Issued 2026-09-16 at $124.53 · now $124.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APO has typically landed between $104.26 and $146.38 — a range of −16.3% to +17.5% from the issuance price $124.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,868 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-03-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($124.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $124.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $124.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $126.68 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.52–$135.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $104.26–$146.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,868 windows spanning 2011-03-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −42.2% | −42.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −38.8% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +51.7% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
| 2020-03-24 | +38.5% | +0.0% | +42.5% |
| 2016-02-11 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +38.2% |
3,868 overlapping windows · 2011-03-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$70.7B
market cap
$3.34
EPS (TTM)
36.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$30.3B
'20'25
Net income$4.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$544.04
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$54.72
- Analyst target · range $142.00–$165.00$145.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$124.53
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+5.8%
n=15
Feb
53%
+0.0%
n=15
Mar
33%
−3.5%
n=15
Apr
56%
+3.7%
n=16
May
56%
+2.0%
n=16
Jun
63%
+2.3%
n=16
Jul
69%
+4.2%
n=16
Aug
38%
−0.3%
n=16
Sep
50%
−1.8%
n=16
Oct
67%
+4.7%
n=15
Nov
67%
+6.7%
n=15
Dec
60%
+1.3%
n=15
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $140.84 | $423K | −0.8% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,533 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Zito John P. | officer | Sale | 20,019 @ $130.71 | $2.6M | −0.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,074,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Zito John P. | officer | Sale | 17,508 @ $129.95 | $2.3M | −0.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,094,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Zito John P. | officer | Sale | 11,117 @ $131.68 | $1.5M | −0.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,063,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $134.64 | $943K | −1.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 401,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Sale | 8,500 @ $146.03 | $1.2M | −10.2% of holding | −4.9% | −17.9% | 74,692 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $131.41 | $788K | −1.8% of holding | +9.6% | −16.1% | 325,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | BLACK LEON D | other | Sale | 915,000 @ $134.03 | $122.6M | −16.8% of holding | −10.0% | −22.9% | 4,526,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 10,935 @ $144.95 | $1.6M | −3.1% of holding | −7.7% | −19.8% | 336,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 4,565 @ $145.50 | $664K | −1.4% of holding | −7.7% | −19.8% | 332,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $146.03 | $657K | −5.1% of holding | −11.8% | −20.6% | 83,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | RICHARDS PAULINE | director | Purchase | 550 @ $141.95 | $78K | +0.6% of holding | −6.6% | −25.6% | 86,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $132.57 | $530K | −1.1% of holding | −5.0% | −19.9% | 373,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | BLACK LEON D | other | Sale | 607,725 @ $111.39 | $67.7M | −1.8% of holding | +8.4% | −16.3% | 33,997,048 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | LB 2018 GST Trust | other | Purchase | 607,725 @ $111.39 | $67.7M | +4331.9% of holding | +8.4% | −16.3% | 621,754 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BLACK LEON D | other | Sale | 498,071 @ $142.00 | $70.7M | −1.4% of holding | −4.7% | −16.7% | 34,606,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BLACK LEON D | other | Sale | 1,929 @ $142.52 | $275K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −16.7% | 34,604,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $158.28 | $791K | −1.3% of holding | −4.9% | −17.3% | 377,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $173.66 | $1.7M | −3.2% of holding | −8.2% | −23.6% | 307,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Tanguy Louis-Jacques | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $176.50 | $441K | −9.8% of holding | −8.2% | −23.6% | 23,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 160,843 @ $172.29 | $27.7M | −24.9% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 486,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 124,561 @ $174.24 | $21.7M | −32.1% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 263,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 98,116 @ $172.99 | $17.0M | −20.2% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 388,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 39,990 @ $177.23 | $7.1M | −18.0% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 181,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 33,308 @ $176.15 | $5.9M | −13.1% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 221,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 16,654 @ $177.98 | $3.0M | −9.2% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 165,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 8,618 @ $175.24 | $1.5M | −3.3% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 255,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 5,147 @ $172.35 | $887K | −0.8% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 630,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $178.87 | $698K | −2.4% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 161,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $174.28 | $627K | −0.6% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 624,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 2,363 @ $173.10 | $409K | −0.4% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 627,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $176.88 | $195K | −0.2% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 622,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 800 @ $177.66 | $142K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 621,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 700 @ $175.75 | $123K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 623,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Zelter James C | director | Sale | 300 @ $178.48 | $54K | −0.0% of holding | −6.2% | −19.9% | 621,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 284,155 @ $173.58 | $49.3M | −40.5% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 418,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 71,827 @ $173.58 | $12.5M | −78.8% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 19,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 37,903 @ $174.39 | $6.6M | −9.1% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 380,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 16,587 @ $173.58 | $2.9M | −4.1% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 386,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 14,207 @ $173.58 | $2.5M | −0.3% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 4,678,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 9,581 @ $174.39 | $1.7M | −49.5% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 9,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 2,212 @ $174.39 | $386K | −0.6% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 383,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 1,895 @ $174.39 | $330K | −0.0% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 4,676,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 466 @ $173.58 | $81K | −0.9% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 50,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 62 @ $174.39 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −1.5% | −22.4% | 50,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 37,585 @ $173.66 | $6.5M | −8.5% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 402,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 19,562 @ $173.66 | $3.4M | −17.7% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 91,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Kelly Martin | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $172.61 | $863K | −1.5% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 320,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Sale | 4,613 @ $173.23 | $799K | −3.7% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 119,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 3,945 @ $173.66 | $685K | −7.1% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 51,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Sale | 1,587 @ $173.75 | $276K | −1.3% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 117,701 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Sale | 13 @ $173.66 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 702,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Belardi James Richard | director | Gift | 38,605 | 37,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Kelly Martin | officer | Gift | 1,534 | 399,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | BLACK LEON D | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | BLACK LEON D | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | BLACK LEON D | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | BLACK LEON D | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LDB 2014 LLC | other | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 3,647,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LDB 2014 LLC | other | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 3,647,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LDB 2014 LLC | other | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 3,647,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LDB 2014 LLC | other | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 3,647,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | COHN GARY D | director | Award / grant | 1,986 | 7,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Leach Brian | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 43,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | O'Neill Mitra | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 33,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Healey Kerry Murphy | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 22,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Toomey Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 11,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SWANN LYNN C | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 20,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | JOYNER PAMELA J | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 16,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BEILINSON MARC A | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 115,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BIBLIOWICZ JESSICA M | director | Award / grant | 1,589 | 17,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Kelly Martin | officer | Gift | 1,300 | 399,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Gift | 13,424 | 226,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 3,170 | 81,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kelly Martin | officer | Gift | 155 | 401,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kelly Martin | officer | Gift | 415 | 401,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | ROWAN MARC J | director | Gift | 140,000 | 1,552,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Leach Brian | director | Award / grant | 1,967 | 41,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | BIBLIOWICZ JESSICA M | director | Award / grant | 1,574 | 16,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | COHN GARY D | director | Award / grant | 3,345 | 5,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | O'Neill Mitra | director | Award / grant | 1,771 | 32,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Zito John P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,866 | 3,112,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,899 | 136,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Kelly Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,629 | 408,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Zelter James C | director | Withheld for tax | 319 | 5,017,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Belardi James Richard | director | Withheld for tax | 29,254 | 99,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kvalheim Grant | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,042 | 2,171,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | KLEINMAN SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 2,048 | 77,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Belardi James Richard | director | Option exercise | 147,813 | 224,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Belardi James Richard | director | Option exercise | 147,813 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Chatterjee Whitney | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,349 | 141,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Kelly Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,390 | 412,266 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Dwight Evans | House | sale | 2025-12-19 | 2025-11-21 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.