APLDApplied Digital Corp.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.39 · now $24.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APLD has typically landed between $15.18 and $42.65 — a range of −37.7% to +74.9% from the issuance price $24.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,086 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-04-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.18worst · -37.7%$42.65best · +74.9%
  • now $24.39 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.29 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.74–$30.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.18–$42.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,086 windows spanning 2022-04-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-06-01−80.1%−80.1%+0.0%
2022-06-02−78.8%−79.9%+0.0%
2022-05-31−78.3%−79.1%+0.6%
3 best
2023-05-12+206.3%+0.0%+236.5%
2023-04-24+204.0%−3.7%+204.0%
2023-05-03+199.7%−7.7%+199.7%

1,086 overlapping windows · 2022-04-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+19.0%
n=4
Feb
25%
−10.2%
n=4
Mar
25%
−13.8%
n=4
Apr
50%
+7.8%
n=4
May
100%
+70.0%
n=5
Jun
60%
+0.1%
n=5
Jul
60%
+18.0%
n=5
Aug
40%
−7.1%
n=5
Sep
60%
+28.1%
n=5
Oct
50%
+10.9%
n=4
Nov
25%
+2.5%
n=4
Dec
25%
+1.2%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$50$142026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Nottenburg Richard N2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $432K — Nottenburg Richard N2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $400K — Nottenburg Richard N2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $350K — MILLER DOUGLAS S2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — HASTINGS CHUCK2026-01-16: 1 insider sale, $6.0M — Cummins Wes2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $425K — Nottenburg Richard N2026-01-14: 1 insider sale, $409K — Nottenburg Richard N2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $385K — MILLER DOUGLAS S2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $216K — MILLER DOUGLAS S2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $199K — Benson Ella G.2025-10-31: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — HASTINGS CHUCK, Nottenburg Richard N2025-10-30: 1 insider sale, $174K — Nottenburg Richard N2025-10-29: 2 insider sales, $3.3M — HASTINGS CHUCK, Benson Ella G.2025-10-28: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway2025-10-24: 3 insider sales, $5.4M — Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway, Nottenburg Richard N, Lee Rachel H.2025-09-03: 3 insider sales, $7.6M — Cummins Wes, Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway, Nottenburg Richard N2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $442K — HASTINGS CHUCK2025-08: 6 open-market sales, $2.4M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $7.6M2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $11.4M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $415K2026-01: 5 open-market sales, $9.0M2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed same daydirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MILLER DOUGLAS S — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HASTINGS CHUCK — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cummins Wes — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed same daydirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MILLER DOUGLAS S — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MILLER DOUGLAS S — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Benson Ella G. — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HASTINGS CHUCK — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed same daydirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed same daydirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2025-10-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HASTINGS CHUCK — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Benson Ella G. — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed same dayofficer Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lee Rachel H. — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Cummins Wes — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanway — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nottenburg Richard N — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HASTINGS CHUCK — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale75,000 @ $31.15$2.3M−36.0% of holding−19.5%not yet — horizon still open133,378Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-30Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale12,500 @ $34.59$432K−5.7% of holding+34.4%not yet — horizon still open208,378Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-28Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale12,500 @ $32.00$400K−5.4% of holding+48.6%not yet — horizon still open220,878Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27MILLER DOUGLAS SdirectorSale10,000 @ $34.98$350K−5.1% of holding+40.5%not yet — horizon still open184,859Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-29HASTINGS CHUCKdirectorSale45,987 @ $38.57$1.8M−10.6% of holding−25.5%−36.3%388,372Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-16Cummins WesdirectorSale165,000 @ $36.42$6.0M−3.8% of holding−13.9%−28.4%4,176,329Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-15Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale12,000 @ $35.45$425K−4.9% of holding−3.4%−28.7%233,378Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale11,606 @ $35.28$409K−4.5% of holding−1.0%−36.8%245,378Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-12MILLER DOUGLAS SdirectorSale10,000 @ $38.54$385K−4.7% of holding−3.8%−33.2%200,859Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-28MILLER DOUGLAS SdirectorSale8,000 @ $26.98$216K−3.7% of holding−12.0%+64.8%210,859Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-24Benson Ella G.directorSale8,581 @ $23.22$199K−11.1% of holding+4.6%+95.2%68,422Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31HASTINGS CHUCKdirectorSale25,000 @ $34.27$857K−5.5% of holding−19.0%+8.3%426,612Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-31Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale9,375 @ $35.91$337K−3.6% of holding−19.0%+8.3%249,237Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-30Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale5,000 @ $34.80$174K−1.9% of holding−17.0%−1.3%258,612Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-29HASTINGS CHUCKdirectorSale50,000 @ $35.69$1.8M−10.0% of holding−20.7%−8.0%451,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-29Benson Ella G.directorSale42,569 @ $35.30$1.5M−38.1% of holding−20.7%−8.0%69,256Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerSale37,503 @ $36.47$1.4M−23.6% of holding−26.3%−5.4%121,409Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-24Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerSale100,000 @ $34.08$3.4M−38.6% of holding−27.6%−9.6%158,912Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale34,375 @ $33.23$1.1M−11.5% of holding−27.6%−9.6%263,612Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Lee Rachel H.directorSale24,213 @ $33.20$804K−29.0% of holding−27.6%−9.6%59,400Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-03Cummins WesdirectorSale400,000 @ $15.26$6.1M−13.1% of holding+79.8%+88.9%2,659,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerSale75,000 @ $15.26$1.1M−27.1% of holding+79.8%+88.9%201,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale20,000 @ $15.26$305K−6.3% of holding+79.8%+88.9%297,987Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12HASTINGS CHUCKdirectorSale30,000 @ $14.73$442K−5.6% of holding+12.4%+136.2%501,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale11,250 @ $14.22$160K−3.4% of holding+5.0%+159.9%317,987Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07MILLER DOUGLAS SdirectorSale10,000 @ $15.00$150K−4.5% of holding−4.9%+135.6%211,112Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04HASTINGS CHUCKdirectorSale100,000 @ $13.33$1.3M−15.8% of holding+1.1%+153.2%531,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale13,686 @ $12.50$171K−4.0% of holding+1.1%+153.2%329,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04MILLER DOUGLAS SdirectorSale10,000 @ $13.63$136K−4.3% of holding+1.1%+153.2%221,112Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Lee Rachel H.directorSale24,212 @ $7.00$169K−22.5% of holding+42.3%+226.2%83,613Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Benson Ella G.directorSale18,242 @ $6.50$119K−14.0% of holding+60.3%+232.5%111,825Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-17Nottenburg Richard NdirectorSale20,000 @ $8.85$177K−5.5% of holding+9.2%+17.2%342,923Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-12Zhang Jason GechenofficerWithheld for tax49,1882,539,227Form 4
2026-08-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerOther acquisition13,408888,431Form 4
2026-08-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerOther acquisition13,408888,431Form 4
2026-08-04Cummins WesdirectorOther acquisition714,68512,798Form 4
2026-08-04Cummins WesdirectorOther acquisition714,68512,798Form 4
2026-07-31Cummins WesdirectorWithheld for tax629,6005,758,000Form 4
2026-07-31Laltrello LauraofficerWithheld for tax260,640813,156Form 4
2026-07-31Zhang Jason GechenofficerWithheld for tax236,1002,588,415Form 4
2026-07-31Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerWithheld for tax96,408875,023Form 4
2026-07-31Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerAward / grant245,000971,431Form 4
2026-07-31Cummins WesdirectorAward / grant1,600,0006,387,600Form 4
2026-07-31Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant600,0002,824,515Form 4
2026-07-31Laltrello LauraofficerAward / grant600,0001,073,796Form 4
2026-07-31Cummins WesdirectorAward / grant1,600,0006,387,600Form 4
2026-07-31Laltrello LauraofficerAward / grant600,0001,073,796Form 4
2026-07-31Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerAward / grant245,000971,431Form 4
2026-07-31Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant600,0002,824,515Form 4
2026-07-06Laltrello LauraofficerWithheld for tax43,440473,796Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerWithheld for tax147,5632,224,515Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerWithheld for tax118,0501,997,078Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant375,0002,372,078Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant300,0002,115,128Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant300,0002,115,128Form 4
2026-07-01Zhang Jason GechenofficerAward / grant375,0002,372,078Form 4
2026-06-22Cummins WesdirectorWithheld for tax314,8004,787,600Form 4
2026-06-22Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerWithheld for tax192,815726,431Form 4
2026-06-22Cummins WesdirectorAward / grant800,0005,102,400Form 4
2026-06-22Cummins WesdirectorAward / grant800,0005,102,400Form 4
2026-06-22Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerAward / grant490,000919,246Form 4
2026-06-22Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerAward / grant490,000919,246Form 4
2026-04-10Cummins WesdirectorWithheld for tax39,3504,302,400Form 4
2026-04-10Cummins WesdirectorOption exercise100,000300,000Form 4
2026-04-10Cummins WesdirectorOption exercise100,0004,341,750Form 4
2026-04-10Cummins WesdirectorOption exercise100,0004,341,750Form 4
2026-04-04Cummins WesdirectorWithheld for tax34,5794,241,750Form 4
2026-04-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerWithheld for tax32,136429,246Form 4
2026-04-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerWithheld for tax4,194379,715Form 4
2026-04-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerOption exercise12,5000Form 4
2026-04-04Cummins WesdirectorOption exercise100,0000Form 4
2026-04-04Mohmand Mohammad Saidal LaVanwayofficerOption exercise81,667245,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.