Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.26 · now $77.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APH has typically landed between $68.55 and $88.66 — a range of −11.3% to +14.7% from the issuance price $77.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $77.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $79.12 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $74.93–$83.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $68.55–$88.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-17 | −54.8% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | −53.5% | −53.5% | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-04 | −53.3% | −54.0% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-19 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +37.5% |
| 2025-04-21 | +35.7% | +0.0% | +36.6% |
| 2025-04-04 | +34.9% | +0.0% | +36.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$187.8B
market cap
$3.48
EPS (TTM)
43.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$23.1B
'20'25
Net income$4.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.16
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$77.77
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$119.03
- Analyst target · range $165.00–$215.00$192.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$77.26
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
68%
+5.3%
n=19
May
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
−2.2%
n=19
Sep
37%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
83%
+2.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $174.24 | $20.9M | −88.4% of holding | −52.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,672 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 193,200 @ $167.31 | $32.3M | −68.1% of holding | −52.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $161.99 | $8.1M | −46.7% of holding | −50.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $161.82 | $6.5M | −100.0% of holding | −50.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $161.82 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −50.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $161.57 | $80.8M | −20.6% of holding | −53.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,927,507 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 186,104 @ $162.27 | $30.2M | −17.7% of holding | −53.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 864,177 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 17,500 @ $143.21 | $2.5M | −0.9% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,927,507 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 52,203 @ $142.04 | $7.4M | −2.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,927,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 61,072 @ $143.90 | $8.8M | −3.1% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,927,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $149.98 | $15.0M | −47.1% of holding | −7.7% | −6.7% | 112,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $149.88 | $7.5M | −46.7% of holding | −7.7% | −6.7% | 57,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 515,281 @ $147.27 | $75.9M | −21.1% of holding | −3.0% | +2.1% | 1,927,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 93,052 @ $147.17 | $13.7M | −9.7% of holding | −3.0% | +2.1% | 864,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Livingston Robert | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $128.51 | $1.3M | +8.0% of holding | +6.5% | +18.3% | 135,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Straub Peter | officer | Sale | 132,000 @ $141.84 | $18.7M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −7.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 80,000 @ $142.00 | $11.4M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −7.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 258,000 @ $143.20 | $36.9M | −60.6% of holding | −4.0% | −19.8% | 167,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 40,076 @ $143.50 | $5.8M | −50.1% of holding | −4.0% | −19.8% | 39,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Ivas Michael R. | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $140.05 | $16.8M | −44.1% of holding | −0.8% | −16.9% | 152,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $141.17 | $16.9M | −90.6% of holding | −2.1% | −9.8% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-31 | Ivas Michael R. | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $141.30 | $17.0M | −44.1% of holding | +1.6% | −8.2% | 152,412 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 120,000 @ $140.01 | $16.8M | −61.1% of holding | +1.4% | −3.2% | 76,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 80,000 @ $141.04 | $11.3M | −100.0% of holding | +1.4% | −3.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | WALTER LUC | officer | Sale | 212,800 @ $134.65 | $28.7M | −32.9% of holding | +4.3% | +2.1% | 433,742 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | WALTER LUC | officer | Sale | 152,318 @ $134.65 | $20.5M | −26.0% of holding | +4.3% | +2.1% | 433,742 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Straub Peter | officer | Sale | 44,000 @ $110.64 | $4.9M | −100.0% of holding | +9.4% | +19.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $110.42 | $11.0M | −88.9% of holding | +9.2% | +31.1% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 40,076 @ $110.56 | $4.4M | −50.1% of holding | +9.2% | +31.1% | 39,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 199,848 @ $110.43 | $22.1M | −61.4% of holding | +11.8% | +31.9% | 125,695 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $110.60 | $11.1M | −56.7% of holding | +4.3% | +26.2% | 76,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $110.81 | $3.3M | −28.2% of holding | +4.3% | +26.2% | 76,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 113,000 @ $110.29 | $12.5M | −100.0% of holding | +5.9% | +22.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 113,000 @ $108.89 | $12.3M | −100.0% of holding | +4.1% | +22.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Ivas Michael R. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $110.02 | $5.5M | −24.7% of holding | +4.1% | +22.0% | 152,412 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | WALTER LUC | officer | Sale | 286,000 @ $91.43 | $26.1M | −38.8% of holding | +3.5% | +39.8% | 451,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 160,000 @ $89.54 | $14.3M | −100.0% of holding | +3.4% | +40.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $89.09 | $8.9M | −88.9% of holding | +3.4% | +40.6% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Ivas Michael R. | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $88.79 | $3.6M | −20.8% of holding | +6.2% | +40.6% | 152,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $86.36 | $8.6M | −56.7% of holding | +7.4% | +50.7% | 76,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 90,000 @ $80.28 | $7.2M | −100.0% of holding | +8.5% | +52.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 87,500 @ $80.03 | $7.0M | −87.5% of holding | +8.5% | +52.3% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 36,000 @ $80.28 | $2.9M | −100.0% of holding | +8.5% | +52.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $75.73 | $151.5M | −50.0% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 2,002,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Sale | 400,000 @ $75.93 | $30.4M | −80.0% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | WALTER LUC | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $75.91 | $15.2M | −30.9% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 447,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | WALTER LUC | officer | Sale | 190,000 @ $75.91 | $14.4M | −29.8% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 447,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 175,000 @ $76.28 | $13.3M | −77.3% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 51,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Silverman David M | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $75.88 | $7.6M | −100.0% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Doherty William J | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $75.49 | $7.5M | −100.0% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $76.22 | $2.3M | −100.0% of holding | +9.1% | +53.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Gift | 54,547 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Silverman David M | officer | Option exercise | 120,000 | 135,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Silverman David M | officer | Option exercise | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Option exercise | 193,200 | 283,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Option exercise | 193,200 | 193,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 107,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 2,427,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 186,104 | 1,050,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 399,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 186,104 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | WALTER LUC | officer | Award / grant | 108,809 | 108,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Doherty William J | officer | Award / grant | 108,809 | 108,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ivas Michael R. | officer | Award / grant | 51,134 | 51,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Award / grant | 133,161 | 133,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Award / grant | 464,989 | 464,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Silverman David M | officer | Award / grant | 70,690 | 70,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Straub Peter | officer | Award / grant | 108,809 | 108,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Altobello Nancy A. | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Falck David P | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lamba Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lane Rita S. | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Livingston Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Wolff Anne Clarke | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 1,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Award / grant | 83,020 | 83,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Gift | 43,086 | 43,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Gift | 21,508 | 86,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Gift | 21,508 | 21,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | D'AMICO LANCE E | officer | Gift | 43,086 | 64,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Other acquisition | 41,203 | 70,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Other acquisition | 41,203 | 70,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Gift | 34,499 | 137,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lampo Craig A | officer | Gift | 69,108 | 83,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 1,945,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | NORWITT RICHARD ADAM | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 899,788 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Rick Larsen | House | purchase | 2026-07-12 | 2026-07-08 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-22 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2025-05-24 | 2025-04-10 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2025-05-24 | 2025-04-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.