Issued 2026-09-16 at $221.17 · now $221.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APPF has typically landed between $186.89 and $260.96 — a range of −15.5% to +18.0% from the issuance price $221.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,801 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($221.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APPF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $221.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $221.17 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $223.86 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $208.07–$239.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $186.89–$260.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,801 windows spanning 2015-06-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −39.1% | −39.7% | +2.8% |
| 2020-02-20 | −38.8% | −40.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −38.3% | −38.3% | +5.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-04 | +64.0% | +0.0% | +64.0% |
| 2020-05-01 | +55.8% | −2.4% | +55.8% |
| 2020-05-05 | +52.9% | +0.0% | +54.8% |
2,801 overlapping windows · 2015-06-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Feb
45%
+1.7%
n=11
Mar
64%
−0.9%
n=11
Apr
55%
+3.3%
n=11
May
64%
+7.1%
n=11
Jun
82%
+5.5%
n=11
Jul
75%
+4.9%
n=12
Aug
83%
+9.6%
n=12
Sep
50%
−0.8%
n=12
Oct
55%
−1.3%
n=11
Nov
55%
+3.2%
n=11
Dec
36%
−1.6%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,006 @ $222.43 | $224K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,194 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 694 @ $224.13 | $156K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 365 @ $221.37 | $81K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 183 @ $216.38 | $40K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,657 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 94 @ $222.42 | $21K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,062 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 92 @ $218.14 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,565 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 92 @ $214.73 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,840 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 62 @ $224.14 | $14K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35 @ $221.41 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,156 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17 @ $216.38 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,199 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8 @ $218.14 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,191 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8 @ $214.71 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,216 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,947 @ $218.45 | $425K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,550 @ $217.67 | $337K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,658 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 701 @ $219.35 | $154K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,010 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 702 @ $216.43 | $152K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 622 @ $215.37 | $134K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,910 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 551 @ $218.46 | $120K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 452 @ $217.68 | $98K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,996 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 199 @ $219.35 | $44K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 198 @ $216.44 | $43K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,448 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 178 @ $215.37 | $38K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 78 @ $220.06 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,932 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22 @ $220.06 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,224 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,005 @ $213.78 | $429K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,801 @ $214.94 | $387K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 781 @ $212.64 | $166K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 584 @ $213.78 | $125K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 510 @ $214.94 | $110K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Sale | 373 @ $202.61 | $76K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 312 @ $215.60 | $67K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 234 @ $211.18 | $49K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 219 @ $212.64 | $47K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 156 @ $209.12 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 132 @ $206.45 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 88 @ $215.60 | $19K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 78 @ $203.98 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 78 @ $202.61 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66 @ $211.18 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44 @ $209.12 | $9K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 38 @ $206.46 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23 @ $207.27 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,821 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22 @ $203.98 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22 @ $202.61 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7 @ $207.27 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,588 @ $203.88 | $528K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000 @ $204.98 | $205K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 755 @ $203.88 | $154K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 576 @ $201.49 | $116K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 434 @ $205.95 | $89K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 359 @ $202.77 | $73K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 356 @ $200.29 | $71K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 314 @ $203.87 | $64K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 281 @ $204.98 | $58K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 164 @ $198.90 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 160 @ $201.49 | $32K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 122 @ $205.95 | $25K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 123 @ $197.80 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 113 @ $204.98 | $23K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DUCA MAURICE J | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 102 @ $200.29 | $20K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
30 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 984 | 74,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 797 | 72,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 599 | 75,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 539 | 75,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 378 | 73,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 315 | 17,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 300 | 21,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 269 | 20,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 219 | 74,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Trigg William Shane | director | Withheld for tax | 202 | 74,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 170 | 17,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 160 | 17,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 147 | 20,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 142 | 20,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 125 | 17,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 110 | 20,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 102 | 20,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 88 | 20,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barat Elizabeth Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 86 | 20,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Pickering Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 80 | 5,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 75 | 17,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Pickering Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 64 | 5,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Rigler Don | officer | Withheld for tax | 62 | 4,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Pickering Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 54 | 5,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Rigler Don | officer | Withheld for tax | 45 | 4,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 41 | 17,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Pickering Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 39 | 5,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 35 | 17,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | officer | Withheld for tax | 28 | 17,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Pickering Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 27 | 5,733 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.