Issued 2026-09-16 at $326.56 · now $326.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APP has typically landed between $231.00 and $458.93 — a range of −29.3% to +40.5% from the issuance price $326.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,341 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($326.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $326.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $326.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $333.31 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $283.23–$383.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $231–$458.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-14 | −45.3% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +4.1% |
| 2026-01-13 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-06 | +138.2% | +0.0% | +138.2% |
| 2024-11-04 | +134.9% | +0.0% | +134.9% |
| 2024-11-05 | +129.5% | +0.0% | +129.5% |
1,341 overlapping windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$123.40
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$398.15
- Analyst target · range $340.00–$775.00$662.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$326.56
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 1,140 @ $523.49 | $597K | −0.9% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 412 @ $522.42 | $215K | −0.3% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 380 @ $516.25 | $196K | −0.3% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 262 @ $524.12 | $137K | −0.2% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 240 @ $519.56 | $125K | −0.2% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 202 @ $517.19 | $104K | −0.2% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 182 @ $518.63 | $94K | −0.1% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 138 @ $520.60 | $72K | −0.1% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Sale | 120 @ $521.49 | $63K | −0.1% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 19,421 @ $498.52 | $9.7M | −0.3% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,907,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 17,871 @ $499.46 | $8.9M | −0.3% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,889,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 13,628 @ $497.50 | $6.8M | −0.2% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,926,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 11,122 @ $503.50 | $5.6M | −0.2% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,860,598 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 10,683 @ $512.54 | $5.5M | −0.2% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,797,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 9,693 @ $504.42 | $4.9M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,850,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 9,319 @ $505.46 | $4.7M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,841,586 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 8,198 @ $506.45 | $4.2M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,833,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,991 @ $502.61 | $3.5M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,871,720 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,523 @ $509.54 | $3.3M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,820,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,456 @ $510.43 | $3.3M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,814,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 6,177 @ $511.59 | $3.2M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,807,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 5,895 @ $501.43 | $3.0M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,878,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 5,311 @ $514.35 | $2.7M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,786,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 5,260 @ $513.39 | $2.7M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,791,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 4,869 @ $500.39 | $2.4M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,884,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 4,695 @ $496.49 | $2.3M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,940,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 4,222 @ $507.43 | $2.1M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,829,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 3,754 @ $495.49 | $1.9M | −0.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,945,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 2,156 @ $508.50 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,827,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 547 @ $518.22 | $283K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,785,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 408 @ $515.14 | $210K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,786,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 348 @ $520.30 | $181K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,785,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 153 @ $494.84 | $76K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,948,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 100 @ $516.81 | $52K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,786,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 70 @ $517.60 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,786,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Sale | 40 @ $519.50 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,785,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 4,884 @ $495.01 | $2.4M | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,337,006 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 4,257 @ $496.91 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,330,278 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 3,421 @ $485.66 | $1.7M | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,353,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 2,820 @ $494.01 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,341,890 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 2,471 @ $496.09 | $1.2M | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,334,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 2,324 @ $476.36 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,365,347 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 2,160 @ $484.73 | $1.0M | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,356,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 2,003 @ $491.94 | $985K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,346,465 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,755 @ $493.14 | $865K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,344,710 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,674 @ $498.03 | $834K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,328,604 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,699 @ $486.82 | $827K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,351,777 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,610 @ $477.34 | $769K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,363,737 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,280 @ $487.62 | $624K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,350,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,284 @ $482.47 | $619K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,360,137 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,160 @ $490.92 | $569K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,348,468 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 1,080 @ $483.69 | $522K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,359,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 920 @ $498.91 | $459K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,327,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 860 @ $478.32 | $411K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,362,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 840 @ $475.39 | $399K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,367,671 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 840 @ $473.92 | $398K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,368,511 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 812 @ $481.71 | $391K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,361,421 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 600 @ $489.94 | $294K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,349,628 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 360 @ $479.52 | $173K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,362,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Sale | 284 @ $480.51 | $136K | −0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,362,233 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Ge Xiaochuan | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,459 | 968,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 2,730 | 2,324,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Valenzuela Victoria | director | Withheld for tax | 2,730 | 241,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stumpf Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,021 | 175,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Cacovean Corina I | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,540 | 4,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Gift | 100,000 | 151,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Conversion | 143,791 | 251,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Conversion | 143,791 | 223,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Conversion | 143,791 | 223,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Conversion | 143,791 | 223,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chen Herald Y | director | Conversion | 143,791 | 223,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Gift | 213,675 | 6,571,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Gift | 213,675 | 213,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Messing Barbara | director | Award / grant | 40 | 10,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Award / grant | 41 | 3,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Gift | 16,667 | 2,411,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Award / grant | 525 | 14,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Georgiadis Mary Margaret Hastings | director | Award / grant | 525 | 36,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Vivas Eduardo | director | Award / grant | 525 | 6,948,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Messing Barbara | director | Award / grant | 525 | 10,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Award / grant | 525 | 3,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Chen Herald Y | director | Award / grant | 525 | 207,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Billings Craig Scott | director | Award / grant | 525 | 4,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Shikin Vasily | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,730 | 3,252,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Foroughi Arash Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 2,730 | 2,427,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Valenzuela Victoria | director | Withheld for tax | 2,730 | 263,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Stumpf Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,341 | 186,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dorosh Dmitriy | officer | Withheld for tax | 331 | 111,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Gift | 20,920 | 126,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | WEBB MAYNARD G JR | director | Award / grant | 37 | 2,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Messing Barbara | director | Award / grant | 37 | 9,625 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-18 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.