding+1.4%−11.5%6,560,466Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-18Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale641 @ $28.49$18K−0.0% of holding+1.4%−11.5%6,559,825Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-17Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale42,941 @ $28.51$1.2M−0.6% of holding+1.7%−6.6%6,764,872Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-17Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale2,059 @ $28.51$59K−0.0% of holding+1.7%−6.6%6,762,813Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-17Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale629 @ $28.80$18K−0.0% of holding+1.7%−6.6%6,762,184Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-16Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale119,274 @ $28.81$3.4M−1.7% of holding−0.5%−5.9%6,813,539Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-16Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale5,726 @ $28.81$165K−0.1% of holding−0.5%−5.9%6,807,813Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-14Abdiel Capital Advisors, LPtenPercentOwnerSale6,666 @ $30.12$201K−0.1% of holding−5.9%+1.7%6,933,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorOption exercise10,80010,800Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorOption exercise10,8000Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,8000Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80010,800Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80010,800Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80010,800Form 4
2026-09-09Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80010,800Form 4
2026-08-05Tanjga SrdjanofficerWithheld for tax28,35039,799Form 4
2026-08-05Dorsey MarkofficerWithheld for tax1,35217,174Form 4
2026-08-05Tanjga SrdjanofficerOption exercise58,92068,149Form 4
2026-08-05Dorsey MarkofficerOption exercise4,53318,526Form 4
2026-08-05Dorsey MarkofficerOption exercise4,53313,599Form 4
2026-08-05Tanjga SrdjanofficerOption exercise58,920176,670Form 4
2026-08-04Tanjga SrdjanofficerAward / grant52,72852,728Form 4
2026-07-01Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorAward / grant1,3641,364Form 4
2026-07-01Link David ForrestdirectorAward / grant1,3643,431Form 4
2026-07-01Hartman Carl Joseph IIdirectorAward / grant1,3648,556Form 4
2026-07-01Edwards Shirley AnndirectorAward / grant1,36414,183Form 4
2026-07-01Lynch Mark StevendirectorAward / grant1,36446,628Form 4
2026-05-06Zamudio-Ramirez PavelofficerWithheld for tax3,31433,062Form 4
2026-05-06Zamudio-Ramirez PavelofficerOption exercise10,27236,376Form 4
2026-05-05Zamudio-Ramirez PavelofficerAward / grant15,84815,848Form 4
2026-05-05Zamudio-Ramirez PavelofficerOption exercise2,9358,805Form 4
2026-05-05Zamudio-Ramirez PavelofficerOption exercise7,3370Form 4
2026-04-10Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorOption exercise10,80010,800Form 4
2026-04-10Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorOption exercise10,80010,800Form 4
2026-04-10Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80010,800Form 4
2026-04-10Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80012,096Form 4
2026-04-10Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorConversion10,80012,096Form 4
2026-04-01Lynch Mark StevendirectorAward / grant1,29645,264Form 4
2026-04-01Edwards Shirley AnndirectorAward / grant1,29612,819Form 4
2026-04-01Hartman Carl Joseph IIdirectorAward / grant1,2967,192Form 4
2026-04-01Kilberg Bobbie GdirectorAward / grant1,2961,296Form 4
2026-04-01Link David ForrestdirectorAward / grant1,2962,067Form 4
2026-04-01McCarthy William D.directorAward / grant1,29614,243Form 4
2026-03-05Tanjga SrdjanofficerWithheld for tax7,0489,229Form 4
2026-03-05Dorsey MarkofficerWithheld for tax1,1558,766Form 4
2026-03-05Dorsey MarkofficerOption exercise3,75011,250Form 4
2026-03-05Tanjga SrdjanofficerOption exercise16,27748,831Form 4
2026-03-05Dorsey MarkofficerOption exercise3,7509,921Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.